Thursday College Football: North Texas @ Arkansas St

[Tinfish]

North Texas (6-4) at Arkansas State (3-7)

My Play: North Texas -5

North Texas has won 6 straight games, which have also all been conference games. Not only have they won SU, but they have won ATS, including two games on the road. They started the season playing Big 12 opponents Texas, Colorado, and Baylor. Texas and Colorado skewed North Texas's numbers. North Texas leads the Sun Belt Conference with nearly 2000 rushing yards and 4.8 yards per carry. Last weekend, Freshman RB, Jamario Thomas, ran for 291 yards and tied an NCAA mark with his fifth straight 200-yard game in a 51-29 victory over Idaho. Furthermore, North Texas's Scott Hall has 1484 yards with 10 Touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. North Texas only averages 0.2 INT's (2nd in nation) and 1 TO (10th in nation) per game.

Arkansas State is just terrible. After watching them play, I realized how slow they really are on defense. They needed a punt return for a touchdown to cover the spread last weekend. They don't have much to play for any more, as their season is pretty much over. Their offense can put points on the board, but their defense is just terrible. They allow nearly 200 yards per game (97th) and 4.6 yards per carry (91st). Arkansas State loves to turn the ball over at a whopping 2.6 (107th) per game. On top of that, they make mental mistakes, averaging 8.6 (111th) per game losing 65.5 yards (92nd).

Both teams can score, as UNT's defense is not it's strong point, but remember Texas and Colorado skewed those numbers. Once UNT establishes the run, Arkansas State will be forced to stack the box, opening up the passing game, where UNT has been very effective. Arkansas State will commit costly errors, including penalties and turnovers, so that North Texas will easily pull away.

Predicted Outcome: North Texas 35 Arkansas State 21