Sunday NFL Plays

[Tinfish]

St. Louis @ Carolina

The Obvious:
Carolina scoring a ton of points.
St. Louis playing for their playoff lives.

The Rams have averaged 18 points over their last 6 games while they have given up just shy of 27 per game.
After 4 straight wins Carolina is moving in the opposite direction with their defense getting it together and their offense finally clicking. Carolina could possibly steal a wildcard spot from the Rams with a win here and a bit of luck the rest of the way.
I absoloutely love Carolina in this one both straight up and ATS. Of St. Louis' 6 losses, 5 of them were blowouts. All of their road losses have been blowouts of no less than 17 points.
People may argue that the Rams are in must win mode but they've been in that mode for a few weeks and they've looked like shit. They even look like shit when they win....like at home against the Niners.

Early Prediction: Carolina 27, St. Louis 13


Jets @ Pittsburgh

The Obvious:
Pittsburgh is a serious contender and they've won 10 in a row.
Jets have lost their last 12 of 14 SUas an underdog and have lost 8 straight as road dogs. They are also only 1-6-1 ATS during that 8 game road slide.

Yes the Steelers continue to win but have stumbled ATS in their last couple of games. Opponents have been able to pressure Big Ben lately.
Both of these teams feature an awesome smashmouth running game. Curtis Martin should see a ton of carries as should the dynamic Duo of Deuce and Jerome.
Both of these teams also feature fierce defenses.
I see this game setting up to be a low scoring and close game that could easily go down to the wire.
Pittsburgh deserves a lot of respect but I feel that 6 points is too many to give to the Jets in this situation.

Early Prediction: Pittsburgh 17, Jets 14

Jets +6


San Fran @ Arizona

The Obvious:
Nobody cares about this one. .
...or do they?

It's been 2 months since the pathetic 49ers have won. That win came against this week's foe....the Cardinals.
The 49ers are a joke....not that Arizona is much better. San Fran has scored a laughable 26 points in their last 3 games while they have given up 75. As for the Cards, they have scored a laughable 25 points while surrendering 74 in their last 3 games.
One factor that I can see playing a part in this one is the fact that the Cards are an improved team and they managed to stay in the playoff hunt for as long as they did. If they have any pride left, they'll surely want to get revenge on the Niners. After all, they would still be a contender in their weak division had they won that game....which brings me to my next point:
Both Seattle and St. Louis are in tough this week. They both play on the road, the Hawks are in Minny and the Rams are in Carolina to face the suddenly red hot Panthers. There is a good possibility that the Rams and Seahawks both lose. In that case, a revenge win over the Niners puts the Cards in the hunt with a 5-8 record, just 1 game back of both St. Lou and Seattle. Yes it's true. We could easily see a division winner with a sub .500 record.
So there really is motivation in the Cards locker room. Especially if Seattle loses the early game....
The Cards couldn't ask for a better situation. They're at home where they are 3-2, and up against the worst team in the NFL. I hope Dennis Green can get these guys fired up.
On the other hand, we have a San Fran team who's only win came against the Cards. Can they put the final nail in the Card's coffin? I don't think so.

Early Prediction: Arizona 31, Niners 20

Arizona -6.5



Oakland @ Atlanta

The Obvious:
Falcons love it at home having won 7 of their last 8 in the dome
Oakland has won 2 straight on the road as big dogs.
Atlanta coming off a shut out loss

I just can't see how the Falcons are 9-3. Their total defense is middle of the pack and their total offense ranks 21st in the league. Their record reflects that they are in the same class as Indy, Jets and San Diego.
I don't necessarily believe that to be true. Hell, look what the Bucs did to them last week.
Micheal Vick is the main reason that the Falcons lead the league in rushing. He is also a big reason why they are ranked 30th in passing, 11 tds and 10 interceptions.
Speaking of interceptions, Kerry Collins has tossed a few, 14 to be exact. The Raider QB, an alchoholic I believe, has found a bit of rhyrhem in the past few weeks. This has coincided with a bit of an improvement in Oakland's defence. What does that translate into?? Nothing IMO except that they have been able to keep a few games close. The Raider are still giving up too many points while failing to show any offensive might.
The big mismatch here is Michael Vick vs. the Oakland defense. His ability to scramble and rush will have Oakland's defense on their heels all night. Meanwhile the Falcon D looks set to contain the Raiders on the ground. That should lead to the Kerry Collins airshow....LOL

Early Prediction: Atlanta 27, Oakland 17

Atlanta -7.5



Miami @ Denver

The Obvious:
Miami sucks, will try to play spoiler.
Denver needs this one badly

Denver should be able to find success by running the ball against a pretty lame Miami D. Denver has dropped 2 straight and those losses have come at a bad time as they are now pretty much relegated to playing for the wildcard.
Miami's disasterous season continued last week but they can draw a few positives from their recent play. One such positive is that their offence is finally putting up a few points. They scored 32 points against a fiesty Bills defense last week and have scored at least 20 points in 4 of their last 6 after not being able to score 20 points in their first 6 games. Of course this new found improvement comes at the expense of their defence which has been a little flacid of late. This should bode well for Denver who has been able to put up at least 20 points in 8 straight homegames.
Miami's December road record has been notoriuosly bad going 1-7 in their last 8 while Denver has been money at home in the month of December winning 15 of their last 16 SU and 7 of their last 9 ATS.
I indeed like Denver to win this SU but of the 11 Miami losses, only 2 of them were by 11 or more (New England and the Jets)
The Broncos are less than stellar against the number when the spread is 10 or more. They are 2-5-1 in their last 8 home games as a fave of 10 or more.

Early Prediction: Denver 27, Miami, 17

Dolphins +11.5

Tampa Bay @ San Diego

The Obvious:
San Diego awesome at home.
Tampa is brutal on the road. If they aren't already out of the hunt, they will be if the lose this one.

San Diego looks to build on a 6 game winning streak and come closer to locking up the AFC West. Although Tampa's defence is very good, they are a mediocre offence at best. Brian Griese has been a pleasant suprise for the Bucs although he has been picked off several times in the last few games. San Diego has one of the best turnover ratios.
I can't see Tampa's 28th ranked rushing offense having too much success against San Diego's 2nd ranked rush defense but they may be able to exploit the passing game.
A key to San Diego's success will be to run Tomlinson often. In doing so they can keep the Tampa defence on the field and control the clock..
The Chargers are 9-1-2 against the spread this season
Tampa has been horrible SU and ATS on the road. They have lost 9 of their last 11on the road SU and ATS. The two exceptions were both wins in New Orleans.
This is one of the lower lines this week.

Early Prediction: San Diego 20, Tampa 13

San Diego -5


Philly @ Washington

The Obvious:
Philly has become an offensive juggernaut.
Washington can crush such powerhouses as the Giants

Donovan own the Skins. Philly has put up no less than 27 points in their last 5 meetings with the Skins.
Washington doesn't seem to be that tough to figure out. It's a very good defense with a very poor offense.
They did manage to score a season high 31 points against the Giants....but Philly's defense will be a different story. So will Philly's explosive offense. I've got this idea that McNabb and TO want to have a little more limelight and buzz around them to remind us that Payton and Harrison aren't the only story out there.

Early Prediction: Philly 30, Washington 10

Philly -9


Chicago @ Jacksonville

The Obvious:
The 6-6 Jags are in "must win" mode and need to get their offense rolling after 3 straight losses.
Chicago is in a great spoiler spot.

Chicago's defensive stats look pretty good. They have given up an average of 19.6 PPG. They have been hit up for 21+ points only twice this year and those games were against Minny and Indy. They will be facing Jags offence that had averaged 16.5 PPG. Jacksonville has eclipsed the 21 point mark 3 times. Those "score-fests" came against Detroit, Indy and KC.
Now I'm not gonna say that the Jags won't score but they will be hard pressed to come up with 21 points.
The Jags D has been solid overall and it will play tough on Sunday.
Chicago will also be hard pressed to score but I figure they should come away with at least 14.
The Jags need to win by 8 to cover???? It's been a year since the Jags beat anyone by 8 points and that was a 27-0 drubbing of the Texans.

Early Prediction: Jacksonville 17, Chicago 14

Chicago +8



Cincinatti @ New England

The Obvious:
At 11-1 SU and 9-1-2 ATS, the Pats are a big home favorite for good reason.
The Bengals have won 4 of their last 5 with the only loss coming against Pittsburgh.

I'm not going to think about this one too much. I'm sure the Bengals will score some points but they will give up twice as many. New England continues to crush the spread and have been the most consistant winning team out there. The Pats have held their opponents to single digits in their last 3 home games.
Since coming over from the Bengals, Corey Dillon has been given many opportunities that weren't available to him in Cincinatti.....like rushing against Cincinatti!!! He could have a huge game against the 31st ranked Cincinatti rush defense....especially if the Pats are in control.

Early Prediction: NE 31, Cincinatti 13

New England -11


Cleveland @ Buffalo

The Obvious:
It might be too late for the Bills but that hasn't stopped them from winning 5 of their last 6 with the lone loss coming at the hands of the Patriots. McGahee is a serious threat and the Bills have been putting up some big scores of late. That old trend of Buffalo "Unders" is pretty much out the window now as they have gone over the total in their last 5 straight home games.
Cleveland is once again in huge turmoil both on and off the field as they have dropped 6 straight and 8 of their last 10. They have also lost 9 of their last 10 road games.

Cleveland is weak against the run and mediocre at best against the pass. Good luck shutting down McGahee. Buffalo has been a relatively solid defensive team despite allowing those bum Dolphins 32 points. Look for the Bills to tighten that D up a bit. Buffalo @ -11 seems to be about right but because of Buffalo's recent breakthrough coupled with the fact that the Bills still have a sniff of a playoff chance....I'll bet Buffalo makes a statement at home.

Early Prediction: Buffalo 31, Cleveland 13

Buffalo -11


Detroit @ Green Bay

The Obvious:
Green Bay looked disgraceful and were destroyed by the Eagles.
Detroit is on life support but could still steal the division in theory.
Detroit will be in the cold on the road.
Green Bay will be in the cold at home.

For a few years it has seemed like Green Bay was unbeatable at home while the Lions couldn't buy a win on the road. How things change. Detroit is .500 in the road while the Pack is .500 at Lambeau.
The Loins have fresh film that shows the Eagles picking the Pack defense apart. I'm sure that they will be able to learn from it. We will see how the Pack can adjust.
Green Bay owns the Lions at Lambeau having won 13 straight games and going 10-1-2 ATS in that stretch.
Favre and the pack will bounce back with some emotion and rack up the points like they've been doing at home lately.

Early Prediction: Green Bay 38, Detroit 24

Green Bay -9.5


Indy @ Houston

The Obvious:
Indy is an offensive machine.
Indy is a defensive mess.

I like the fact that Payton and the Indy O is relentless. Manning is a shoe in to beat Marino's record and I doubt that the Colts will let up until this mark is reached. They have scored over 30 points in 8 of their last 10 games and have scored 40+ in their last 4 straight. Their Achilles heel is of course their porous defense.
But the Indy D has seemed pretty stable in their last few outings.
Even if Houston reaches its season high of 31 points it won't be enough to make up for the points they will inevitably give up. Indy's looking to keep up with the big boys.

Early Prediction: Indy 42, Houston 24

Indy -10

Seattle @ Minnesota

The Obvious:
Seattle loves moosedick and are handsdown the worst .500 team in pro sports. There is not a team out there right now that can't beat them. These guys can't have a lot of confidence.
Minny needs to put a couple wins together as not to let the division slip away.......like last year.
Both squads "control their own destiny"

I haven't seen a team so prone to the 4th quarter collapse as these Seahawks. sure they came back and made it interesting on Monday but once again snatch defeat from the hands of victory. Going back to last years playoffs, the Seahawks have not been any good at closing out games. This game will be about rising above the mediocre.
These two teams feature suspect defenses but Minny's D is a little more supect vs. the run.....enter Shaun Alexander who should be a busy guy. He should get 30+ runs.
This will be the 7th straight homegame in which Minny is a 6+ point fave. It's interesting to note that the Vikings have gone 3-0 ATS @ home this year when favored by 6, but have gone 0-3 ATS @ home when the line exceeds 6. Good news for Minny backers....Seattle has covered just 1 of their last 9 games.
Like many Seahawk games this season, I expect this one to go down to the wire. I'll wait to see if the line climbs to 7 or higher and if it does......bam!!! I'll take a shot with the Shithawks to cover.

Early Prediction: Minny 31, Seattle 27

Seattle +7

Giants @ Baltimore

The Obvious:
After a fast start the G-Men have folded and don't pose much of a threat.
Baltimore will be looking to rebound from a home loss to the Bengals in this important game.

The Giants have been aweful. They have dropped 5 straight and 6 of their last 7. They have virtually no offense to speak of and with some key injuries their defense is suffering. Despite losing to Cinci, the Ravens were able to put up more points in that one game than the Giants have totalled in their previous 3 games. The Raven offense isn't exactly a juggernaut but it is capable of scoring points. They have scored 20+ points in 8 of their 12 games and have hit 20 points in all of their homegames.
This is another "big chalk home fave" but that doesn't scare me. I think that Baltimore gets a very convincing victory at home. I'm loving the Eli Manning era.

Early Prediction: Baltimore 27, Giants 12

Baltimore -9.5