Baseball - April 13th

[Tinfish]

ytd (12-15) -$240

today i am playing a full card:

Under 9 -101 Pirates/Brewers
The basis for the play is that Pittsburgh struggling to hit LH pitching and Capuano has be on since Day 1 of Spring Training going from a rotation suspect to the #3 starter. Most of us arent Josh Fogg fans but Milwaukee isnt exactly tearing the cover of the ball in fact they dont seem to score unless it comes off a tater! Fogg had 3 solid starts vs this Brew Crew last year and I hoping his SD start carries over.

Under 8.5 -111 Marlins/Phillies
The numbers dictate that this is the play but I have little faith in either SP at the moment. Both guys made a handful of solid starts against there respective clubs in 04. Willis has the ability to neutralize Lofton,Abreu and Thome with his sweeping breaking ball and akward delivery.

Cardinals -155
Mulder has pitched a couple of nice games the Reds in the past and this Cincy team is in a major offensive funk at the moment. Not to mention predominantly LH! Ramon Ortiz probably is still a little behind due to his groin strain err pull in Spring Training! Really not going much further teh Cincy not hitting, 0-4 on the road and playing in StL vs Mulder.....enuff said IMO.

Under 8 -111 Dodgers/Giants
Yesterdays game was a fluke IMO and I as I mentioned at nite the ball travels much differently in DodgerLand! Tomko historically a bad road pitcher turned it around in 2004 and was much more effective away then at home.
2004 @Dodger Stadium 2.02 1-0 3 22.1 18 5 5 1 7 14 .214

Yankees +128
Sorry Red Sox nation but I think Schilling is even near ready but thats just my opinion. Wright pitched well vs Boston last year in an Braves uniform and I hoope that the 3rd and 4th innings vs Baltimore were just a blip on a perfect start for Wright!

Over 9.5 -111 RedSox/Yankees
When the play at Fenway I need serios reasons to play an Under otherwise tehre is just a good chance teher will be tons of runs. I think you have WRight coming in questionable after faltering vs Baltimore nd Schilling cant be ready after 1 Triple A start.

Orioles -117
Hard to go against hendrickson at home or maybe not wise is the better choice of words. Thing is the Baltimore lineup is beginning to click past 4 games and they are scary vs LHP starters when you run out Mora,Tejada,Sosa, and Javy Lopez. Baltimore ha sthe better pen as well as the better SP IMO.

Rangers ML -106 and -1.5 Runs -179
Yeah I know its Chan Ho Park but at least the guy has made adjustments learning a two seamer. All Paul Bryd has done is run his mouth saying there is no reason he shouldnt win 20 games this year on this team! Then he goes out and gets roughed up but the KC Royals!!!! Hello McFly!!! Again I just think Arlington is place he doesnt want to visit right now and Park needs to get them into the 7th inning.

Over 9.5 -108 Twins/Tigers
Johnson vs Lohse could have many guys running to the bat rack just check the career numbers vs the lineups! Anyway Johnson looked hood in his 1st start after an awful Spring it was also home against the Royals! Lohse was not sharp in teh Spring or his 1st start expect more of the same both teams actually sport solid pens. Hopefully they get there runs early.

A's -123
The Toronto Blue Jays the best team in baseball! They are hitting the cover off the ball right now but I still think they wont sweep the home team. Basic reasoning David Bush was 1-4 on the road last year and people will look at his excellent start vs Oaklnad thinking they are on to something! Think what the 4.73 ERA would be without 8 shutout innings! Bush is very young and overrated ta the moment....expectation s just way to high IMHO!

[BBAddict]

Do you decide what you think the odds should be and then check the posted odds to decide what games to bet on?

What is your logic for deciding what/when to bet? Obviously there's a ton you could do and you need some logic.

[Tinfish]

Originally posted by BBAddict
Do you decide what you think the odds should be and then check the posted odds to decide what games to bet on?

What is your logic for deciding what/when to bet? Obviously there's a ton you could do and you need some logic.

Yeah I look at a game, study it, handicap it and make my prediction on what the line should be and then compare it to the actual vegas line. If my numbers are moderately to signifigantly different than the actual numbers, I make it a play.

There are certain trends or systems that tons of baseball betters ALWAYS bet such as:

Always bet the Home underdog.
Always bet against a team for its 1st game back from a 8+ game road trip
Unders in Dodger games at Chavez Ravine.

etc.

I dont use a ton of system plays. More of a gut feel and standard number crunching. Early season betting is difficult when doing this because no one really knows who is good yet and who sucks.

For me the hardest thing is to lay off of a bet. You figure that every bet has a 50/50 chance of winning. You can see by my early season record that I am struggling. I dont bet a game if I dont think I have a good chance of winning it. The degenerate gambler thinks he can win most games.