Red-zone trend predicts Seahawks victory

[Tinfish]

Remember the final play of Super Bowl XXXIV?

You know, the one where Tennessee Titans wide receiver Kevin Dyson was tackled on the one-yard line and the Rams took the game 23-16?

Some people say the tackle was a lucky break. They say if the Titans only had another timeout they would’ve put together a better play. But if the Super Bowls that followed were any indication, that game-saving tackle by the Rams’ Mike Jones started a trend that has become a telltale sign of who will win the Lombardi Trophy.

St. Louis was top four in the league in red-zone defense that year and over the next five years, the team with the better stopping power inside the 20 has won the NFL championship. If this holds true, you’ll see the Seattle Seahawks and their No. 2 ranked red-zone unit being showered with confetti on Sunday. The Pittsburgh Steelers, 4-point favorites in the big game, rank No. 10 in red-zone defense.

But Covers Expert David Malinsky warns against putting too much stock in this trend. All the previous winners - the Patriots, Ravens and Buccaneers - had much more dominating defenses than their opponents. Malinsky says the same can’t be said of the Seahawks.

“If we could back the argument up with something to prove Seattle had a stronger defense than I might say we have something,” says Malinsky. “But we can’t find anything else to tell us the Seahawks had a better defense than the Steelers.”

Looking at the numbers he appears to be right. The Steelers were third and the Seahawks fourth in points allowed and Seattle actually gave up 20 yards more per game than Pittsburgh.

Also casting doubt on the trend is the Seahawks` schedule that ranked last in the league in level of difficulty. Meanwhile, the Steelers played a schedule that included games against Indianapolis, San Diego, New England and Cincinnati.

“It would be great if everyone played the same schedule but unfortunately they don’t,” says Malinsky. “I could be proven wrong but until the Seahawks show they can perform against a quality opponent this statistic doesn’t sway me either way.”