NFL Week 8

[Tinfish]

YTD 27-17-1

Philadelphia Eagles -7 Jacksonville Jaguars

Jags lost all 3 road games (SU and ATS) giving up an average of 28 pts on the road. Philly is scoring an average of 28.6/game and 31 pts/game at home. Philly lost 2 in a row and will look to turn it around against a team that struggles on the road and will most likely be without their starting QB Leftwich.

Kansas City Chiefs/Seattle Seahawks Over 38.5

Line is moving down from the opening line of 40. Most of the movement is due to the fact that a backup QB Wallace and backup RB Morris will be starting for the Hawks. After playing well defensively in their first 2 games, the Hawks have given up 28+ points in each of their last 4 games. They were held to 13 pts or less against 3 or the top defenses with Chicago, Denver, and Minnesota but have scored at least 21+ in their other games against lesser defenses. The Chiefs have given up 20+ in their last 3 games and have scored 23+ in 3 of their last 4 games. Despite the backups playing, I like the odds of either team having a good chance of scoring most of the over themselves. .

San Diego Chargers/St Louis Rams Over 45

9 of the last 10 meetings have gone over the total. The Rams have been scoring 23+ in their last 3 games. They've given up 20+ in 4 of their 6 games and the 2 games allowed less was against lesser offenses in Denver and Arizona. The Chargers defense has been very good for most of the season until last week's game against KC where they've given up 232 yds passing and 2 tds and 134 yds rushing with 2 tds. The loss of LB Phillips will hurt them and I would've liked this play a lot more if Merriman was out. I just think the Rams has too many seasoned weapons and the Chargers defense will bend like last week. The Chargers was held to 13 pts against a very good Ravens defense, but other than that game, they've scored 23+ in
all the other games. The Rams defense is nothing to write home about.

NY Jets/Cleveland Browns Over 38

All 7 Jets games this season has gone over the total. They are a scrappy group and are revitalized with the solid play of rookie Leon Washington who is like a Westbrook type that can catch as well as run. The Browns rank 4th from last in rushing yards allowed and the Jets lead the league in rushing attempts per game. Leon will have another great game similar to his 100+ yds and 2 TD performance last week against Detroit. The Jets have scored 20+ pts in 5 of their 7 games this season. The Browns don't score many points but they have a new O-coordinater after letting their last one go last week. The Jets are a poor defense against the run (5th from last) and I see Droughns having a field day as well as Washington. With both teams having success running the ball, this will help both Pennington and Frye to be more efficient as the pressure will be taken off from them.

Denver Broncos -3 Indianapolis Colts
Cleveland Browns -2 NY Jets

No rhyme or reason for the plays above other than (1) why the heck is an undefeated team getting 3 points against a team that can't score for shit (2) why the heck is a 1-5 team giving 2 points that can't score for shit? Smells fishy. I'll lay the points with both home teams having no business being favored in their respective matchups.