NFL Week 9

[Tinfish]

30-21-1 YTD

Tampa Bay Bucaneers +1 vs. New Orleans Saints

Saints should be favored by at least 3. Bucs beat 2 good quality opponents in their last 2 home games in Philly and Cinci, while the Saints have only beaten the likes of Cleveland and GB on the road. Line is funny and I think it's telling us something.

Buffalo Bills -3 vs. Green Bay Packers

Another funny line as you would think this game would be a pickem or the Pack giving a little with the way they're playing. Home team has won 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two. Statistically with yardage, Bills defense much better at home while Pack is worse on the road. Woodson out for the Pack which should allow Evans to have a good day. In fact, just to let you know, a little birdie told me Evans would have a good day today so start him in your FF leagues.

San Francisco 49ers +5 vs. Minnesota Vikings

Line opened up at 6 and now creeping towards 4.5. Funny movement. Both teams coming off getting blown out in their respective last games. Opening line shows that early action looking for the Vikes to rebound. No way Vikes should be a 5 pt fave to anyone on the road. Look at the red hot Falcons giving about 5 to a bad Detroit team and the books are rating the Vikes in the same way? No way man. 49ers are capable offensively to put up points but their defense just plain sucks. The Vikes are not capable offensively and it's their defense is why they are where they are today. This leads to closer 1 possession type of games as evident with their wins this season with the exception of the Seattle blowout. Vikes may win, but not by 5.

Cincinatti Bengals +3 vs. Baltimore Ravens

Despite scoring 21 and 35 in their last 2 games, the Ravens offense isn't really all that good and if they do win, I don't see them winning more than 3 points. Cincinatti's offense is capable of scoring a lot of points and in a hurry even though they haven't really shown it this season. In Baltimore last 2 games, they've shown that their defense can be had through the air (an average of 276.7 yds/game) and that is Cinci's strength now with a healthy trio of receivers in Jackson, Housh, and Henry. I like Cinci to either win or lose by a field goal at most in a tight and close game.

Kansas City Chiefs +3 vs. St Loius Rams
& St Louis Rams/Kansas City Chiefs Over 48

Both teams have been scoring a ton of points but both teams also have been giving up a ton of points. I think this will definitely be a barn burner. KC will easily pass and run on the Rams and the Rams will have no problem airing it out against KC. KC has won 7 S/U and ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Rams. I like KC with the points because if it's close in the 4th quarter, if they have the lead they have one of the best RBs in LJ to milk the clock whereas I don't feel confident that the Rams could do the same with Jackson if they had the lead.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 vs. Denver Broncos

A 2-5 team giving pts to a 5-2 team? Don't make sense, especially since this 2-5 team is coming off a loss to the RAIDERS! Something tells me that the Steelers may have learned something against the Broncos defense in their last game against the Colts. Stastically with yardage, the Steelers defense at home is better than the Broncos defense on the road. The Steelers have scored 20 or more points at home in 3 games this season. Other than their last game, the Broncos haven't scored more than 17 points all season. Either and both of the Denver's Bells will be shutdown by the stout Steelers run defense and Denver's hope of winning this game will once again rely on the likes of Plummer. I like the Steelers to have a good bounce back game.

New England Patriots -3 Indianapolis Colts

Last year in the Superbowl with Pittsburgh playing Seattle, Tom Brady was invited as a guest commentator in one of the TV media outlets. And one of the very first comments he made in his first appearance as a commentator was "Wow, so this is how it feels like to be Peyton Manning during the Super Bowl".