College Hoopla: Jan 16th

[Tinfish]

Connecticut at Pittsburgh
Pick: Panthers -6 1/2

Pittsburgh has shown its opponents no mercy, especially at their home court. They are 11-0 straight up and 5-2 against the spread at home this season. The only games they have failed to cover are a 73-56 win over Duquesne as a 27 ½-point favorite and a 74-69 win over Georgetown as a 5 ½-point favorite.

Now they are catching the Huskies at a bad time. Connecticut is very young and inexperienced this season, returning no starters from last year’s Elite Eight team and featuring no seniors among its regular rotation players.

A telling point in the Huskies’ season came in Saturday’s 68-59 win over St. John’s as a 6 ½-point favorite. Freshman forward Stanley Robinson got his first career start and recorded career highs with 13 points and 12 rebounds. Robinson is a talented player, but his placement in the starting lineup indicates the mindset UConn is taking the rest of the season. They will certainly be a tournament team, but are far from the team that ended the season ranked No. 2 in the country a year ago.

Connecticut is officially in rebuilding mode while Pitt is fielding as strong a team as it has in years and will want to make a statement to the rest of the Big East.

George Mason at William & Mary
Pick: Tribe +6 1/2

Fading the Patriots was standard fare up until the last four games. George Mason has now covered four straight and has won its last three games by an average of 24 points.

Now the Patriots are up against the last team to beat them. William & Mary beat George Mason in Fairfax on Jan. 3 in a 67-63 final as a 14-point underdog. They will undoubtedly be motivated to try to pull off the upset again against the conference’s biggest name.

George Mason continues to play the entire season with a giant target on its chest. Their public perception led them to be overvalued early on with a 2-5 record against the spread in their first seven betable games. Their recent turnaround only revives that perception. The Patriots aren’t going to get any favors from oddsmakers in this game. It’s one thing to beat up on an opponent when you are favored by double-digits. It’s another to do it against a motivated team like the Tribe.

Maryland at Virginia
Pick: Cavaliers -1 1/2

Just a really bad spot for the Terrapins – they ended the nation’s longest winning streak on Saturday with a 92-87 win over Clemson as a 3 ½-point favorite. Now Maryland goes to Virginia to play a Cavaliers team that is just 1-2 in-conference before a game against newfound giant-killers Virginia Tech on Sunday.

Virginia Tech’s recent outright wins over both Duke and North Carolina has them on the national radar, and certainly on the minds of Maryland. This is a classic sandwich scenario for the Terrapins. They are coming off a big win last weekend and have to find a way to combat a rising power on the road next weekend. A trip to Charlottesville to play a middle-of-the-road Cavaliers team won’t exactly bring their best effort.

Air Force at Utah
Pick: Utes +7

Air Force’s average margin of victory is almost 20 points per game (18.5), but it was actually 22.2 points before the Falcons’ last four games. Air Force finally seems to be slowing down after starting the season 13-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread. They have still won their last four games, but have failed to cover in all four.

At 17-1, the Falcons have the best winning percentage in the nation. Winning outright means that most people won’t notice that Air Force isn’t covering its spreads. That could be bad news with Air Force traveling to face a very under-the-radar Utah team. The Utes are the only team in the Mountain West Conference without a winning record (5-12 straight up), but they are 9-6 against the spread.