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Carolina Panthers +9 vs Eagles
The Carolina Panthers are not the team they were last season but John Fox still knows how to coach this type of game. Most of you think things could not get any worse for the Panthers, who have now lost RB Deshaun Foster until late November. I'm still confident in Stephen Davis' return this week and even if he is out, I think the key to beating the Eagles is through the air game. Jake Delhomme is not exactly off to his best start (6 TD's and 5 INT's) but I see him having a good game. The Eagles defense allows opposing QB's to complete 62.0% of their passes and allow 236.5 passing yards per game. I have confidence in the Panthers O-Line protecting Delhomme from the Eagles and their 4.5 sacks per game. Whoever is in at running back for Carolina should enjoy the Eagles allowing 4.9 yards per carry. Philly wins this game but only by a touchdown. On a side note, the Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five versus an opponent off a SU & ATS win. They are also 11-2 ATS as non-division underdogs with John Fox. He knows how to get these guys ready and I love what they did against Denver last week.
The Philadelphia Eagles are 4-0 SU & ATS this season and look to be early Super Bowl favourites. I have been nothing but impressed with Donovan McNabb and the entire Philly offense. However, this is the one game I see the slacking off a little as they run into a solid Panthers secondary. Anyone knows that in order to beat Carolina, you run all over them with all you have. They allow 159.0 rushing yards per game but the Eagles average only 111.3. I just don't see Andy Reid calling for 20+ running plays, which will be the Eagles downfall this week. In the air, the Eagles average 276.0 passing yards per game, while the Panthers allow only 167.8. Opposing QB's are completing only 57.3% of their passes against Carolina and as we all saw last weekend, Jake Plummer had his fair share of problems. The Eagles allow too many yards per play (5.5) for me to play them here. They are 2-5 ATS in their last six at home versus non-division NFC opponents.
Cleveland Browns -2.5 vs. Cincinatti
The Cincinnati Bengals are as bad a team as I have seen in a long time. They are 0-4 ATS with their only win coming against the lowly Dolphins. Carson Palmer is making a lot of mistakes but I think he will have a decent day against this Browns defense that allows 235.6 passing yards per game. However, those stats reflect earlier games when the Cleveland defense was ailing. Several players are back and I expect better. On the ground, Rudi Johnson has averaged 113 yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry. The Browns defense is good against the run and allows only 3.7 yards per carry. Palmer is averaging only 5.2 yards per pass attempt and until I see him have a good game, I think opposing defense will keep forcing him into doing stupid things. The Cleveland defense allows only 32.8% of 3rd downs to be converted. The Bengals are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 versus division opponents after allowing 21+ points in back-to-back games. They are also 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a division underdog of 6 or less points and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 as road underdogs in all games.
The Cleveland Browns are 2-3 on the year and not as bad as many people would think. Sure their only wins came against Baltimore and Washington at home, but what can you do when you play on the road with an injury depleted roster? I call for William Green to have one heck of a day. He is averaging 4.1 yards per carry and combined with Lee Suggs, is up against a Cincinnati defense that allows 165.8 rushing yards per game (5.2 yards per carry). This should take a lot of pressure off Jeff Garcia who will need all the help he can get against a defense that allows only 178.5 passing yards per game. However, the Bengals defense does allow 6.6 yards per pass attempt and opposing QB's are completing 63.3% of their passes (even after playing the Dolphins). I give the Browns the slight edge in this game and think their defense wins it for them. On a side note, the Browns are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 home games coming off a loss versus an opponent off an ATS loss. They are also 4-1 ATS versus opponents off back-to-back ATS losses. Did I mention Butch Davis was 8-3 ATS off a loss versus an opponent also coming off a loss. Browns to the bank!
Kansas City Chiefs -2 vs. Jacksonville
The Chiefs are coming off a bye week and something tells me Vermeil has been working on several things to get this team back in playoff shape. Trent Green has not performed as well as we know he can and I see him having quite the week against a Jaguars defense that allows 6.5 yards per pass attempt. They also allow opposing QB's to complete an average of 63.3% of their passes. Green will have plenty of time to work with as the Jags average only 1.0 sacks per game. On the ground, I see Priest Holmes having the Jags defense worried for most of the day, resulting in a lot of pass opportunities and a few trick plays here and there. The Jaguars allow 122.6 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry. I usually caution teams allowing 3.5+ yards per carry to lookout for the PRIEST! Another very important aspect of this one is that the Chiefs convert 42.6% of 3rd downs, while the Jaguars defense allows a whopping 45.6% of 3rd downs to be converted. With Dante Hall giving the Chiefs good field position on almost all returns, look for KC to run away with this one. The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven October games as Road Favourites and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 October road games versus an opponent coming off a loss. Dick Vermeil is 12-2 ATS in his last 14 as a Road Favourite versus an opponent off a double-digit loss and 9-3 ATS in his last 12 as a conference Road Favourite. Are you kidding me? With a week off to work with, Vermeil is cash money!
The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off their 2nd straight loss and have a lot of people wondering if they are for real. As much as you think Fred Taylor should demolish this KC run defense (allow 4.5 yards per carry), keep in mind that the Jaguars average only 92.6 yards rushing per game. The Chiefs defense averages 2.5 sacks per game as well as 1.3 interceptions. I know Byron Leftwich has been playing some good football but I have a feeling we see a revamped KC defense who will most likely be ready for anything Jacksonville throws at them. Vermeil has mentioned that this is a huge huge game. The Jags convert only 33.3% of 3rd downs, while the KC defense allows only 34.1% of 3rd downs to be converted. This will be crucial as I see a lot of 3rd and 5's for the Jaguars. This is a brutal situation for this Jags team. They are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven off a double-digit loss. They are also 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 as underdogs in October. Del Rio is 0-5 ATS lifetime off a loss of 10 or more points and 1-4 ATS in his last five versus opponents off a SU & ATS win.
New England Patriots -4 vs. Seattle
The Seattle Seahawks won't have much time to recover from that devastating loss to St. Louis last Sunday. Matt Hasselbeck has been simply awesome and is not the reason they lost that game. He leads an offense that averages 340.5 total yards per game. In the air, they average 208.3 passing yards but only 6.8 yards per pass attempt. The Pats defense allows only 6.0 yards per pass attempt and opposing QB's complete only 51.9% of their passes against them. The Pats average 4.0 sacks per game and I expect to see Hasselbeck under pressure all day. This should open up the run game for Shaun Alexander who is averaging 4.4 yards per carry. The Patriots defense allows 4.2 yards per carry but not many teams realize that you have to run against them. The Seahawks convert only 25.9% of their 3rd downs, while New England allows opposing teams to complete only 35.3% of 3rd downs. Seattle is 1-8 ATS in the last nine seasons when coming off their first loss of the year. They are 0-7 ATS in their last seven versus the AFC East . They are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 October games after scoring 24 or more points and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 October games as Road Underdogs.
The New England Patriots go for win number 20 and try to keep their unbeaten streak alive. They are 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in what looks to be another classic Pats team. Seattle's defense is somewhat overrated if you ask me and although they allow only 84.5 rushing yards per game, they do allow 4.0 yards per carry. Not many teams have tried the running game with the Seahawks but I think Belichick will have some nice trickery plays up his sleeve. Tom Brady has been near perfect this season and although I see a bit of a letdown in this game, I really think he can find a way to shred a Seattle defense that allows only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Brady rarely gets sacked and will have enough time for some 1st down completions. The Patriots convert 44.9% of 3rd down chances and I like that stat a lot in a tight game like this. New England is 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing 17 or less points in a game. They are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games prior to playing the Jets and 5-1 ATS in October when coming off an ATS win.
The Carolina Panthers are not the team they were last season but John Fox still knows how to coach this type of game. Most of you think things could not get any worse for the Panthers, who have now lost RB Deshaun Foster until late November. I'm still confident in Stephen Davis' return this week and even if he is out, I think the key to beating the Eagles is through the air game. Jake Delhomme is not exactly off to his best start (6 TD's and 5 INT's) but I see him having a good game. The Eagles defense allows opposing QB's to complete 62.0% of their passes and allow 236.5 passing yards per game. I have confidence in the Panthers O-Line protecting Delhomme from the Eagles and their 4.5 sacks per game. Whoever is in at running back for Carolina should enjoy the Eagles allowing 4.9 yards per carry. Philly wins this game but only by a touchdown. On a side note, the Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five versus an opponent off a SU & ATS win. They are also 11-2 ATS as non-division underdogs with John Fox. He knows how to get these guys ready and I love what they did against Denver last week.
The Philadelphia Eagles are 4-0 SU & ATS this season and look to be early Super Bowl favourites. I have been nothing but impressed with Donovan McNabb and the entire Philly offense. However, this is the one game I see the slacking off a little as they run into a solid Panthers secondary. Anyone knows that in order to beat Carolina, you run all over them with all you have. They allow 159.0 rushing yards per game but the Eagles average only 111.3. I just don't see Andy Reid calling for 20+ running plays, which will be the Eagles downfall this week. In the air, the Eagles average 276.0 passing yards per game, while the Panthers allow only 167.8. Opposing QB's are completing only 57.3% of their passes against Carolina and as we all saw last weekend, Jake Plummer had his fair share of problems. The Eagles allow too many yards per play (5.5) for me to play them here. They are 2-5 ATS in their last six at home versus non-division NFC opponents.
Cleveland Browns -2.5 vs. Cincinatti
The Cincinnati Bengals are as bad a team as I have seen in a long time. They are 0-4 ATS with their only win coming against the lowly Dolphins. Carson Palmer is making a lot of mistakes but I think he will have a decent day against this Browns defense that allows 235.6 passing yards per game. However, those stats reflect earlier games when the Cleveland defense was ailing. Several players are back and I expect better. On the ground, Rudi Johnson has averaged 113 yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry. The Browns defense is good against the run and allows only 3.7 yards per carry. Palmer is averaging only 5.2 yards per pass attempt and until I see him have a good game, I think opposing defense will keep forcing him into doing stupid things. The Cleveland defense allows only 32.8% of 3rd downs to be converted. The Bengals are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 versus division opponents after allowing 21+ points in back-to-back games. They are also 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a division underdog of 6 or less points and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 as road underdogs in all games.
The Cleveland Browns are 2-3 on the year and not as bad as many people would think. Sure their only wins came against Baltimore and Washington at home, but what can you do when you play on the road with an injury depleted roster? I call for William Green to have one heck of a day. He is averaging 4.1 yards per carry and combined with Lee Suggs, is up against a Cincinnati defense that allows 165.8 rushing yards per game (5.2 yards per carry). This should take a lot of pressure off Jeff Garcia who will need all the help he can get against a defense that allows only 178.5 passing yards per game. However, the Bengals defense does allow 6.6 yards per pass attempt and opposing QB's are completing 63.3% of their passes (even after playing the Dolphins). I give the Browns the slight edge in this game and think their defense wins it for them. On a side note, the Browns are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 home games coming off a loss versus an opponent off an ATS loss. They are also 4-1 ATS versus opponents off back-to-back ATS losses. Did I mention Butch Davis was 8-3 ATS off a loss versus an opponent also coming off a loss. Browns to the bank!
Kansas City Chiefs -2 vs. Jacksonville
The Chiefs are coming off a bye week and something tells me Vermeil has been working on several things to get this team back in playoff shape. Trent Green has not performed as well as we know he can and I see him having quite the week against a Jaguars defense that allows 6.5 yards per pass attempt. They also allow opposing QB's to complete an average of 63.3% of their passes. Green will have plenty of time to work with as the Jags average only 1.0 sacks per game. On the ground, I see Priest Holmes having the Jags defense worried for most of the day, resulting in a lot of pass opportunities and a few trick plays here and there. The Jaguars allow 122.6 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry. I usually caution teams allowing 3.5+ yards per carry to lookout for the PRIEST! Another very important aspect of this one is that the Chiefs convert 42.6% of 3rd downs, while the Jaguars defense allows a whopping 45.6% of 3rd downs to be converted. With Dante Hall giving the Chiefs good field position on almost all returns, look for KC to run away with this one. The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven October games as Road Favourites and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 October road games versus an opponent coming off a loss. Dick Vermeil is 12-2 ATS in his last 14 as a Road Favourite versus an opponent off a double-digit loss and 9-3 ATS in his last 12 as a conference Road Favourite. Are you kidding me? With a week off to work with, Vermeil is cash money!
The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off their 2nd straight loss and have a lot of people wondering if they are for real. As much as you think Fred Taylor should demolish this KC run defense (allow 4.5 yards per carry), keep in mind that the Jaguars average only 92.6 yards rushing per game. The Chiefs defense averages 2.5 sacks per game as well as 1.3 interceptions. I know Byron Leftwich has been playing some good football but I have a feeling we see a revamped KC defense who will most likely be ready for anything Jacksonville throws at them. Vermeil has mentioned that this is a huge huge game. The Jags convert only 33.3% of 3rd downs, while the KC defense allows only 34.1% of 3rd downs to be converted. This will be crucial as I see a lot of 3rd and 5's for the Jaguars. This is a brutal situation for this Jags team. They are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven off a double-digit loss. They are also 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 as underdogs in October. Del Rio is 0-5 ATS lifetime off a loss of 10 or more points and 1-4 ATS in his last five versus opponents off a SU & ATS win.
New England Patriots -4 vs. Seattle
The Seattle Seahawks won't have much time to recover from that devastating loss to St. Louis last Sunday. Matt Hasselbeck has been simply awesome and is not the reason they lost that game. He leads an offense that averages 340.5 total yards per game. In the air, they average 208.3 passing yards but only 6.8 yards per pass attempt. The Pats defense allows only 6.0 yards per pass attempt and opposing QB's complete only 51.9% of their passes against them. The Pats average 4.0 sacks per game and I expect to see Hasselbeck under pressure all day. This should open up the run game for Shaun Alexander who is averaging 4.4 yards per carry. The Patriots defense allows 4.2 yards per carry but not many teams realize that you have to run against them. The Seahawks convert only 25.9% of their 3rd downs, while New England allows opposing teams to complete only 35.3% of 3rd downs. Seattle is 1-8 ATS in the last nine seasons when coming off their first loss of the year. They are 0-7 ATS in their last seven versus the AFC East . They are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 October games after scoring 24 or more points and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 October games as Road Underdogs.
The New England Patriots go for win number 20 and try to keep their unbeaten streak alive. They are 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in what looks to be another classic Pats team. Seattle's defense is somewhat overrated if you ask me and although they allow only 84.5 rushing yards per game, they do allow 4.0 yards per carry. Not many teams have tried the running game with the Seahawks but I think Belichick will have some nice trickery plays up his sleeve. Tom Brady has been near perfect this season and although I see a bit of a letdown in this game, I really think he can find a way to shred a Seattle defense that allows only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Brady rarely gets sacked and will have enough time for some 1st down completions. The Patriots convert 44.9% of 3rd down chances and I like that stat a lot in a tight game like this. New England is 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing 17 or less points in a game. They are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games prior to playing the Jets and 5-1 ATS in October when coming off an ATS win.