Tweet
YTD (39-37) -$11
today:
Braves -124
The Braves still areent tearing the cover off the ball but they have ripped Zach Day in his short career 1-5 10.93ERA in 6starts and 9 apps. Including his last start(4/11) when he allowed 7runs and 9 hits in 4.1 Innings. Last year Atlanta won 15 of 19 from the Nationals but did drop 2 of 3 in Atlanta earlier this year which was the start of there hot streak. Ramirez benefits from being a LH pitcher as guys like Wilkerson, Johnson, Sledge or Church, Schneider are all LH sticks. Only Wilkerson and Vidro have enough atbats off Ramirez to base anything off and they are a combined 5 of 25 off him. The key will be how he handles Castilla and Guillen IMO. This year they have faced a LHP in 5 games winning 3 and losing 2 but never hitting well vs any of them. Willis has beat them twice and Hampton in Atlanta. They managed to beat Wolf in Philly but his line 6innings 8hits and 3runs wasnt that bad it was Loaiza start against him that helped the winning cause. While recently the faced Brad Halsey who pitched a good game before the PEN came in a blew it openlosing 7-3. There avergae is decent basically cause Wilkerson started off on a tear vs LHP(.500 clip). With Day on the hill even though he might be looking for payback with 9 days on the bench and a start skipped I cant expect a good outing from him. Nationals bats have been silent past 2 days and this is not a good matchup even with Ramirez still not in top form IMO. Braves 4-1 in Game 1's and Washington is the flip at 1-4. In the games started vs LHP they have scored 7runs (Halsey) , 5runs(Wolf), 4runs(WIllis), 2runs (Hampton), and shutout vs Willis.
Phillies -175
Bounce back after last nites brutal loss. Lidle has been solid in his 2 starts and Colorado just hasnt hit on the road especially RHP. Wright was shelled last time out and I would not back him on the road{ever}. Though he did win @ Philly last August! Colorado is 0-6 on the road and has dropped the series opener 4 straight times this year. Yesterday they looked good but will always hit LHP pitching better.
Under 7.5 NYMets/Marlins -111
We all know that Florida is tough place to come by runs. Beckett has been pretty filthy vs NY past few starts and see no reason why he doesnt build off his last one. Beckett has not allowed a run at home yet this year! Heilman went back to his three quarters delivery that he used in College at ND right before the end of Spring Training. His 1st start was below average but he is coming off a 1 hit shutout of Florida at Shea last time out when opposed Beckett. Mets bats have been fairly quite before last nite and I think like my Yanks they will sputter at the plate. All three at Shea went Under(4,7,7 total runs). In 9 games at HOME Fla has allowed 4runs twice , 3runs once, 2runs twice and has 4 SHUTOUTS! Thats 15 runs in 9 games!!!O/U is 3-5-1 but all 3 overs were Florida beatings 9-0 twice and 8-2 the other time.
Marlins -193
Beckett and the Marlins are just to tough at IMO for a pitcher like Heilman to beat twice in a week. Again no runs at home in 15 innings and the team overall just 15 in 9 games. Beckett is just filthy at home.
Under 9-111 Pirates/Reds
Last season 7 of 9 games at cincy went UNDER when they meet. Now both teams are struggling with the bat especially Pittsburgh lately. Wilson has a 3.26ERA against Pitt in 47 innings and Perez a 2.77ERA in 52 innings. Last year Perez made 5 starts vs Cincy 3 @ Cincy all which went under. His Pirates won all 5 and in three of those starts he didnt allow a run , th e other two he allowed 3runs. Wilson faced them 4 times and got better each time out. He went from 4runs in 5 INN, to 4runs in 6Inn, to 1run in 7 INN to 1run in 9Inn. Perez has 8 career starts and K'd 10+ in 5 and nine in another but his last 4 starts last year he fanned 10+ three times and the last time out he had 9. Now the scary part is this year both Wilson and Perez have struggled to find there groove. Pitt just 39runs in 14games and Cincy 55 in 13 games.
Under 7.5 Astros/Brewers -117
If it wasnt for the FLU situation I would be on this more but dont read to much into this bullshit but Yost. Oswalt and Sheets both have great career numbers vs there respective opponents. Both guys are 8-4 but Sheets has a 3.16 ERA compred to 3.55. The one guy who hits Oswalt is Jenkins and he is in a major funk. The Stros struggle vs Sheets cause tehy are always predominantly RH lineup. Both teams struggling at the plate Milw @ .199 and Houston @ .252 Last 10 games. Sheets has had trouble getting run support in his starts and that trend continued in 05. Last time they matched up in Houston Oswalts Stros won 2-1my only concern is that this line has been adjusted about a run lower then last year but probably due to the fact these teams just dont hit that well. Oswalt allowed just 1run in 17innings at home last year vs Milwaukee while Sheets allowed just 4 runs in 13 innings.
Padres-106
This is sort of a GUT feel play. IMO last nite LA blew there load and that was the end to there winning streak ! Lowe has always struggled on teh road and you can see the incredible difference in his Home/AWAY splits even this year. Lowe just shutout SD at home last week and it wont be that easy again for him. Willimas was awful in Colorado but has bounced back with 2 decent starts but was the loser in the 4-0 games vs Lowe. SD back on track after the sweep with 2 wins vs SF. Williams has verygood numbers vs LA in his career(sub 3 ERA)and I think he pitches better this time around along the lines of 7innings and 2 or 3 runs.
Giants -140
Diamondbacks have just 1 win on the road and LHP will be there nemesis with only Glaus swinging a powerful RH bat but he is slumping .190 past 7 days. That lone win was thanks to the Colorado pen as they blew a 3-1 lead. Hitting .207 for the season vs LHP and jsut .171 away vs LHP. Lowry is tough at home in his young career and has impressed by leading SF to 2 wins over Colorado cause the Rockies actually hit LHP well. Vazquez doesnt look any better then he did last year in NY and why should I feel that will change. Last year Zona was 1-9 at Pac Bell.
Yankees -124
Yes I am glutton for punishment. Reality is the Yankees pound LHP and I believe it was 36-11 last season vs LH starters and 2-1 this year(though Chen has shut them down). Cant pass on those odds. Pavano has pitched fairly well in 2 of his 3 starts and really the second start was INCOMPLETE thanks to the liner . It didnt look good at the time but who knows what would have happened. Anyway Lilly doesnt have numbers vs his former team a 1-3 record and 4.50ERA and Lilly still isnt strong enough to go past 5 or 6innings IMO thanks to Shoulder tenditis in the Spring. Lilly lost his 1st 5 starts vs NY before he won in Sept 5-4 @ NY.
Under 10-110 NYY/Tor
Neither teams scares me with the bat right now and both SP are solid.
Royals +1.5Runs +144
Strange play but I dont like the way Minny is swinging the bats right now. Lima is alot like ElDuque last nite and he buckled down after getting spanked for 5 first inning runs last time out vs DET. Santana has been good but not great and you can just look at his pitch counts and innings pitched. So since I feel Johan is not
today:
Braves -124
The Braves still areent tearing the cover off the ball but they have ripped Zach Day in his short career 1-5 10.93ERA in 6starts and 9 apps. Including his last start(4/11) when he allowed 7runs and 9 hits in 4.1 Innings. Last year Atlanta won 15 of 19 from the Nationals but did drop 2 of 3 in Atlanta earlier this year which was the start of there hot streak. Ramirez benefits from being a LH pitcher as guys like Wilkerson, Johnson, Sledge or Church, Schneider are all LH sticks. Only Wilkerson and Vidro have enough atbats off Ramirez to base anything off and they are a combined 5 of 25 off him. The key will be how he handles Castilla and Guillen IMO. This year they have faced a LHP in 5 games winning 3 and losing 2 but never hitting well vs any of them. Willis has beat them twice and Hampton in Atlanta. They managed to beat Wolf in Philly but his line 6innings 8hits and 3runs wasnt that bad it was Loaiza start against him that helped the winning cause. While recently the faced Brad Halsey who pitched a good game before the PEN came in a blew it openlosing 7-3. There avergae is decent basically cause Wilkerson started off on a tear vs LHP(.500 clip). With Day on the hill even though he might be looking for payback with 9 days on the bench and a start skipped I cant expect a good outing from him. Nationals bats have been silent past 2 days and this is not a good matchup even with Ramirez still not in top form IMO. Braves 4-1 in Game 1's and Washington is the flip at 1-4. In the games started vs LHP they have scored 7runs (Halsey) , 5runs(Wolf), 4runs(WIllis), 2runs (Hampton), and shutout vs Willis.
Phillies -175
Bounce back after last nites brutal loss. Lidle has been solid in his 2 starts and Colorado just hasnt hit on the road especially RHP. Wright was shelled last time out and I would not back him on the road{ever}. Though he did win @ Philly last August! Colorado is 0-6 on the road and has dropped the series opener 4 straight times this year. Yesterday they looked good but will always hit LHP pitching better.
Under 7.5 NYMets/Marlins -111
We all know that Florida is tough place to come by runs. Beckett has been pretty filthy vs NY past few starts and see no reason why he doesnt build off his last one. Beckett has not allowed a run at home yet this year! Heilman went back to his three quarters delivery that he used in College at ND right before the end of Spring Training. His 1st start was below average but he is coming off a 1 hit shutout of Florida at Shea last time out when opposed Beckett. Mets bats have been fairly quite before last nite and I think like my Yanks they will sputter at the plate. All three at Shea went Under(4,7,7 total runs). In 9 games at HOME Fla has allowed 4runs twice , 3runs once, 2runs twice and has 4 SHUTOUTS! Thats 15 runs in 9 games!!!O/U is 3-5-1 but all 3 overs were Florida beatings 9-0 twice and 8-2 the other time.
Marlins -193
Beckett and the Marlins are just to tough at IMO for a pitcher like Heilman to beat twice in a week. Again no runs at home in 15 innings and the team overall just 15 in 9 games. Beckett is just filthy at home.
Under 9-111 Pirates/Reds
Last season 7 of 9 games at cincy went UNDER when they meet. Now both teams are struggling with the bat especially Pittsburgh lately. Wilson has a 3.26ERA against Pitt in 47 innings and Perez a 2.77ERA in 52 innings. Last year Perez made 5 starts vs Cincy 3 @ Cincy all which went under. His Pirates won all 5 and in three of those starts he didnt allow a run , th e other two he allowed 3runs. Wilson faced them 4 times and got better each time out. He went from 4runs in 5 INN, to 4runs in 6Inn, to 1run in 7 INN to 1run in 9Inn. Perez has 8 career starts and K'd 10+ in 5 and nine in another but his last 4 starts last year he fanned 10+ three times and the last time out he had 9. Now the scary part is this year both Wilson and Perez have struggled to find there groove. Pitt just 39runs in 14games and Cincy 55 in 13 games.
Under 7.5 Astros/Brewers -117
If it wasnt for the FLU situation I would be on this more but dont read to much into this bullshit but Yost. Oswalt and Sheets both have great career numbers vs there respective opponents. Both guys are 8-4 but Sheets has a 3.16 ERA compred to 3.55. The one guy who hits Oswalt is Jenkins and he is in a major funk. The Stros struggle vs Sheets cause tehy are always predominantly RH lineup. Both teams struggling at the plate Milw @ .199 and Houston @ .252 Last 10 games. Sheets has had trouble getting run support in his starts and that trend continued in 05. Last time they matched up in Houston Oswalts Stros won 2-1my only concern is that this line has been adjusted about a run lower then last year but probably due to the fact these teams just dont hit that well. Oswalt allowed just 1run in 17innings at home last year vs Milwaukee while Sheets allowed just 4 runs in 13 innings.
Padres-106
This is sort of a GUT feel play. IMO last nite LA blew there load and that was the end to there winning streak ! Lowe has always struggled on teh road and you can see the incredible difference in his Home/AWAY splits even this year. Lowe just shutout SD at home last week and it wont be that easy again for him. Willimas was awful in Colorado but has bounced back with 2 decent starts but was the loser in the 4-0 games vs Lowe. SD back on track after the sweep with 2 wins vs SF. Williams has verygood numbers vs LA in his career(sub 3 ERA)and I think he pitches better this time around along the lines of 7innings and 2 or 3 runs.
Giants -140
Diamondbacks have just 1 win on the road and LHP will be there nemesis with only Glaus swinging a powerful RH bat but he is slumping .190 past 7 days. That lone win was thanks to the Colorado pen as they blew a 3-1 lead. Hitting .207 for the season vs LHP and jsut .171 away vs LHP. Lowry is tough at home in his young career and has impressed by leading SF to 2 wins over Colorado cause the Rockies actually hit LHP well. Vazquez doesnt look any better then he did last year in NY and why should I feel that will change. Last year Zona was 1-9 at Pac Bell.
Yankees -124
Yes I am glutton for punishment. Reality is the Yankees pound LHP and I believe it was 36-11 last season vs LH starters and 2-1 this year(though Chen has shut them down). Cant pass on those odds. Pavano has pitched fairly well in 2 of his 3 starts and really the second start was INCOMPLETE thanks to the liner . It didnt look good at the time but who knows what would have happened. Anyway Lilly doesnt have numbers vs his former team a 1-3 record and 4.50ERA and Lilly still isnt strong enough to go past 5 or 6innings IMO thanks to Shoulder tenditis in the Spring. Lilly lost his 1st 5 starts vs NY before he won in Sept 5-4 @ NY.
Under 10-110 NYY/Tor
Neither teams scares me with the bat right now and both SP are solid.
Royals +1.5Runs +144
Strange play but I dont like the way Minny is swinging the bats right now. Lima is alot like ElDuque last nite and he buckled down after getting spanked for 5 first inning runs last time out vs DET. Santana has been good but not great and you can just look at his pitch counts and innings pitched. So since I feel Johan is not