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Troy @ North Texas -3
North Texas for a while now has been the class of the Sun Belt, winning 26 consecutive conference games under head coach Darrell Dickey and going to 4 straight bowl games. The Eagles use a very simple offensive attack in which they run the ball to keep their opponent's offense on the sidelines, and when once their opponent's defense begins to stack the box with 8-9 defenders, they will perhaps look to pass a bit. For the past few years, North Texas has featured quite a few "stud" running backs. This year is no exception as they actually have two great RBs (probably 2 of the top 3 in the entire conference in my opinion) in Jamario Thomas and Patrick Cobbs. Last year Cobbs was the projected starter but got hurt so Thomas stepped in and rush for 1872 yards on 285 caries (a great 6.3 avg) along with 17 touchdowns. This year now that Cobbs is healthy, they are sharing the load of carries with Cobbs getting slightly more. WR Johnny Quinn may actually be the best wideout in the entire Sun Belt so they do have a good target to go to when they pass the ball. Last year's QB Scott Hall graduated, and this year's starter is a freshman Daniel Meager. He has yet to throw a TD pass I believe and because of that North Texas has been forced to rely heavily on their running game even more so. North Texas' defensive line is a bit inexperienced so they are susceptible to the run BUT their linebacking group is solid so they limit any potential breakaway TD runs from Troy. North Texas' secondary is average as they have two pretty fast cornerbacks (one in Ja'Mel Branch, a former WR) but their safeties could be susceptible to the pass as both starters are new.
Troy was everyone's shocker team from this conference last year as they upset Marshall and Missouri and went to a bowl game (their first ever in school history). However, their formula for success from last season isn't the same this year. Last year they relied on a very tough defense and a so-so offense to win games. They would stuff their opponent's running game (they only gave up 2.7 yards per carry last year) and try and get good field position. However, from the 11 starters last year, only 4 returned causing a youth movement on that side of the ball. Their defensive line is quite inexperienced with most notably DeMarcus Ware gone (despite having 3 seniors, they don't have a ton of playing time) while their linebacking group is still solid. Their secondary is a pretty similar to North Texas' in my opinion as they have solid cornerbacks but their safeties could prove to be their weak link back there due to inexperience.
So basically both teams have defensive lines that are inexperienced but have linebacking units that are solid in the 2nd level. Both teams have defensive backfields that are pretty good along the sidelines but could be beaten with the deep pass or passes down the middle of the field. Both teams are replacing starters along their offensive lines. So what's the difference? While North Texas has their two stud RBs, along with a very good WR...Troy lost their top RB from last year (DeWhitt Betterson) and their 2nd leading rusher, as well as their leading receiver (Jason Samples) from last season. While North Texas is being cautious with their freshman QB and playing conservative football, Troy has had a little trouble with its QB as Carl Meadows has managed to throw 3 TDs BUT also 6 interceptions.
If you take a look at team stat's, you'll see that Troy's RB joel Whinghter has rushed 32 times for 258 yards, a very good 8.1 yards per carry. However, on the year he only has 32 carries and I'm not too concerned about Whinghter as he is 6'0 and 207 lbs (that's actually more a build of a WR than a RB) and has yet to make the big play when needed this year it seems, hence Troy's passing the ball.
Stats right now are rather misleading for North Texas because of their 3 games they played, 2 were jump ups in competition (Tulsa is being pretty scrappy right now lol) . If you look at North Texas' results for the past few years you will see they always get trounced by outer-conference opponents BUT always win their Sun Belt games. HC Dickey uses those games as practices at times it seems to work out kinks. North Texas' PRIMARY goal is to simply win the Sun Belt and go to their bowl game which is automatically given to the Sun Belt champ (The New Orleans Bowl i believe).
Some quick tidbits regarding trends. Troy is 0-3 against the spread in Sun Belt away games. North Texas is 13-0 straight up in Sun Belt home games and 11-2 against the spread in those. Under HC Dickey they are 13-3 as a home favorite.
I think North Texas gets this one by more than a touchdown.
North Texas for a while now has been the class of the Sun Belt, winning 26 consecutive conference games under head coach Darrell Dickey and going to 4 straight bowl games. The Eagles use a very simple offensive attack in which they run the ball to keep their opponent's offense on the sidelines, and when once their opponent's defense begins to stack the box with 8-9 defenders, they will perhaps look to pass a bit. For the past few years, North Texas has featured quite a few "stud" running backs. This year is no exception as they actually have two great RBs (probably 2 of the top 3 in the entire conference in my opinion) in Jamario Thomas and Patrick Cobbs. Last year Cobbs was the projected starter but got hurt so Thomas stepped in and rush for 1872 yards on 285 caries (a great 6.3 avg) along with 17 touchdowns. This year now that Cobbs is healthy, they are sharing the load of carries with Cobbs getting slightly more. WR Johnny Quinn may actually be the best wideout in the entire Sun Belt so they do have a good target to go to when they pass the ball. Last year's QB Scott Hall graduated, and this year's starter is a freshman Daniel Meager. He has yet to throw a TD pass I believe and because of that North Texas has been forced to rely heavily on their running game even more so. North Texas' defensive line is a bit inexperienced so they are susceptible to the run BUT their linebacking group is solid so they limit any potential breakaway TD runs from Troy. North Texas' secondary is average as they have two pretty fast cornerbacks (one in Ja'Mel Branch, a former WR) but their safeties could be susceptible to the pass as both starters are new.
Troy was everyone's shocker team from this conference last year as they upset Marshall and Missouri and went to a bowl game (their first ever in school history). However, their formula for success from last season isn't the same this year. Last year they relied on a very tough defense and a so-so offense to win games. They would stuff their opponent's running game (they only gave up 2.7 yards per carry last year) and try and get good field position. However, from the 11 starters last year, only 4 returned causing a youth movement on that side of the ball. Their defensive line is quite inexperienced with most notably DeMarcus Ware gone (despite having 3 seniors, they don't have a ton of playing time) while their linebacking group is still solid. Their secondary is a pretty similar to North Texas' in my opinion as they have solid cornerbacks but their safeties could prove to be their weak link back there due to inexperience.
So basically both teams have defensive lines that are inexperienced but have linebacking units that are solid in the 2nd level. Both teams have defensive backfields that are pretty good along the sidelines but could be beaten with the deep pass or passes down the middle of the field. Both teams are replacing starters along their offensive lines. So what's the difference? While North Texas has their two stud RBs, along with a very good WR...Troy lost their top RB from last year (DeWhitt Betterson) and their 2nd leading rusher, as well as their leading receiver (Jason Samples) from last season. While North Texas is being cautious with their freshman QB and playing conservative football, Troy has had a little trouble with its QB as Carl Meadows has managed to throw 3 TDs BUT also 6 interceptions.
If you take a look at team stat's, you'll see that Troy's RB joel Whinghter has rushed 32 times for 258 yards, a very good 8.1 yards per carry. However, on the year he only has 32 carries and I'm not too concerned about Whinghter as he is 6'0 and 207 lbs (that's actually more a build of a WR than a RB) and has yet to make the big play when needed this year it seems, hence Troy's passing the ball.
Stats right now are rather misleading for North Texas because of their 3 games they played, 2 were jump ups in competition (Tulsa is being pretty scrappy right now lol) . If you look at North Texas' results for the past few years you will see they always get trounced by outer-conference opponents BUT always win their Sun Belt games. HC Dickey uses those games as practices at times it seems to work out kinks. North Texas' PRIMARY goal is to simply win the Sun Belt and go to their bowl game which is automatically given to the Sun Belt champ (The New Orleans Bowl i believe).
Some quick tidbits regarding trends. Troy is 0-3 against the spread in Sun Belt away games. North Texas is 13-0 straight up in Sun Belt home games and 11-2 against the spread in those. Under HC Dickey they are 13-3 as a home favorite.
I think North Texas gets this one by more than a touchdown.