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40-25-1 YTD on posted plays (64%)
Lions -2.5
There is so much hype surrounding Chicago right now I think its alot of BS. There defense is good not great. Not to mention they havent faced many good offenses. They played Cincy at home and allowed 28 points after that Minny is the next best offense and we know about there issues. Also in that game Minny really shot themselves in the foot botching 3 FG attempts so maybe 3 points allowed is misleading. They allowed 20 @ cleveland which in truth had alot to do with there offense not moving the ball and turning it over late. After that its Det and Baltimore at home and @ Wash in week 1 with Ramsey @ QB a very different offense now. So what have they really done that they should nt have done??? There offense has 4 games of 10 points or less and the two games where they scored more then 10 points they were at home and the majority of the drives started with short fields thanks to the defense. This Bear team has failed to win at Cleveland and @ Washington right now DET is a tougher opponent then both were when they met.
The Lions have some injuries but thats why I am waiting abit. Hopefully Shaun Rogers plays and Roy Williams as well. There WR are thin but they have a solid TE who they can throw to as well as Bryson out of the backfield. Another week should get Garcia and Kevin Jones abit closer to 100%. If both Williams paly @ WR I am not concerned at all with the offense. Bly is a tough loss but as I tried to explain its not a big loss this week cause Orton and chicago will not be able to take advantage of. Also R.W. McQuarters I believe will step in and he is serviceable. The best part is he is facing his old team who I believe left on shaky terms. I think every athlete gets up to face there former team . In what should be a low scoring game the FG kickers are important who would you rather have Jason Hanson or Robbie Gould? ........Exactly! If Det can get 17 or 20pts I feel very comfortable and confident with this play.
Patriots -9
Historically under Belichek the Pats arent great coming off the BYE. I think this is a different circumstance though. The Pats had an extremely tough schedule in teh first 6 games playing 4 tough road games and were in desperate need of a week off. Thats not even taking into acccount all the injuries tehy have had to overcome. Hopefully the extra pratice time helps the new players catch up. Buffalo is just awful vs the run and Dillon will shred them which is scary cause Brady is playing some of his best football and the Bills arent going to slow him. Not sure Kelly Holcomb is the QB who cant take advantage of there secondary. Oh yeah with Tedy Bruschi coming back you can bet that LB crew will play better whether its cause of Tedy on the field or his presence in a uniform. if I was a NE LB I would telling myself wow we arethis bad that this guy justhad a stroke 8 months ago and he feels the need to play and help out. The line is where it should be think back to week 1 NE hosts Oak laying 7.5 this past week Oak hosted Buff as -3 indicating similar strength. Well we know Buffalo is not the same a s Oakland and probably why we have seen this line run up. Really no difference at -9.
Steelers -10
Another line that quickly ran up. Bottomline is Ed Reed and Ray Lewis will not play that definetly brings that defense down a notch. There offense has not done anything to date and JamalLewis just isnt right . If they can hold Chi to 10 pts and not win how are they going to win vs an angry Steeler team. Pitts defense is still one of the best and will limit the Ravens offense who even in previous years struggled @ Pitt. Baltimore has scored 6 @ Chi , 10 @ Ten ,17 @ Det and this will be the best defense it faced. Its game high is 17 points this year. Pitt is angry about how they have played at home losing to Jags and Pats. The Ravens run defense on the road is not good think its around 130yds per game allowed away. Again thsi will be the best run offense it has faced. I expect a 24-10 Steeler win.
Bengals -8
GB is just decimated by injuries and this team will have to be a pass first offense. Not a great matchup vs the ballhawking secondary of Cincy. GB can slow th erun but the Palmer has to be licking his chops vs this secondary. Look at what Minny did late last week. You hate fading Brett with points to work with butreality is just like the Jets on monday this team is nearing a collapse IMO. They lost Robert Ferguson and Ahman Green from the offense to go along with Javon Walker...shambles I say! thinking 31-20 type game.
Over 41-108 NYG
Jumped on this early. First is Washingtons defense is good but vs solid offense like Denver and KC it allowed more then 20 points so I think NY will be in the low 20's here. I expect at some point for this to be tied @ 20 or 21 basically forcing u to win the total bet. Washingtons offense has played well @ Denver , @ KC and obviously last week vs SF. Always hate playing a team off a big output but I feel that it was three weeks in the making as they were screwed out of points at Denver and at KC. NY will be playing with heavy hearts due to teh passing of Wellington Mara who seems to have influenced many of the players he played for. The NFC East is none for smash mouth football but dont think we see that here.
and...
Eagles +4
Vikings +9
Texans ML -121
49er's +11
Redskins +2
Jaguars -2.5
Chargers -5.5
Lions -2.5
There is so much hype surrounding Chicago right now I think its alot of BS. There defense is good not great. Not to mention they havent faced many good offenses. They played Cincy at home and allowed 28 points after that Minny is the next best offense and we know about there issues. Also in that game Minny really shot themselves in the foot botching 3 FG attempts so maybe 3 points allowed is misleading. They allowed 20 @ cleveland which in truth had alot to do with there offense not moving the ball and turning it over late. After that its Det and Baltimore at home and @ Wash in week 1 with Ramsey @ QB a very different offense now. So what have they really done that they should nt have done??? There offense has 4 games of 10 points or less and the two games where they scored more then 10 points they were at home and the majority of the drives started with short fields thanks to the defense. This Bear team has failed to win at Cleveland and @ Washington right now DET is a tougher opponent then both were when they met.
The Lions have some injuries but thats why I am waiting abit. Hopefully Shaun Rogers plays and Roy Williams as well. There WR are thin but they have a solid TE who they can throw to as well as Bryson out of the backfield. Another week should get Garcia and Kevin Jones abit closer to 100%. If both Williams paly @ WR I am not concerned at all with the offense. Bly is a tough loss but as I tried to explain its not a big loss this week cause Orton and chicago will not be able to take advantage of. Also R.W. McQuarters I believe will step in and he is serviceable. The best part is he is facing his old team who I believe left on shaky terms. I think every athlete gets up to face there former team . In what should be a low scoring game the FG kickers are important who would you rather have Jason Hanson or Robbie Gould? ........Exactly! If Det can get 17 or 20pts I feel very comfortable and confident with this play.
Patriots -9
Historically under Belichek the Pats arent great coming off the BYE. I think this is a different circumstance though. The Pats had an extremely tough schedule in teh first 6 games playing 4 tough road games and were in desperate need of a week off. Thats not even taking into acccount all the injuries tehy have had to overcome. Hopefully the extra pratice time helps the new players catch up. Buffalo is just awful vs the run and Dillon will shred them which is scary cause Brady is playing some of his best football and the Bills arent going to slow him. Not sure Kelly Holcomb is the QB who cant take advantage of there secondary. Oh yeah with Tedy Bruschi coming back you can bet that LB crew will play better whether its cause of Tedy on the field or his presence in a uniform. if I was a NE LB I would telling myself wow we arethis bad that this guy justhad a stroke 8 months ago and he feels the need to play and help out. The line is where it should be think back to week 1 NE hosts Oak laying 7.5 this past week Oak hosted Buff as -3 indicating similar strength. Well we know Buffalo is not the same a s Oakland and probably why we have seen this line run up. Really no difference at -9.
Steelers -10
Another line that quickly ran up. Bottomline is Ed Reed and Ray Lewis will not play that definetly brings that defense down a notch. There offense has not done anything to date and JamalLewis just isnt right . If they can hold Chi to 10 pts and not win how are they going to win vs an angry Steeler team. Pitts defense is still one of the best and will limit the Ravens offense who even in previous years struggled @ Pitt. Baltimore has scored 6 @ Chi , 10 @ Ten ,17 @ Det and this will be the best defense it faced. Its game high is 17 points this year. Pitt is angry about how they have played at home losing to Jags and Pats. The Ravens run defense on the road is not good think its around 130yds per game allowed away. Again thsi will be the best run offense it has faced. I expect a 24-10 Steeler win.
Bengals -8
GB is just decimated by injuries and this team will have to be a pass first offense. Not a great matchup vs the ballhawking secondary of Cincy. GB can slow th erun but the Palmer has to be licking his chops vs this secondary. Look at what Minny did late last week. You hate fading Brett with points to work with butreality is just like the Jets on monday this team is nearing a collapse IMO. They lost Robert Ferguson and Ahman Green from the offense to go along with Javon Walker...shambles I say! thinking 31-20 type game.
Over 41-108 NYG
Jumped on this early. First is Washingtons defense is good but vs solid offense like Denver and KC it allowed more then 20 points so I think NY will be in the low 20's here. I expect at some point for this to be tied @ 20 or 21 basically forcing u to win the total bet. Washingtons offense has played well @ Denver , @ KC and obviously last week vs SF. Always hate playing a team off a big output but I feel that it was three weeks in the making as they were screwed out of points at Denver and at KC. NY will be playing with heavy hearts due to teh passing of Wellington Mara who seems to have influenced many of the players he played for. The NFC East is none for smash mouth football but dont think we see that here.
and...
Eagles +4
Vikings +9
Texans ML -121
49er's +11
Redskins +2
Jaguars -2.5
Chargers -5.5