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KC +3
The Chiefs head into Pepsi Arena on Sunday where the Bills are 3-1 this season. I do have to add however, that one of the main reasons I see them 3-1 at home is because those three wins were against the cheap ass teams of HOU, MIA, and the Jets. Their home loss came to ATL. It seems the public is buying into BUF in this game so you may see this line go up, but in case it doesn't, I am happy with the 3 points I am getting since I will be expecting KC to win this one SU. The Chiefs are a top 10 rushing team that just came off a narrow last second win on the road. They are facing what I believe is the worst rushing defense in the league. The Kansas City Star reported earlier in the week that Holmes may have a spinal problem that could keep him out an extended period of time. Even though Dick Vermeil is optimistic, Holmes was still sent for a third opinion late Tuesday night. Regardless, Johnson will do just fine without him. Even if Holmes played, I would not expect him to be used too much. On the other side, The Bills suck in the passing game, so it does not matter much that KC is on the bottom half of the league in stopping the pass. In order for the Bills to be competitive here, they need to run well behind Mcgahee. That will NOT happen. I have KC power ranked as the best defense in the league against the run. This is the way I came out saying LT would have a good game against a bad Jets rushing defense last week. Even though switching qbs helped the Jets get back in the game, the Chargers were dominant on the run all day. The difference in this game is that SD was favored by 6, and in this game the Chiefs with the better running attack are the dogs against a cheap ass rushing defense. I'm taking the Chiefs here.
WAS PK
This game features two tough defenses against the run , but TB is a just average against the pass. PHI has a better pass defense than TB and Brunnell went 21 for 29 for over 200 yards against them last week. I expect him to do better here. Besides, I am getting the feeling Santana Moss is due for some tds since he has not scored the last two weeks. This is the time to do it. TB's offense just sucks. And one thing I learned from this team is don't put money on them. I am definitely not going to do that against the skins D'.
DEN - 2 1/2
KC/BUF OVER 41 1/2
Denver is 4-0 ATS off a home win this year and 3-1 ATS against conference opponents. Oakland is 0-2 ATS this year as a home dog. The last road games these two had, left both teams with a bad taste as Denver lost to the Giants in the Meadowlands in week 7, and Oak lost a last second heartbreaker to the Chiefs at Arrowhead last week. Denver is coming off a bye and should be able to control this game as they have a top 10 offense running and passing while Oak is just slightly below average defensively on both. Oak is also above average on offense, but Denver has plenty of defense to keep them in check. Since being fired as Raiders coach by Al Davis 16 years ago, Shanahan is 15-5 against his former team. One of those wins was a 31-3 victory at OAK in October 2004. But the Raiders avenged that with a 25-24 win at Denver last November 28. Denver has two running backs over 500 yards in Mike Anderson (604) and Tatum Bell (562) while LaMont Jordan leads the Raiders with 592 rushing yards. Denver's rush defense will be too much for Jordan this week.
ARI/DET UNDER 40
CHI - 12 1/2
This game has CHI written all over it. The public is on it as well, so it's best to take it now before it goes up higher. The Niners have failed to be competitive on the road, where they have been outscored 125-34 in three losses. Now they are facing the Bears, who are tied for first in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing just 12.3 points per game. They are third in total defense. This matchup does not favor the Niners at all, who rank last in the NFL at 204.3 yards per game and are down to fourth-string quarterback Cody Pickett. They can't run or pass offensively, and they can't stop the run or pass defensively. Bottom line. They suck. This is one chance for CHI to shine and look like football gods, and you can bet your ass their going to take it. It will probably be a blowout and still stay under as I don't see SF doing much here. Kind of how IND was favored by 15 over HOU earlier this year. They covered and still stayed under. The matchup to watch here will probably be Bears wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad against right cornerback Shawntae Spencer. But make no mistake about it, Thomas Jones will have a field day here. Brian Urlacher, who has six sacks, will probably get a couple more here as well. The Bears are seeking their longest winning streak since a six-game run in 2001. They went 13-3 en route to winning the NFC Central that season. Last week, Kyle Orton had a bad game and completed just 12-of-26 passes for 137 yards and a touchdown with two interceptions and a lost fumble, but the Bears were still able to post a 20-17 victory at New Orleans. While the Niners are still without rookie Alex Smith and Ken Dorsey to injuries, Pickett was unable to move the offense in last week's 24-6 loss to the New York Giants. Pickett went 12-of-21 for 102 yards with an interception and the Niners totaled just 138 yards and nine first downs. And all this was at home. Now, they are at Soldier Field, where they will be eaten alive and their bones will be spit out.
GB + 10 1/2
GB/ATL OVER 41 1/2
On Sunday, Favre faces the team that originally drafted him. He was traded to the Packers in 1992 for a first-round pick. In his fourth career start in GB, Favre faced the Falcons on October 4, 1992. He completed 33-of-43 passes for 276 yards and a touchdown with an interception in a 24-10 loss. This is the third career matchup between Favre and Vick. After Favre bested Vick in the 2002 season opener, Vick returned the favor in the wild card round that campaign as the Falcons posted a 27-7 victory over the Packers at Lambeau Field. Green Bay is 0-4 on the road this year and this week they are facing the league's top-ranked rushing game that is averaging 184.9 yards. Warrick Dunn has rushed for 820 yards to lead the way. ATL will definitely score points on this defense. But I have never liked laying too many points on Favre. Last week was the only time I stayed away and that was only because PIT (IMO) has a good passing defense and I figured they would sloe him down. ATL is average against the pass, but Favre will get his share of points as well on this defense making this a 27-23 type game. So along with covering over 10 pts, I also expect this game to go over.
JETS +10 1/2
NYJ/CAR UNDER 41 1/2
I know... I know... but yes, I am taking the Jets here. This is going against one of my main rules of not puting money down on a bad team with a bad qb against a good team with a good qb, but I really like my chances here. Every team the Panthers have faced (except for DET), has a below average to worse pass defense. DET is top 10 material against the pass, but CAR won that game by only 1 point. Sure, Delhomme still threw for over 200 yards and 2 tds, but he had 3 int's in that game. If you have a team with good pass coverage, expect him to make mistakes. The Jets are also top 10 material, and they will probaby want to use cornerback Ty Law, who has four interceptions this season, to shadow Smith. But even Law may not be able to deal with Smith's speed. Plus the guy is on fire right now. The Jets are having more than their share of injuries this season after nearly reaching the AFC championship game last season. Starting quarterback Chad Pennington, backup quarterback Jay Fiedler, center Kevin Mawae, starting outside linebacker Eric Barton, wide receiver Wayne Chrebet and tight end Chris Baker have been sidelined with injuries for New York. All but Fiedler were placed on IR. Brooks Bollinger came off the bench and nearly sparked the Jets to a win, passing for 106 yards and two touchdowns after replacing an ineffective Vinny Testaverde in the third quarter, and if there is any weakness in the CAR defense, it is at stopping the pass, where they are below average, but they do have cornerback Chris Gamble, who returned an interception 61 yards for a touchdown last week. He has three picks this season. CAR is actually 1-2 ATS as a home favorite this year and 5-12 the last three years. They should win this game, but not by this many points. This team is not concentrating on the Jets this week. They are tied for first with ATL for the division lead and feel unstoppable after 2 big blowouts the last 2 weeks (against 2 suck teams in the pass defense category). If anything, they are looking ahead to the big matchup they have next week against the 1st place NFC North leaders Da Bears at Soldier Field. I expect a let down by CAR this week. Take the 747's here.
HOU +18
The Colts have won their last five games by an average of 20 points. One of the Colts' lopsided wins this season came at the expense of the Texans in a 38-20 victory on October 23. James led the way, rushing for 139 yards and two touchdowns. Manning went 21-of-27 for 237 yards and two touchdowns with an interception. But it was in the second half that the Colts reeled 24 consecutive points to break a 14-14 halftime tie as they improved to 7-0 all-time against the Texans. Carr had his best game of the season in last week's 21-14 loss at Jacksonville as he went 22-of-30 for 219 yards and a touchdown. This team is improving week by week, and their best chance to compete here is to use Domanick Davis as much as possible against IND rushing defense, which is probably their weakest part. IND will not be looking ahead to any games because they are taking each game seriously, but this situation is great for HOU as Indy is coming off a huge win over the Patriots on Monday and are facing CIN next week at the Jungle. I am looking for them to play sloppy in this one like they did against the Browns early in the year. They will still dominate, but 18 points is too much for me. I figure it will be something like a 24-13 game. I'm on the Texans in this one.
KC +3
The Chiefs head into Pepsi Arena on Sunday where the Bills are 3-1 this season. I do have to add however, that one of the main reasons I see them 3-1 at home is because those three wins were against the cheap ass teams of HOU, MIA, and the Jets. Their home loss came to ATL. It seems the public is buying into BUF in this game so you may see this line go up, but in case it doesn't, I am happy with the 3 points I am getting since I will be expecting KC to win this one SU. The Chiefs are a top 10 rushing team that just came off a narrow last second win on the road. They are facing what I believe is the worst rushing defense in the league. The Kansas City Star reported earlier in the week that Holmes may have a spinal problem that could keep him out an extended period of time. Even though Dick Vermeil is optimistic, Holmes was still sent for a third opinion late Tuesday night. Regardless, Johnson will do just fine without him. Even if Holmes played, I would not expect him to be used too much. On the other side, The Bills suck in the passing game, so it does not matter much that KC is on the bottom half of the league in stopping the pass. In order for the Bills to be competitive here, they need to run well behind Mcgahee. That will NOT happen. I have KC power ranked as the best defense in the league against the run. This is the way I came out saying LT would have a good game against a bad Jets rushing defense last week. Even though switching qbs helped the Jets get back in the game, the Chargers were dominant on the run all day. The difference in this game is that SD was favored by 6, and in this game the Chiefs with the better running attack are the dogs against a cheap ass rushing defense. I'm taking the Chiefs here.
WAS PK
This game features two tough defenses against the run , but TB is a just average against the pass. PHI has a better pass defense than TB and Brunnell went 21 for 29 for over 200 yards against them last week. I expect him to do better here. Besides, I am getting the feeling Santana Moss is due for some tds since he has not scored the last two weeks. This is the time to do it. TB's offense just sucks. And one thing I learned from this team is don't put money on them. I am definitely not going to do that against the skins D'.
DEN - 2 1/2
KC/BUF OVER 41 1/2
Denver is 4-0 ATS off a home win this year and 3-1 ATS against conference opponents. Oakland is 0-2 ATS this year as a home dog. The last road games these two had, left both teams with a bad taste as Denver lost to the Giants in the Meadowlands in week 7, and Oak lost a last second heartbreaker to the Chiefs at Arrowhead last week. Denver is coming off a bye and should be able to control this game as they have a top 10 offense running and passing while Oak is just slightly below average defensively on both. Oak is also above average on offense, but Denver has plenty of defense to keep them in check. Since being fired as Raiders coach by Al Davis 16 years ago, Shanahan is 15-5 against his former team. One of those wins was a 31-3 victory at OAK in October 2004. But the Raiders avenged that with a 25-24 win at Denver last November 28. Denver has two running backs over 500 yards in Mike Anderson (604) and Tatum Bell (562) while LaMont Jordan leads the Raiders with 592 rushing yards. Denver's rush defense will be too much for Jordan this week.
ARI/DET UNDER 40
CHI - 12 1/2
This game has CHI written all over it. The public is on it as well, so it's best to take it now before it goes up higher. The Niners have failed to be competitive on the road, where they have been outscored 125-34 in three losses. Now they are facing the Bears, who are tied for first in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing just 12.3 points per game. They are third in total defense. This matchup does not favor the Niners at all, who rank last in the NFL at 204.3 yards per game and are down to fourth-string quarterback Cody Pickett. They can't run or pass offensively, and they can't stop the run or pass defensively. Bottom line. They suck. This is one chance for CHI to shine and look like football gods, and you can bet your ass their going to take it. It will probably be a blowout and still stay under as I don't see SF doing much here. Kind of how IND was favored by 15 over HOU earlier this year. They covered and still stayed under. The matchup to watch here will probably be Bears wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad against right cornerback Shawntae Spencer. But make no mistake about it, Thomas Jones will have a field day here. Brian Urlacher, who has six sacks, will probably get a couple more here as well. The Bears are seeking their longest winning streak since a six-game run in 2001. They went 13-3 en route to winning the NFC Central that season. Last week, Kyle Orton had a bad game and completed just 12-of-26 passes for 137 yards and a touchdown with two interceptions and a lost fumble, but the Bears were still able to post a 20-17 victory at New Orleans. While the Niners are still without rookie Alex Smith and Ken Dorsey to injuries, Pickett was unable to move the offense in last week's 24-6 loss to the New York Giants. Pickett went 12-of-21 for 102 yards with an interception and the Niners totaled just 138 yards and nine first downs. And all this was at home. Now, they are at Soldier Field, where they will be eaten alive and their bones will be spit out.
GB + 10 1/2
GB/ATL OVER 41 1/2
On Sunday, Favre faces the team that originally drafted him. He was traded to the Packers in 1992 for a first-round pick. In his fourth career start in GB, Favre faced the Falcons on October 4, 1992. He completed 33-of-43 passes for 276 yards and a touchdown with an interception in a 24-10 loss. This is the third career matchup between Favre and Vick. After Favre bested Vick in the 2002 season opener, Vick returned the favor in the wild card round that campaign as the Falcons posted a 27-7 victory over the Packers at Lambeau Field. Green Bay is 0-4 on the road this year and this week they are facing the league's top-ranked rushing game that is averaging 184.9 yards. Warrick Dunn has rushed for 820 yards to lead the way. ATL will definitely score points on this defense. But I have never liked laying too many points on Favre. Last week was the only time I stayed away and that was only because PIT (IMO) has a good passing defense and I figured they would sloe him down. ATL is average against the pass, but Favre will get his share of points as well on this defense making this a 27-23 type game. So along with covering over 10 pts, I also expect this game to go over.
JETS +10 1/2
NYJ/CAR UNDER 41 1/2
I know... I know... but yes, I am taking the Jets here. This is going against one of my main rules of not puting money down on a bad team with a bad qb against a good team with a good qb, but I really like my chances here. Every team the Panthers have faced (except for DET), has a below average to worse pass defense. DET is top 10 material against the pass, but CAR won that game by only 1 point. Sure, Delhomme still threw for over 200 yards and 2 tds, but he had 3 int's in that game. If you have a team with good pass coverage, expect him to make mistakes. The Jets are also top 10 material, and they will probaby want to use cornerback Ty Law, who has four interceptions this season, to shadow Smith. But even Law may not be able to deal with Smith's speed. Plus the guy is on fire right now. The Jets are having more than their share of injuries this season after nearly reaching the AFC championship game last season. Starting quarterback Chad Pennington, backup quarterback Jay Fiedler, center Kevin Mawae, starting outside linebacker Eric Barton, wide receiver Wayne Chrebet and tight end Chris Baker have been sidelined with injuries for New York. All but Fiedler were placed on IR. Brooks Bollinger came off the bench and nearly sparked the Jets to a win, passing for 106 yards and two touchdowns after replacing an ineffective Vinny Testaverde in the third quarter, and if there is any weakness in the CAR defense, it is at stopping the pass, where they are below average, but they do have cornerback Chris Gamble, who returned an interception 61 yards for a touchdown last week. He has three picks this season. CAR is actually 1-2 ATS as a home favorite this year and 5-12 the last three years. They should win this game, but not by this many points. This team is not concentrating on the Jets this week. They are tied for first with ATL for the division lead and feel unstoppable after 2 big blowouts the last 2 weeks (against 2 suck teams in the pass defense category). If anything, they are looking ahead to the big matchup they have next week against the 1st place NFC North leaders Da Bears at Soldier Field. I expect a let down by CAR this week. Take the 747's here.
HOU +18
The Colts have won their last five games by an average of 20 points. One of the Colts' lopsided wins this season came at the expense of the Texans in a 38-20 victory on October 23. James led the way, rushing for 139 yards and two touchdowns. Manning went 21-of-27 for 237 yards and two touchdowns with an interception. But it was in the second half that the Colts reeled 24 consecutive points to break a 14-14 halftime tie as they improved to 7-0 all-time against the Texans. Carr had his best game of the season in last week's 21-14 loss at Jacksonville as he went 22-of-30 for 219 yards and a touchdown. This team is improving week by week, and their best chance to compete here is to use Domanick Davis as much as possible against IND rushing defense, which is probably their weakest part. IND will not be looking ahead to any games because they are taking each game seriously, but this situation is great for HOU as Indy is coming off a huge win over the Patriots on Monday and are facing CIN next week at the Jungle. I am looking for them to play sloppy in this one like they did against the Browns early in the year. They will still dominate, but 18 points is too much for me. I figure it will be something like a 24-13 game. I'm on the Texans in this one.