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November 2 at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium.
That’s when the Big East champion will be decided when West Virginia marches into Louisville. The Mountaineers and the Cardinals have clearly established themselves as the class of the conference this year, but other teams are serving notice they’re not to be taken lightly.
Dave Wannstedt’s presence at Pitt and the revamped football facilities at UConn have boosted both programs in the eyes of potential recruits. Rutgers and South Florida are winning their respective battles for Division I-A respectability.
Unfortunately Cincy and Syracuse have a considerable jump to make before their football programs can match the success of their basketball teams.
West Virginia Mountaineers (+140 to win Big East championship)
Head coach Rich Rodriguez stuck Pat White behind center when the Mountaineers were down by 17 to Louisville and the offense was never the same. While White didn’t face Virginia Tech’s defense like then-starter Adam Bednarik had to, the team’s 38.8 point-per-game average over White’s five starts last year (5-0 ATS, by the way) is still impressive. White can scamper and as long as he maintains his accuracy from last year the Mountaineers should be able to lean on their running game again.
White will hand the ball to fellow jackrabbit Steve Slaton, whose highlights last year included six touchdowns in the triple-overtime win over Louisville and a Sugar Bowl record 204 yards on the ground against Georgia. Slaton will run behind a line anchored by All-American center Dan Mozes, though there are some concerns about starting new tackles on both sides of the line.
The Mountaineers use a 3-3-5 defensive formation, with lots of experience on the line and at linebacker. The key is converting the untested talent in the secondary into a game-ready unit by the time the team faces Louisville’s vaunted passing game.
Undefeated seasons are hard to come by, but the Mountaineers’ schedule seems custom-fitted to such grand dreams. A win in Louisville would pave their way to the BCS title game.
This year they’ll catch no one off guard – they’re a consensus top-10 team and everyone’s aware of their friendly schedule. That includes the books, who will likely make West Virginia double-digit favorites far more often than the four times that it happened in 2005.
Prediction: 12-0 straight-up (SU), 7-5 against the spread (ATS)
Louisville Cardinals (+150)
The Cardinals were last year’s Mountaineers, with pundits eyeing their schedule and calling for an undefeated season. Bobby Petrino’s Louisville squad were at least 13-point favorites in 10 of their 12 games last year, which explains how they ended up 6-6 ATS despite averaging over 43 points per game.
Petrino admitted that the switch from Conference USA to the Big East in 2005 opened up some of his players’ eyes with the more physical style of football. The team has to beef up to take on a running team like WVU and the return of the entire starting secondary and two of three starting linebackers is a good start. Replacing rush end Elvis Dumervil’s 20 sacks from last year is the concern on the defensive line.
The offense will score points behind Brian Brohm’s arm and Michael Bush’s legs, both All-Americans at their positions. Brohm has recovered from a torn ACL and has a variety of weapons in the team’s spread attack, led by deep threat Mario Urrutia. Like West Virginia, the Cardinals will be starting new tackles around an experienced middle of the line.
Louisville had higher hopes than West Virginia last year and returns this year with more starters than their conference rival. So they’ll look to prove wrong the experts who have catapulted the Mountaineers past the Cardinals in preseason rankings. Nov. 2 is their big opportunity to do so, though if they want to run the table this year, there’s an earlier test when the Hurricanes come to town on September 16.
Prediction: 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS
South Florida Bulls (+500)
An exciting season in Tampa came to an end with a shutout loss to NC State in the Meineke Car Care Bowl on New Year’s Eve last year. That game also marked the Bulls’ fourth consecutive ATS loss, largely due to an offense that scored just two touchdowns in its final three games. Still, much respect must go to coach Jim Leavitt for bringing a fledgling program to the postseason so quickly.
USF’s biggest win last year was the 45-14 trouncing they laid on Lousiville when they were 20-point dogs. If they want a repeat performance this year, however, they have to find a replacement for running back Andre Hall, last year’s biggest offensive weapon. Pat Julmiste has impressed the Bulls’ staff over the summer and his ability to understand the team’s four-wideout spread will determine the offensive unit’s point production. Left tackle Thed Watson is the best player on a decent line.
The USF strength is its defense, specifically its linebackers. The unit starts together for the third straight year and is backed by a deep and talented secondary. The question marks arise at defensive end, where the speed of the new starters will have to make up for lack of size and experience.
The Bulls end their season on the road against Louisville and West Virginia, so their bowl hopes will be determined by their early record. Having its games against Rutgers, UConn and Pitt at home is a big advantage. The defense looks strong enough to repeat last year’s performance, in which nine of their 11 games with a total played under.
Prediction: 7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS
Pittsburgh Panthers (+550)
It’s been 30 years since Pitt won its last national championship. Blind optimism led some Pitt fans to think last year that Dave Wannstedt was the perfect hiring to return the team to the glory days. The Panthers had, after all, won 25 games in the previous three years and stood to grasp the glory in a weakened conference. The team instead started 0-3 and wrapped up with a convincing loss at WVU to finish with a losing record.
There was too much pressure on quarterback Tyler Palko last year thanks to a young offensive line and a virtually non-existent running game. He was sacked 19 times in the first five games in 2005 and struggled through the air (after ending 2004 with a 17-2 TD-to-INT ratio over his final six games). Mighty mite Larod Stephens-Howling must stay healthy to bolster an otherwise weak running game. Four starters return on the line, which should make for improved pass protection. Palko will need it, as the receiving corps behind Derek Kinder is inexperienced.
All-American H.B. Blades highlights an experienced linebacker crew that needs to excel behind an undersized defensive line. The team allowed only 10 passing touchdowns in its 11 games last year, but inexperience (there’s that word again!) at key secondary spots is a concern.
The Panthers’ youth looks like a weakness but could be a strength if highly-touted players deliver on their potential. The team has seven home games and UCF is its only in-conference challenge on the road. The non-conference schedule could allow a bowl berth, though Pitt’s ability to establish the run is the real key.
Prediction: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS
Connecticut Huskies (+1600)
Like South Florida, Connecticut has had to find ways to overcome its offensive woes to win games. The defense was usually up to the task and has limited opposing offenses enough for a 7-14 O/U record over the past two seasons. Head coach Randy Edsall is building a strong program in Storrs / Hartford and the prep talent stopped ignoring UConn some time ago. Edsall can only hope some of the offensive talent delivers this year.
D.J. Hernandez has been named the starter to begin the campaign after making just two starts last year. One of them, however, was a three-touchdown performance to cover the spread against Louisville in the final game of the season. Hernandez will have to pray for the development of his young receivers and offensive line. Terry Caulley will be a huge help if he’s fully recovered from his 2003 knee injury. He’ll split carries with powerful sophomore Lou Allen.
The Huskies will rotate six-to-eight players through their defensive line and have the bodies to do it. There are a couple of holes to fill at linebacker, but the secondary returns all four starters.
Keep an eye on the Huskies’ return game, an occasional source of points last year.
The books underestimated the Huskies during their first Big East season, leading to UConn’s 6-3-1 ATS record, 4-3 within the conference. Won’t happen again. The Huskies need a 4-2 record before their meeting with West Virginia if they want to land in a bowl game. The defense will do their part, but the skill positions must deliver skill plays for that quick start to happen.
Prediction: 6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+400)
Greg Schiano churned out a winning team in Piscataway, NJ last year and brought the Scarlet Knights to their first bowl game since 1978. Unfortunately bettors didn’t feel as good about the team as its fans did, due to a 5-6 ATS record and a 2-4 ATS record as a favorite. Ah, to relive 2003, when the Knights were fresh off a 1-11 season and the books dogged them enough to allow a 10-1-1 ATS record.
Rutgers has top-notch talent at running back with thunder-and-lightning duo Brian Leonard and Ray Rice. The offense pounded opposing defenses to the tune of 162 rushing yards per game last year. Expect more of the same this season. Mike Teel held onto the starting quarterback job and now has to improve on last year’s performance to keep it. He’ll have tight end Clark Harris as his most dependable target and as part of an experienced offensive line too.
The Knights’ defense was lit up by Arizona State in the Insight Bowl last year, not helped by the blitzing schemes that led to 47 team sacks but exposed defensive backs too frequently. The team allowed 56 points to Louisville, indicative of their troubles against more-than-competent passing attacks.
If Teel can get the ball downfield consistently and ease the pressure off Leonard and Rice then they can improve their record even further. If he can`t pass, then the Knights may have to settle for a .500 record. The schedule seems to have six wins and two losses virtually guaranteed. Road games against North Carolina, South Florida, Navy and Pitt will determine their bowl credentials.
Prediction: 6-6 SU, 3-9 ATS
Cincinnati Bearcats (+1400)
The Bengals may be the Cincinnati football team on the rise, but at least coach Mark Dantonio can keep his Bearcats out of jail. Hey-o! Cincinnati should benefit from last year’s learning experience, during which too many true freshmen were on the field for too many snaps to expect a winning season.
Quarterback Dustin Grutza was expected to improve on last year’s numbers in his second full year at the helm of the offense, but hasn’t impressed Dantonio in either the spring or summer practices and hasn’t yet been officially anointed the starter. Only one starter returns from a line that allowed 40 sacks last year, which might not be a bad thing as far as the quarterbacks are concerned. The Bearcats feature big tailbacks running behind a 280-pound fullback, so expect lots of grinding between the tackles.
Ten starters return on defense, four of whom are sophomores, which excites Dantonio to no end. The defensive line is home to the most potential, but cornerback Mike Mickens is getting the preseason All-Big East recognition after a true freshman year in which he was repeatedly thrown at and responded with 14 knockdowns.
By all accounts, the young Bearcats will be a better team than the 2005 version. Unfortunately their record might not show it. They have four sure losses on the road and might not have the team to beat Pitt, USF or Rutgers, even though all three games are in Cincy. Combine their heavy schedule with their almost certain improvement, however, and the Bearcats could be the recipients of some very friendly lines to start the season.
Prediction: 3-10 SU, 8-4 ATS
Syracuse Orange (+750)
Greg Robinson’s first year as head coach at Syracuse wasn’t quite what Orange supporters had hoped for. The 1-10 record was the worst in school history, though backers may have been pleased by the team’s decent road efforts against Notre Dame and Louisville to close the season. The Orange covered the massive spreads in both games to raise their ATS record to a still-disappointing 4-7. They didn’t win a single game against a Big East opponent and their 41-17 loss to the Cardinals was their sole ATS victory.
Brian White is the new offensive co-ordinator, imported from Wisconsin. Last year’s offense topped 17 points just twice, so there’s lots of work to do. Senior quarterback Perry Patterson hopes to build on his strong spring showing, but needs protection from an offensive line that doesn’t look ready to offer it yet. Like the offensive line, the backfield sees a few new faces, none of whom has distinguished himself as a workhorse runner. At least the top two receivers return, challenged for playing time by JUCO transfer Taj Smith.
Sadly the defense isn’t looking that much stronger as a unit than the Orange offense. A linebacker corps of seniors, led by Kelvin Smith, will have to make up for inexperience on the defensive line and a lack of depth in the secondary.
Syracuse’s most winnable games in conference are at Cincy and at home to UConn. Beyond those two, a visit to Illinois and home games against Wyoming and Miami, Ohio are the Orange’s only shots at entering the ‘W’ column.
Prediction: 1-10 SU, 4-8 ATS
That’s when the Big East champion will be decided when West Virginia marches into Louisville. The Mountaineers and the Cardinals have clearly established themselves as the class of the conference this year, but other teams are serving notice they’re not to be taken lightly.
Dave Wannstedt’s presence at Pitt and the revamped football facilities at UConn have boosted both programs in the eyes of potential recruits. Rutgers and South Florida are winning their respective battles for Division I-A respectability.
Unfortunately Cincy and Syracuse have a considerable jump to make before their football programs can match the success of their basketball teams.
West Virginia Mountaineers (+140 to win Big East championship)
Head coach Rich Rodriguez stuck Pat White behind center when the Mountaineers were down by 17 to Louisville and the offense was never the same. While White didn’t face Virginia Tech’s defense like then-starter Adam Bednarik had to, the team’s 38.8 point-per-game average over White’s five starts last year (5-0 ATS, by the way) is still impressive. White can scamper and as long as he maintains his accuracy from last year the Mountaineers should be able to lean on their running game again.
White will hand the ball to fellow jackrabbit Steve Slaton, whose highlights last year included six touchdowns in the triple-overtime win over Louisville and a Sugar Bowl record 204 yards on the ground against Georgia. Slaton will run behind a line anchored by All-American center Dan Mozes, though there are some concerns about starting new tackles on both sides of the line.
The Mountaineers use a 3-3-5 defensive formation, with lots of experience on the line and at linebacker. The key is converting the untested talent in the secondary into a game-ready unit by the time the team faces Louisville’s vaunted passing game.
Undefeated seasons are hard to come by, but the Mountaineers’ schedule seems custom-fitted to such grand dreams. A win in Louisville would pave their way to the BCS title game.
This year they’ll catch no one off guard – they’re a consensus top-10 team and everyone’s aware of their friendly schedule. That includes the books, who will likely make West Virginia double-digit favorites far more often than the four times that it happened in 2005.
Prediction: 12-0 straight-up (SU), 7-5 against the spread (ATS)
Louisville Cardinals (+150)
The Cardinals were last year’s Mountaineers, with pundits eyeing their schedule and calling for an undefeated season. Bobby Petrino’s Louisville squad were at least 13-point favorites in 10 of their 12 games last year, which explains how they ended up 6-6 ATS despite averaging over 43 points per game.
Petrino admitted that the switch from Conference USA to the Big East in 2005 opened up some of his players’ eyes with the more physical style of football. The team has to beef up to take on a running team like WVU and the return of the entire starting secondary and two of three starting linebackers is a good start. Replacing rush end Elvis Dumervil’s 20 sacks from last year is the concern on the defensive line.
The offense will score points behind Brian Brohm’s arm and Michael Bush’s legs, both All-Americans at their positions. Brohm has recovered from a torn ACL and has a variety of weapons in the team’s spread attack, led by deep threat Mario Urrutia. Like West Virginia, the Cardinals will be starting new tackles around an experienced middle of the line.
Louisville had higher hopes than West Virginia last year and returns this year with more starters than their conference rival. So they’ll look to prove wrong the experts who have catapulted the Mountaineers past the Cardinals in preseason rankings. Nov. 2 is their big opportunity to do so, though if they want to run the table this year, there’s an earlier test when the Hurricanes come to town on September 16.
Prediction: 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS
South Florida Bulls (+500)
An exciting season in Tampa came to an end with a shutout loss to NC State in the Meineke Car Care Bowl on New Year’s Eve last year. That game also marked the Bulls’ fourth consecutive ATS loss, largely due to an offense that scored just two touchdowns in its final three games. Still, much respect must go to coach Jim Leavitt for bringing a fledgling program to the postseason so quickly.
USF’s biggest win last year was the 45-14 trouncing they laid on Lousiville when they were 20-point dogs. If they want a repeat performance this year, however, they have to find a replacement for running back Andre Hall, last year’s biggest offensive weapon. Pat Julmiste has impressed the Bulls’ staff over the summer and his ability to understand the team’s four-wideout spread will determine the offensive unit’s point production. Left tackle Thed Watson is the best player on a decent line.
The USF strength is its defense, specifically its linebackers. The unit starts together for the third straight year and is backed by a deep and talented secondary. The question marks arise at defensive end, where the speed of the new starters will have to make up for lack of size and experience.
The Bulls end their season on the road against Louisville and West Virginia, so their bowl hopes will be determined by their early record. Having its games against Rutgers, UConn and Pitt at home is a big advantage. The defense looks strong enough to repeat last year’s performance, in which nine of their 11 games with a total played under.
Prediction: 7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS
Pittsburgh Panthers (+550)
It’s been 30 years since Pitt won its last national championship. Blind optimism led some Pitt fans to think last year that Dave Wannstedt was the perfect hiring to return the team to the glory days. The Panthers had, after all, won 25 games in the previous three years and stood to grasp the glory in a weakened conference. The team instead started 0-3 and wrapped up with a convincing loss at WVU to finish with a losing record.
There was too much pressure on quarterback Tyler Palko last year thanks to a young offensive line and a virtually non-existent running game. He was sacked 19 times in the first five games in 2005 and struggled through the air (after ending 2004 with a 17-2 TD-to-INT ratio over his final six games). Mighty mite Larod Stephens-Howling must stay healthy to bolster an otherwise weak running game. Four starters return on the line, which should make for improved pass protection. Palko will need it, as the receiving corps behind Derek Kinder is inexperienced.
All-American H.B. Blades highlights an experienced linebacker crew that needs to excel behind an undersized defensive line. The team allowed only 10 passing touchdowns in its 11 games last year, but inexperience (there’s that word again!) at key secondary spots is a concern.
The Panthers’ youth looks like a weakness but could be a strength if highly-touted players deliver on their potential. The team has seven home games and UCF is its only in-conference challenge on the road. The non-conference schedule could allow a bowl berth, though Pitt’s ability to establish the run is the real key.
Prediction: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS
Connecticut Huskies (+1600)
Like South Florida, Connecticut has had to find ways to overcome its offensive woes to win games. The defense was usually up to the task and has limited opposing offenses enough for a 7-14 O/U record over the past two seasons. Head coach Randy Edsall is building a strong program in Storrs / Hartford and the prep talent stopped ignoring UConn some time ago. Edsall can only hope some of the offensive talent delivers this year.
D.J. Hernandez has been named the starter to begin the campaign after making just two starts last year. One of them, however, was a three-touchdown performance to cover the spread against Louisville in the final game of the season. Hernandez will have to pray for the development of his young receivers and offensive line. Terry Caulley will be a huge help if he’s fully recovered from his 2003 knee injury. He’ll split carries with powerful sophomore Lou Allen.
The Huskies will rotate six-to-eight players through their defensive line and have the bodies to do it. There are a couple of holes to fill at linebacker, but the secondary returns all four starters.
Keep an eye on the Huskies’ return game, an occasional source of points last year.
The books underestimated the Huskies during their first Big East season, leading to UConn’s 6-3-1 ATS record, 4-3 within the conference. Won’t happen again. The Huskies need a 4-2 record before their meeting with West Virginia if they want to land in a bowl game. The defense will do their part, but the skill positions must deliver skill plays for that quick start to happen.
Prediction: 6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+400)
Greg Schiano churned out a winning team in Piscataway, NJ last year and brought the Scarlet Knights to their first bowl game since 1978. Unfortunately bettors didn’t feel as good about the team as its fans did, due to a 5-6 ATS record and a 2-4 ATS record as a favorite. Ah, to relive 2003, when the Knights were fresh off a 1-11 season and the books dogged them enough to allow a 10-1-1 ATS record.
Rutgers has top-notch talent at running back with thunder-and-lightning duo Brian Leonard and Ray Rice. The offense pounded opposing defenses to the tune of 162 rushing yards per game last year. Expect more of the same this season. Mike Teel held onto the starting quarterback job and now has to improve on last year’s performance to keep it. He’ll have tight end Clark Harris as his most dependable target and as part of an experienced offensive line too.
The Knights’ defense was lit up by Arizona State in the Insight Bowl last year, not helped by the blitzing schemes that led to 47 team sacks but exposed defensive backs too frequently. The team allowed 56 points to Louisville, indicative of their troubles against more-than-competent passing attacks.
If Teel can get the ball downfield consistently and ease the pressure off Leonard and Rice then they can improve their record even further. If he can`t pass, then the Knights may have to settle for a .500 record. The schedule seems to have six wins and two losses virtually guaranteed. Road games against North Carolina, South Florida, Navy and Pitt will determine their bowl credentials.
Prediction: 6-6 SU, 3-9 ATS
Cincinnati Bearcats (+1400)
The Bengals may be the Cincinnati football team on the rise, but at least coach Mark Dantonio can keep his Bearcats out of jail. Hey-o! Cincinnati should benefit from last year’s learning experience, during which too many true freshmen were on the field for too many snaps to expect a winning season.
Quarterback Dustin Grutza was expected to improve on last year’s numbers in his second full year at the helm of the offense, but hasn’t impressed Dantonio in either the spring or summer practices and hasn’t yet been officially anointed the starter. Only one starter returns from a line that allowed 40 sacks last year, which might not be a bad thing as far as the quarterbacks are concerned. The Bearcats feature big tailbacks running behind a 280-pound fullback, so expect lots of grinding between the tackles.
Ten starters return on defense, four of whom are sophomores, which excites Dantonio to no end. The defensive line is home to the most potential, but cornerback Mike Mickens is getting the preseason All-Big East recognition after a true freshman year in which he was repeatedly thrown at and responded with 14 knockdowns.
By all accounts, the young Bearcats will be a better team than the 2005 version. Unfortunately their record might not show it. They have four sure losses on the road and might not have the team to beat Pitt, USF or Rutgers, even though all three games are in Cincy. Combine their heavy schedule with their almost certain improvement, however, and the Bearcats could be the recipients of some very friendly lines to start the season.
Prediction: 3-10 SU, 8-4 ATS
Syracuse Orange (+750)
Greg Robinson’s first year as head coach at Syracuse wasn’t quite what Orange supporters had hoped for. The 1-10 record was the worst in school history, though backers may have been pleased by the team’s decent road efforts against Notre Dame and Louisville to close the season. The Orange covered the massive spreads in both games to raise their ATS record to a still-disappointing 4-7. They didn’t win a single game against a Big East opponent and their 41-17 loss to the Cardinals was their sole ATS victory.
Brian White is the new offensive co-ordinator, imported from Wisconsin. Last year’s offense topped 17 points just twice, so there’s lots of work to do. Senior quarterback Perry Patterson hopes to build on his strong spring showing, but needs protection from an offensive line that doesn’t look ready to offer it yet. Like the offensive line, the backfield sees a few new faces, none of whom has distinguished himself as a workhorse runner. At least the top two receivers return, challenged for playing time by JUCO transfer Taj Smith.
Sadly the defense isn’t looking that much stronger as a unit than the Orange offense. A linebacker corps of seniors, led by Kelvin Smith, will have to make up for inexperience on the defensive line and a lack of depth in the secondary.
Syracuse’s most winnable games in conference are at Cincy and at home to UConn. Beyond those two, a visit to Illinois and home games against Wyoming and Miami, Ohio are the Orange’s only shots at entering the ‘W’ column.
Prediction: 1-10 SU, 4-8 ATS