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New Orleans Bowl: Rice Owls vs. Troy Trojans

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  • New Orleans Bowl: Rice Owls vs. Troy Trojans

    College Bowl Record (2-0)
    +$1810


    Tonite:
    Rice Owls vs. Troy Trojans

    Line:
    Rice by 3

    My Play:Rice -3
    550 to win 500

    The facts
    - Rice finished the season on a six game winning streak including two wins over bowl teams (tulsa, east carolina).....In fact - Rice was 7-1 in their last games - coincidentally - the only 8 games in which QB Chase Clement started !
    - once Clement took the reins they looked like a different team
    - Clement was efficient (58% completions, 21 td vs 5 int) and did not make many mistakes...He did not qualify for the passing efficiency ratings since he did not play 75% of Rice's games (played 8/12 = 66%)...He hit the # of attempts qualification
    - Rice played a much tougher schedule based on Sagarin ratings and opp's win %
    - the only bowl team Troy beat was MTSU
    - Rice is +12 in turnover diff; Troy is -10 with a whopping 30 giveaways
    - Rice is playing in their first bowl game in 45 yrs and should have a motivational edge vs Troy who hit their season goal with a Sun Belt Championship
    - Rice has a great weapon at RB (Quinton Smith had 1092 yds rushing and 2nd on team in reception) and the best receiver nobody has heard of (Jarett Dillard 1176 yds 20 TDs....including a Td in 14 str games)

    Its not all roses
    - Rice D is bad; 114th in rushing yds, 109th in pass efficiency D...That is enough to limit this play to 5 hundy
    - Troy has a slight edge in special teams; Troy has an edge in punt returns and net punting...Rice weak in both areas; Neither team hits FGs with a ton of consistency
    - Rice has a knack for making games close; Good to watch - hard to lay pts....In fact the only time they were a fav they lost at Tulane....Beat SMU at a pk depending on the line you got
    - Rice as a great RB and WR but not much depth; Also QB Clement has a bit of a bum ankle; Time off should help
    - Troy displayed staying power at Fla St (lost by 7) and GT (lost by 15)


    Going with the team on a roll...from the better conference...with more motivation. Not a slam dunk.


    Prediction: Rice 31 Troy 20
    Last edited by Tinfish; 12-22-06, 07:52 PM.
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