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College Bowl Record (7-6)
+$1060 (1 game pending)
Bowl: Insight Bowl
Teams: Texas Tech vs. Minnesota
Line: TTech -8
My Play: Tech minus the eight & the over 63
Amount: 1100 to win 1000 on the side and 550 to win 500 on the over
Thoughts: * Texas Tech averages 31.5 ppg
* Texas Tech averages 363.2 ypg passing for 440.5 total ypg.
* TT QB Graham Harrell completed 67% of his passes for 4,110 yards and 36 TD's and 10 interceptions.
* 7 TT players had 20 or more catches and 9 players had one or more TD catch.
* TT RB Shannon Woods had 817 yards and 7 TD's, but averaged 6.1 ypc which I think is the most telling stat.
* TT defense only allowed 3.8 ypc, although they allowed almost 150 ypg rushing - that's skewed as teams tried rushing alot to control clock.
* TT defense only allowed 175.7 ypg passing.
* Keyunta Dawson & Brock Stratton will light things up against Minny defense.
* Minnesota averaged 27.9 ppg with 368.6 total ypg.
* Minny RB Amir Pinnix had 1,093 yards and 9 TD's on the year.
* Minny QB Brian Cupito completed 59.5% of his passes for 2,556 yards and 19 TD's and 10 int.
* Minnesota defense allowed 24.5 ppg and an ungodly 416.2 total ypg
* Minny defense can't stop the run or the pass (162.8 ypg rushing and 253.5 ypg passing allowed).
* Minnesota defense allowed a 47% conversion rate on 3rd down
* Minnesota hasn't been use to practicing in weather above 40 degrees outside, now they're in the 70's
* This quote I read from a Minny newspaper article "(Minnesota Coach Glen) Mason was pleased with Tuesday's practice despite his players spending much of Monday lounging by the pool."
Also today I had a conversation with a CTG member that I trust unconditionally with regards to Minnesota sports and his unpublished information and connections to players/coaches. Some nuggets from that conversation.
* Steve Shidell - Minnesota's starting left tackle broke his leg on Saturday in Minnesota in their final practice. Matt DeGeest will take his place in the starting lineup, but more than likely at RT and Joe Ainslie will move from RT to LT. From my second hand knowledge the Minnesota coaches consider this a HUGE loss and they're worried about how this change will play out having two raw linemen starting. Here's an article about the injury and about possible lineup changes.http://www.startribune.com/512/story/899374.html
* A Minnesota offensive coach said that they are confident "they will score against TT, but that they didn't feel good about the possibility of stopping the TT air attack."
* The coach went on to say, "TT's defense is a basic Y scheme that suits the Gophers zone blocking scheme to a T. If TT was to blitz more the MN o line would really struggle, but he said he doubts they'll blitz." Personally, I can wait to see how this plays out. Just need to find a place that has the NFL Network.
* The CTG member was saying his general impression is that Minnesota expects a shootout (who doesn't though).
* I was also told a prominent Minnesota offensive player didn't even think they they'd be able to win. I think this might be a good look into the mindset. Shouldn't really effect your capping of the game, but I found it interesting.
* This CTG member also asked one of the Minny coaches if he thought they would win, and said "The look (he) gave me wasn't real positive when I asked if he liked MN's chances."
So what does all this mean? Well most of what was told to me tonight just reinforced my own opinions about the game and made me feel a lot more confident with the play. Texas Tech will be able to pass all over the place on Minnesota. As I discussed with others today, the over will depend on if those are TD's or FG's. My belief is that they'll be TD's. With regards to the total, Texas Tech has horrible numbers in red zone defense, so you can expect Minnesota to put up some points as well. We all know that Minnesota has one of the worst pass defenses in the country and Texas Tech is one of the best passing offenses. Texas Tech defense overall is still better than Minnesota's and I trust TT will be able to score, more than I trust Cupito and the rest of Minnesota's offense.
Prediction: Texas Tech 52 Minnesota 27
+$1060 (1 game pending)
Bowl: Insight Bowl
Teams: Texas Tech vs. Minnesota
Line: TTech -8
My Play: Tech minus the eight & the over 63
Amount: 1100 to win 1000 on the side and 550 to win 500 on the over
Thoughts: * Texas Tech averages 31.5 ppg
* Texas Tech averages 363.2 ypg passing for 440.5 total ypg.
* TT QB Graham Harrell completed 67% of his passes for 4,110 yards and 36 TD's and 10 interceptions.
* 7 TT players had 20 or more catches and 9 players had one or more TD catch.
* TT RB Shannon Woods had 817 yards and 7 TD's, but averaged 6.1 ypc which I think is the most telling stat.
* TT defense only allowed 3.8 ypc, although they allowed almost 150 ypg rushing - that's skewed as teams tried rushing alot to control clock.
* TT defense only allowed 175.7 ypg passing.
* Keyunta Dawson & Brock Stratton will light things up against Minny defense.
* Minnesota averaged 27.9 ppg with 368.6 total ypg.
* Minny RB Amir Pinnix had 1,093 yards and 9 TD's on the year.
* Minny QB Brian Cupito completed 59.5% of his passes for 2,556 yards and 19 TD's and 10 int.
* Minnesota defense allowed 24.5 ppg and an ungodly 416.2 total ypg
* Minny defense can't stop the run or the pass (162.8 ypg rushing and 253.5 ypg passing allowed).
* Minnesota defense allowed a 47% conversion rate on 3rd down
* Minnesota hasn't been use to practicing in weather above 40 degrees outside, now they're in the 70's
* This quote I read from a Minny newspaper article "(Minnesota Coach Glen) Mason was pleased with Tuesday's practice despite his players spending much of Monday lounging by the pool."
Also today I had a conversation with a CTG member that I trust unconditionally with regards to Minnesota sports and his unpublished information and connections to players/coaches. Some nuggets from that conversation.
* Steve Shidell - Minnesota's starting left tackle broke his leg on Saturday in Minnesota in their final practice. Matt DeGeest will take his place in the starting lineup, but more than likely at RT and Joe Ainslie will move from RT to LT. From my second hand knowledge the Minnesota coaches consider this a HUGE loss and they're worried about how this change will play out having two raw linemen starting. Here's an article about the injury and about possible lineup changes.http://www.startribune.com/512/story/899374.html
* A Minnesota offensive coach said that they are confident "they will score against TT, but that they didn't feel good about the possibility of stopping the TT air attack."
* The coach went on to say, "TT's defense is a basic Y scheme that suits the Gophers zone blocking scheme to a T. If TT was to blitz more the MN o line would really struggle, but he said he doubts they'll blitz." Personally, I can wait to see how this plays out. Just need to find a place that has the NFL Network.
* The CTG member was saying his general impression is that Minnesota expects a shootout (who doesn't though).
* I was also told a prominent Minnesota offensive player didn't even think they they'd be able to win. I think this might be a good look into the mindset. Shouldn't really effect your capping of the game, but I found it interesting.
* This CTG member also asked one of the Minny coaches if he thought they would win, and said "The look (he) gave me wasn't real positive when I asked if he liked MN's chances."
So what does all this mean? Well most of what was told to me tonight just reinforced my own opinions about the game and made me feel a lot more confident with the play. Texas Tech will be able to pass all over the place on Minnesota. As I discussed with others today, the over will depend on if those are TD's or FG's. My belief is that they'll be TD's. With regards to the total, Texas Tech has horrible numbers in red zone defense, so you can expect Minnesota to put up some points as well. We all know that Minnesota has one of the worst pass defenses in the country and Texas Tech is one of the best passing offenses. Texas Tech defense overall is still better than Minnesota's and I trust TT will be able to score, more than I trust Cupito and the rest of Minnesota's offense.
Prediction: Texas Tech 52 Minnesota 27