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Mich. State(-15.0) versus Indiana
Michigan State took advantage of an Iowa flat spot and a +4 in turnover margin to upset the Hawkeyes 20-10 last week. That win actually sets the Spartans up in a solid 63-25-1 ATS home favorite momentum situation in this game and I see no reason why they should win comfortably against a struggling Hoosiers squad that’s lost by 14 points or more in all 4 of their Division 1A games. Former Notre Dame quarterback Matt LoVecchio could put up pretty solid numbers in this game after facing a schedule of good pass defenses. In 4 Division 1A games, LoVecchio has averaged only 5.0 yards per pass play, but he’s faced teams that combine to allow only 4.8 yppp, so he’s actually been better than average so far this year. Michigan State is only a bit better than average against the pass (5.4 yppp allowed to teams that average 5.7 yppp), so Indiana should be able to throw at an average clip today. However, Indiana has a horrible rushing attack (3.6 yards per rushing play against teams that allow 4.4 yprp) and they have no prayer running against the Spartans’ stout defensive front that has yielded just 3.2 yprp (to teams that average 4.3 yprp on offense). While Indiana’s offense should be held under 20 points again, the Spartans’ attack will ride the arm of quarterback Jeff Smoker (6.5 yppp against teams that allow 5.8 yppp) and should approach 40 points. Smoker should have a big day throwing against an Indiana defense that has permitted 7.8 yppp this year (to teams that average 6.7 yppp on offense). Indiana defends the run at a decent level (4.6 yprp allowed to teams that average 4.6 yprp) and Michigan State isn’t much of a running team (4.1 yprp against teams that allow 4.4 yprp), but I expect plenty of big plays up top for the Spartans.
Michigan State took advantage of an Iowa flat spot and a +4 in turnover margin to upset the Hawkeyes 20-10 last week. That win actually sets the Spartans up in a solid 63-25-1 ATS home favorite momentum situation in this game and I see no reason why they should win comfortably against a struggling Hoosiers squad that’s lost by 14 points or more in all 4 of their Division 1A games. Former Notre Dame quarterback Matt LoVecchio could put up pretty solid numbers in this game after facing a schedule of good pass defenses. In 4 Division 1A games, LoVecchio has averaged only 5.0 yards per pass play, but he’s faced teams that combine to allow only 4.8 yppp, so he’s actually been better than average so far this year. Michigan State is only a bit better than average against the pass (5.4 yppp allowed to teams that average 5.7 yppp), so Indiana should be able to throw at an average clip today. However, Indiana has a horrible rushing attack (3.6 yards per rushing play against teams that allow 4.4 yprp) and they have no prayer running against the Spartans’ stout defensive front that has yielded just 3.2 yprp (to teams that average 4.3 yprp on offense). While Indiana’s offense should be held under 20 points again, the Spartans’ attack will ride the arm of quarterback Jeff Smoker (6.5 yppp against teams that allow 5.8 yppp) and should approach 40 points. Smoker should have a big day throwing against an Indiana defense that has permitted 7.8 yppp this year (to teams that average 6.7 yppp on offense). Indiana defends the run at a decent level (4.6 yprp allowed to teams that average 4.6 yprp) and Michigan State isn’t much of a running team (4.1 yprp against teams that allow 4.4 yprp), but I expect plenty of big plays up top for the Spartans.