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USC (-11.0) @ Arizona State
USC’s 31-34 loss as a 13 ˝ point road favorite at Cal is not a good omen for them this week, as they qualify in a negative 17-42-1 ATS situation that plays against teams that are favored after a high-scoring loss as a road favorite. The line on this game also appears to be to high, as USC has not been nearly as good defensively as it appeared they’d be after shutting down Auburn in their opener. For the season, the Trojans have allowed 4.8 yards per play to teams that average a combined 5.0 yppl on offense and they’ve been a bit worse than average on defense since their opening win (they’ve allowed 5.4 yppl in their last 3 games to teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense). Arizona State’s offense is not nearly as good as most people thought it would be, but they are better than they appear to be. The Sun Devils have averaged just 4.5 yppl in their 3 Division 1A games, but they’ve faced a schedule of teams that combines to allow only 4.4 yppl on defense and they appear to capable of taking advantage of USC’s defensive weaknesses and scoring a decent number of points in this game. The Sun Devils’ defense has actually played pretty well, giving up 4.7 yppl to teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense and they should keep USC’s good offense (5.5 yppl against teams that allow 4.9 yppl on defense) from scoring enough points to cover the double-digit number. Overall, my mathematical model favors USC by only 6 ˝ points in this game and the situation favors the Sun Devils as well.
USC’s 31-34 loss as a 13 ˝ point road favorite at Cal is not a good omen for them this week, as they qualify in a negative 17-42-1 ATS situation that plays against teams that are favored after a high-scoring loss as a road favorite. The line on this game also appears to be to high, as USC has not been nearly as good defensively as it appeared they’d be after shutting down Auburn in their opener. For the season, the Trojans have allowed 4.8 yards per play to teams that average a combined 5.0 yppl on offense and they’ve been a bit worse than average on defense since their opening win (they’ve allowed 5.4 yppl in their last 3 games to teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense). Arizona State’s offense is not nearly as good as most people thought it would be, but they are better than they appear to be. The Sun Devils have averaged just 4.5 yppl in their 3 Division 1A games, but they’ve faced a schedule of teams that combines to allow only 4.4 yppl on defense and they appear to capable of taking advantage of USC’s defensive weaknesses and scoring a decent number of points in this game. The Sun Devils’ defense has actually played pretty well, giving up 4.7 yppl to teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense and they should keep USC’s good offense (5.5 yppl against teams that allow 4.9 yppl on defense) from scoring enough points to cover the double-digit number. Overall, my mathematical model favors USC by only 6 ˝ points in this game and the situation favors the Sun Devils as well.