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Washington (-1.0) @ UCLA
UCLA’s offense finally had a decent game, as they averaged a respectable 5.1 yards per play against a very good San Diego State defense. However, for the season the Bruins have averaged only 4.0 yppl against teams that allow a combined 4.7 yppl on defense. Washington has a defense that has played only slightly better than average this season (4.1 yppl allowed to a schedule of bad offensive teams that combine to average 4.2 yppl for the season), so the Bruins certainly have a chance to mount a few drives in this game, especially if they play at the level they played last week, in which quarterback Drew Olsen looked much more comfortable (7.4 yards per pass play). UCLA has been winning on the strength of their defense, which has yielded just 4.1 yppl to teams that average 4.7 yppl on offense, and that unit should be able to contain an overrated Washington offense that has averaged a mediocre 5.3 yppl this season (against teams that allow a combined 5.1 yppl on defense). Most of the Huskies’ offense comes through the air, but UCLA is particularly good at defending the pass (4.5 yards per pass play allowed to teams that average 5.5 yppp) so I certainly don’t expect Washington to score many points either. My math model favors the Bruins by ½ a point in this game, and I’ll lean slightly with UCLA at home based on that projection.
UCLA’s offense finally had a decent game, as they averaged a respectable 5.1 yards per play against a very good San Diego State defense. However, for the season the Bruins have averaged only 4.0 yppl against teams that allow a combined 4.7 yppl on defense. Washington has a defense that has played only slightly better than average this season (4.1 yppl allowed to a schedule of bad offensive teams that combine to average 4.2 yppl for the season), so the Bruins certainly have a chance to mount a few drives in this game, especially if they play at the level they played last week, in which quarterback Drew Olsen looked much more comfortable (7.4 yards per pass play). UCLA has been winning on the strength of their defense, which has yielded just 4.1 yppl to teams that average 4.7 yppl on offense, and that unit should be able to contain an overrated Washington offense that has averaged a mediocre 5.3 yppl this season (against teams that allow a combined 5.1 yppl on defense). Most of the Huskies’ offense comes through the air, but UCLA is particularly good at defending the pass (4.5 yards per pass play allowed to teams that average 5.5 yppp) so I certainly don’t expect Washington to score many points either. My math model favors the Bruins by ½ a point in this game, and I’ll lean slightly with UCLA at home based on that projection.