Tweet
Pittsburgh (-7.0) versus Cleveland
This is a tough game to pick, as my mathematical model favors Pittsburgh while the situational analysis favors Cleveland. The Steelers weren’t as bad as the 13-30 loss to the Titans indicates, as they were out-gained by only an average of 5.0 yards per play to 5.1 yppl for Tennessee. For the season, the Steelers have been one of the league’s best teams statistically, as they have averaged 5.3 yppl on offense (against teams that allow just 4.9 yppl on defense) while giving up only 4.3 yppl on defense (to teams that average a combined 5.0 yppl on offense). Cleveland, meanwhile, has been sub-par on offense (4.4 yppl against teams that allow 4.7 yppl) and just average defensively (5.0 yppl against teams that average a combined 5.0 yppl on offense). Overall, my mathematical model favors Pittsburgh by 11 points in this game. The problem with backing the Steelers, however, is a couple of very negative situations that they apply to. The 30 points that Pittsburgh allowed last week is not a good indicator for them this week, as they apply to a negative 90-172-5 ATS situation that plays against home teams that gave up a lot of points last week (there’s more to the angle than that, but that’s the gist of it). The Steelers also apply to a negative 53-117-6 ATS situation and the record is 7-22 ATS if both angles apply against the same team. The negative situation is worth 4 ½ points, so combining the mathematical prediction with the situational analysis would make the Steelers a 6 ½ point choice in this game, which is right on the number. My mathematical model has been very good, so I suppose I’d prefer Pittsburgh in this game if I had to make a choice.
This is a tough game to pick, as my mathematical model favors Pittsburgh while the situational analysis favors Cleveland. The Steelers weren’t as bad as the 13-30 loss to the Titans indicates, as they were out-gained by only an average of 5.0 yards per play to 5.1 yppl for Tennessee. For the season, the Steelers have been one of the league’s best teams statistically, as they have averaged 5.3 yppl on offense (against teams that allow just 4.9 yppl on defense) while giving up only 4.3 yppl on defense (to teams that average a combined 5.0 yppl on offense). Cleveland, meanwhile, has been sub-par on offense (4.4 yppl against teams that allow 4.7 yppl) and just average defensively (5.0 yppl against teams that average a combined 5.0 yppl on offense). Overall, my mathematical model favors Pittsburgh by 11 points in this game. The problem with backing the Steelers, however, is a couple of very negative situations that they apply to. The 30 points that Pittsburgh allowed last week is not a good indicator for them this week, as they apply to a negative 90-172-5 ATS situation that plays against home teams that gave up a lot of points last week (there’s more to the angle than that, but that’s the gist of it). The Steelers also apply to a negative 53-117-6 ATS situation and the record is 7-22 ATS if both angles apply against the same team. The negative situation is worth 4 ½ points, so combining the mathematical prediction with the situational analysis would make the Steelers a 6 ½ point choice in this game, which is right on the number. My mathematical model has been very good, so I suppose I’d prefer Pittsburgh in this game if I had to make a choice.