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Maryland (-27.0) versus Duke
Maryland is 11-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or more under coach Ralph Friedgen and I’ll lean with the Terrapins despite a decent 68-28-1 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation that favors Duke in this game. Duke is a bit better offensively since Mike Schneider replaced Adam Smith at quarterback, but they are still a poor defensive team (4.6 yards per play with Schneider against teams that allow 5.2 yppl on defense) and I don’t see them having much success at all against a good Maryland stop unit that’s given up only 4.5 yppl this season (to teams that average 5.1 yppl on defense). The Terrapins haven’t been that good offensively this year (5.2 yppl against teams that allow a combined 5.0 yppl on defense), but they’ll run all over a soft Blue Devils’ defensive front that’s surrendered 5.8 yards per rushing play to Division 1A teams that combine to average 4.8 yprp on offense. Scott McBrien is a better than average quarterback and he’ll compliment the rushing attack with a pretty good outing against a mediocre Duke secondary (6.2 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.4 yppp on offense). Overall, my math model favors Maryland by 24 ½ points, but their history of success running up the score is hard to ignore, as they’ve won by an average score of 49-10 in 5 home games when favored by 20 points or more (they were favored by an average of 25 ½ points in those games).
Maryland is 11-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or more under coach Ralph Friedgen and I’ll lean with the Terrapins despite a decent 68-28-1 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation that favors Duke in this game. Duke is a bit better offensively since Mike Schneider replaced Adam Smith at quarterback, but they are still a poor defensive team (4.6 yards per play with Schneider against teams that allow 5.2 yppl on defense) and I don’t see them having much success at all against a good Maryland stop unit that’s given up only 4.5 yppl this season (to teams that average 5.1 yppl on defense). The Terrapins haven’t been that good offensively this year (5.2 yppl against teams that allow a combined 5.0 yppl on defense), but they’ll run all over a soft Blue Devils’ defensive front that’s surrendered 5.8 yards per rushing play to Division 1A teams that combine to average 4.8 yprp on offense. Scott McBrien is a better than average quarterback and he’ll compliment the rushing attack with a pretty good outing against a mediocre Duke secondary (6.2 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.4 yppp on offense). Overall, my math model favors Maryland by 24 ½ points, but their history of success running up the score is hard to ignore, as they’ve won by an average score of 49-10 in 5 home games when favored by 20 points or more (they were favored by an average of 25 ½ points in those games).