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Texas Tech (-16.0) versus Iowa St.
Texas Tech has the best offense in the nation right now, as they have averaged an incredible 591 total yards per game at 7.6 yards per play (against teams that allow 5.8 yppl on defense). The Red Raiders average 59 pass plays per game and they won’t be slowed today by a horrible Iowa State secondary that’s surrendered 9.0 yards per pass play (to teams that combine to average 7.0 yppp on offense) and just gave up 414 yards on 39 passes to Oklahoma last week. Iowa State does have a chance to cover the number, however, as their underrated offense (5.0 yppl against teams that combine to allow 4.7 yppl on defense) should also keep the scoreboard operator busy against a Texas Tech defense that has permitted 6.2 yppl this season (to teams that average 5.4 yppl on offense). I have strong situations favoring each side in this game, but I’ll lean with a Red Raiders squad that has covered 8 of their last 9 as a home favorite and is 13-4 ATS under coach Leach in that role. The Over looks like a decent play here, as the oddsmakers can’t make a total high enough for this team. The Red Raiders have gone Over in every game this season and have averaged a total combined score of 78 points while Iowa State has gone Over in all but 1 game and has averaged a combined score of 57 points, which is 7 points more than the national average of 50 points. If Texas Tech averages 78 total points and they’re facing a team that averages 7 more points than the national average, then the total score should be around 85 points. My math model validates that number as it too projects 85 total points.
Texas Tech has the best offense in the nation right now, as they have averaged an incredible 591 total yards per game at 7.6 yards per play (against teams that allow 5.8 yppl on defense). The Red Raiders average 59 pass plays per game and they won’t be slowed today by a horrible Iowa State secondary that’s surrendered 9.0 yards per pass play (to teams that combine to average 7.0 yppp on offense) and just gave up 414 yards on 39 passes to Oklahoma last week. Iowa State does have a chance to cover the number, however, as their underrated offense (5.0 yppl against teams that combine to allow 4.7 yppl on defense) should also keep the scoreboard operator busy against a Texas Tech defense that has permitted 6.2 yppl this season (to teams that average 5.4 yppl on offense). I have strong situations favoring each side in this game, but I’ll lean with a Red Raiders squad that has covered 8 of their last 9 as a home favorite and is 13-4 ATS under coach Leach in that role. The Over looks like a decent play here, as the oddsmakers can’t make a total high enough for this team. The Red Raiders have gone Over in every game this season and have averaged a total combined score of 78 points while Iowa State has gone Over in all but 1 game and has averaged a combined score of 57 points, which is 7 points more than the national average of 50 points. If Texas Tech averages 78 total points and they’re facing a team that averages 7 more points than the national average, then the total score should be around 85 points. My math model validates that number as it too projects 85 total points.