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Miss St. (-4.5) versus Memphis
Mississippi State may have turned the corner with last week’s 30-21 win over Vanderbilt and I’ll lean with the Bulldogs in this game on the basis of a negative situation applying to Memphis. The Tigers lost 10-24 in a mistake filled game as a 9 point home favorite against UAB and it’s a bad sign when a team scores 10 points or less as a home favorite of 3 points or more. In fact, Memphis applies in a negative 33-76-2 ATS situation that is based on that premise. The Tigers’ mediocre offense (5.6 yards per play against teams that allow 5.6 yppl) should bounce back this week against a poor Mississippi State defense (6.2 yppl against teams that average 5.5 yppl on offense), but the Bulldogs have improved on that side of the ball in recent weeks (5.6 yppl against LSU and Vandy – who combine to average 5.2 yppl on offense for the season). Mississippi State’s potent offense (5.8 yppl against teams that allow a combined 5.1 yppl on defense) has the advantage against a better than average Memphis defense (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense), so I’ll look for them to outscore the Tigers. Overall, my math model favors Miss State by just 3 ½ points, but the situation applying against Memphis is strong enough to get me leaning with the Bulldogs.
Mississippi State may have turned the corner with last week’s 30-21 win over Vanderbilt and I’ll lean with the Bulldogs in this game on the basis of a negative situation applying to Memphis. The Tigers lost 10-24 in a mistake filled game as a 9 point home favorite against UAB and it’s a bad sign when a team scores 10 points or less as a home favorite of 3 points or more. In fact, Memphis applies in a negative 33-76-2 ATS situation that is based on that premise. The Tigers’ mediocre offense (5.6 yards per play against teams that allow 5.6 yppl) should bounce back this week against a poor Mississippi State defense (6.2 yppl against teams that average 5.5 yppl on offense), but the Bulldogs have improved on that side of the ball in recent weeks (5.6 yppl against LSU and Vandy – who combine to average 5.2 yppl on offense for the season). Mississippi State’s potent offense (5.8 yppl against teams that allow a combined 5.1 yppl on defense) has the advantage against a better than average Memphis defense (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense), so I’ll look for them to outscore the Tigers. Overall, my math model favors Miss State by just 3 ½ points, but the situation applying against Memphis is strong enough to get me leaning with the Bulldogs.