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Bowling Green (-9.0) @ Western Michigan
Western Michigan gained some needed confidence the last two weeks with back-to-back spread wins as road favorites at Ohio and at Eastern Michigan and I’ll lean with them to cover the number as a home underdog based on the fact that conference home underdogs (or picks) are a solid 111-70-5 ATS if they covered the spread as a road favorite in their previous game. The record is an even better 81-47-3 ATS if the home team has the revenge motive on their side. The Broncos have a good enough offense (5.4 yards per play against Division 1A teams that combine to allow 5.4 yppl on defense) to score a good number of points at home against a mediocre Bowling Green defense (4.7 yppl against D-1A teams that average 4.8 yppl on offense). The task for the Broncos will be slowing down a good Falcons’ attack (5.3 yppl against teams that allow 4.7 yppl) with a solid defense that’s yielded 5.0 yppl to teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense. Overall, my mathematical model favors Bowling Green by 8 ½ points, which is right around the number, but the situation favors Western Michigan as a home underdog.
Western Michigan gained some needed confidence the last two weeks with back-to-back spread wins as road favorites at Ohio and at Eastern Michigan and I’ll lean with them to cover the number as a home underdog based on the fact that conference home underdogs (or picks) are a solid 111-70-5 ATS if they covered the spread as a road favorite in their previous game. The record is an even better 81-47-3 ATS if the home team has the revenge motive on their side. The Broncos have a good enough offense (5.4 yards per play against Division 1A teams that combine to allow 5.4 yppl on defense) to score a good number of points at home against a mediocre Bowling Green defense (4.7 yppl against D-1A teams that average 4.8 yppl on offense). The task for the Broncos will be slowing down a good Falcons’ attack (5.3 yppl against teams that allow 4.7 yppl) with a solid defense that’s yielded 5.0 yppl to teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense. Overall, my mathematical model favors Bowling Green by 8 ½ points, which is right around the number, but the situation favors Western Michigan as a home underdog.