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USC (-21.0) versus Stanford
USC bounced back from their loss at Cal with a convincing 37-17 win at Arizona State and they ought to have no problem winning this game comfortably as well. However, Stanford is a good defensive team that’s allowed just 4.3 yards per play (to teams that combine to average 4.8 yppl on offense), so it may not be so easy to cover a 3 touchdown spread. Of course Stanford will probably have to score a couple of times and there is no guarantee of that given how anemic their offense has been in their first 3 games (4.2 yppl against teams that allow 5.1 yppl on defense). The Cardinal have been okay running the football (4.3 yards per rushing play against teams that allow an average of 4.2 yprp on defense), but freshman quarterback Trent Edwards has managed to throw for just 4.2 yards per pass play (against teams that allow a combined 6.2 yppp). Edwards isn’t likely to take full advantage of a mediocre USC secondary (5.5 yppp against teams that average 5.5 yppp on offense) and the Cardinal rushing attack will be slowed by a good Trojans’ defensive front that has given up just 3.5 yprp (to teams that average 4.1 yprp on offense). Overall, my math model favors USC by just 19 ½ points, so I’ll lean a bit with Stanford.
USC bounced back from their loss at Cal with a convincing 37-17 win at Arizona State and they ought to have no problem winning this game comfortably as well. However, Stanford is a good defensive team that’s allowed just 4.3 yards per play (to teams that combine to average 4.8 yppl on offense), so it may not be so easy to cover a 3 touchdown spread. Of course Stanford will probably have to score a couple of times and there is no guarantee of that given how anemic their offense has been in their first 3 games (4.2 yppl against teams that allow 5.1 yppl on defense). The Cardinal have been okay running the football (4.3 yards per rushing play against teams that allow an average of 4.2 yprp on defense), but freshman quarterback Trent Edwards has managed to throw for just 4.2 yards per pass play (against teams that allow a combined 6.2 yppp). Edwards isn’t likely to take full advantage of a mediocre USC secondary (5.5 yppp against teams that average 5.5 yppp on offense) and the Cardinal rushing attack will be slowed by a good Trojans’ defensive front that has given up just 3.5 yprp (to teams that average 4.1 yprp on offense). Overall, my math model favors USC by just 19 ½ points, so I’ll lean a bit with Stanford.