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Tenessee (-10.0) versus Houston
The Titans are not very trustworthy as a big home favorite, sporting a record of just 5-18 ATS when laying more than 5 points as the host, including 0-9 ATS if facing a team with a win percentage of greater than .333 and 0-6 ATS after a straight up loss. Tennessee’s inability to run the football also makes them a bad bet as a big favorite, as teams that average less than 3.5 ypr are only 14-36-1 ATS when laying more than 7 points at home (from game 4 on). Houston is certainly capable of hanging tough in this game, as the Texans have improved considerably on offense this season (4.8 yards per play against teams that allow a combined 5.2 yppl on defense) and are good enough defending the run (4.2 ypr allowed to teams that average 4.3 ypr on offense) to keep the Titans from stretching out the lead if they get up by a few scores. Houston has had trouble defending the pass (7.1 yards per pass play allowed to teams that average a combined 6.2 yppp on offense), so Steve McNair (7.0 yppp against teams that allow 5.9 yppp) should have plenty of success throwing the football in this game. However, Tennessee’s offense is just average overall (5.2 yards per play against teams that allow 5.1 yppl) and they’re likely to try to establish the rushing attack in a game that they are expected to win rather easily. The Titans are nothing special on defense, allowing 5.2 yppl to teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense, so Houston ought to be able to score enough points to stay within the big number, especially given the Titans’ poor history as a big favorite.
The Titans are not very trustworthy as a big home favorite, sporting a record of just 5-18 ATS when laying more than 5 points as the host, including 0-9 ATS if facing a team with a win percentage of greater than .333 and 0-6 ATS after a straight up loss. Tennessee’s inability to run the football also makes them a bad bet as a big favorite, as teams that average less than 3.5 ypr are only 14-36-1 ATS when laying more than 7 points at home (from game 4 on). Houston is certainly capable of hanging tough in this game, as the Texans have improved considerably on offense this season (4.8 yards per play against teams that allow a combined 5.2 yppl on defense) and are good enough defending the run (4.2 ypr allowed to teams that average 4.3 ypr on offense) to keep the Titans from stretching out the lead if they get up by a few scores. Houston has had trouble defending the pass (7.1 yards per pass play allowed to teams that average a combined 6.2 yppp on offense), so Steve McNair (7.0 yppp against teams that allow 5.9 yppp) should have plenty of success throwing the football in this game. However, Tennessee’s offense is just average overall (5.2 yards per play against teams that allow 5.1 yppl) and they’re likely to try to establish the rushing attack in a game that they are expected to win rather easily. The Titans are nothing special on defense, allowing 5.2 yppl to teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense, so Houston ought to be able to score enough points to stay within the big number, especially given the Titans’ poor history as a big favorite.