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Seattle (-3.5) versus San Francisco
The 49ers are only 12-27-2 ATS on the road in recent years (0-1-1 ATS this season), including just 1-12-1 ATS when visiting a team with a win percentage of greater than .600, but I would still rather back them as an underdog against the Seahawks. Seattle is a solid team with an average offense (5.2 yards per play against teams that allow an average of 5.2 yppl on defense) and a better than average defense (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that combine to average 5.1 yppl on offense), but they aren’t really better than a 49ers squad that is a few plays from being 4-1 instead of 2-3. San Francisco is sub-par offensively, averaging 5.1 yppl against teams that allow a combined 5.4 yppl on defense, but the Niners have a good defense that’s permitted just 4.5 yppl to teams that average 4.9 yppl on offense for the season. So, these two teams are about the same from the line of scrimmage but I give San Francisco a 1 ½ point edge in special teams and my math model calls this game even. While San Francisco’s poor road history is worth considering, it’s too early to tell if that trend will continue under new coach Erickson and I’d prefer to side with my mathematical model, which has been very reliable over the years.
The 49ers are only 12-27-2 ATS on the road in recent years (0-1-1 ATS this season), including just 1-12-1 ATS when visiting a team with a win percentage of greater than .600, but I would still rather back them as an underdog against the Seahawks. Seattle is a solid team with an average offense (5.2 yards per play against teams that allow an average of 5.2 yppl on defense) and a better than average defense (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that combine to average 5.1 yppl on offense), but they aren’t really better than a 49ers squad that is a few plays from being 4-1 instead of 2-3. San Francisco is sub-par offensively, averaging 5.1 yppl against teams that allow a combined 5.4 yppl on defense, but the Niners have a good defense that’s permitted just 4.5 yppl to teams that average 4.9 yppl on offense for the season. So, these two teams are about the same from the line of scrimmage but I give San Francisco a 1 ½ point edge in special teams and my math model calls this game even. While San Francisco’s poor road history is worth considering, it’s too early to tell if that trend will continue under new coach Erickson and I’d prefer to side with my mathematical model, which has been very reliable over the years.