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Boston College (-3.5) @ Syracuse
Syracuse has played two good teams and they lost both of them straight up and to the pointspread, dropping a 20-30 game against Louisville as a 3 point home favorite and getting drilled 7-51 at Virginia Tech last week. The Orangemen have a good offense (5.8 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 5.4 yppl on defense) because of an outstanding rushing attack (5.5 yards per rushing play against teams that allow 4.4 yprp on defense) that is led by running back Walter Reyes (721 yards at 6.7 ypr). Reyes should do a good job of running the ball against a mediocre Boston College run defense (4.2 yprp allowed to teams that average a combined 4.3 yprp on offense), but sub-par quarterback R.J. Anderson (6.3 yards per pass play against teams that allow 6.8 yppp) will not have success throwing into a good Eagles’ secondary that has yielded just 4.8 yppp this season (to teams that average 6.1 yppp on offense). Syracuse should put up a decent number of points, but their lack of a pass attack will make it tough for them to keep up with an Eagles’ attack that should run and pass with success. Boston College is better than average running and passing and they’ve averaged 5.6 yppl this season (against teams that allow an average of 5.2 yppl on defense). I rate Syracuse a bit below average defending both the run and the pass, so Boston College should have pretty good success moving the ball. Overall, my math model favors Boston College by 5 ˝ points and the Eagles apply to a solid 290-169-9 ATS statistical match-up indicator. Syracuse does play better at home (11-4-1 ATS here recently), but Boston College is now 16-1 ATS when favored against a conference foe (12-0 ATS more recently) and should get the victory in this game.
My prediction?: BC 31 Syracuse 24
Syracuse has played two good teams and they lost both of them straight up and to the pointspread, dropping a 20-30 game against Louisville as a 3 point home favorite and getting drilled 7-51 at Virginia Tech last week. The Orangemen have a good offense (5.8 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 5.4 yppl on defense) because of an outstanding rushing attack (5.5 yards per rushing play against teams that allow 4.4 yprp on defense) that is led by running back Walter Reyes (721 yards at 6.7 ypr). Reyes should do a good job of running the ball against a mediocre Boston College run defense (4.2 yprp allowed to teams that average a combined 4.3 yprp on offense), but sub-par quarterback R.J. Anderson (6.3 yards per pass play against teams that allow 6.8 yppp) will not have success throwing into a good Eagles’ secondary that has yielded just 4.8 yppp this season (to teams that average 6.1 yppp on offense). Syracuse should put up a decent number of points, but their lack of a pass attack will make it tough for them to keep up with an Eagles’ attack that should run and pass with success. Boston College is better than average running and passing and they’ve averaged 5.6 yppl this season (against teams that allow an average of 5.2 yppl on defense). I rate Syracuse a bit below average defending both the run and the pass, so Boston College should have pretty good success moving the ball. Overall, my math model favors Boston College by 5 ˝ points and the Eagles apply to a solid 290-169-9 ATS statistical match-up indicator. Syracuse does play better at home (11-4-1 ATS here recently), but Boston College is now 16-1 ATS when favored against a conference foe (12-0 ATS more recently) and should get the victory in this game.
My prediction?: BC 31 Syracuse 24