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Auburn (-21.0) versus Mississippi St.
Auburn has started to play the way they were expected to play prior to starting the season with losses to USC and Georgia Tech, in which their offense didn’t score a single touchdown. In their 3 Division 1A games since then, the Tigers have been better than average offensively (5.5 yards per play against teams that allow a combined 5.2 yppl on defense) and they should score a ton of points against a porous Bulldogs’ defense that has allowed 6.2 yppl this season (to teams that average 5.6 yppl on offense). Auburn’s defense has been good all season long, as they’ve allowed just 4.7 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.5 yppl on offense, and they should do a pretty good job containing a good Miss State attack that’s averaged 5.7 yppl this season (against teams that allow 5.1 yppl on defense). Overall, my math model favors Auburn by only 17 points, but it would favor them by 21 points if you throw out their first 2 games. So, the line seems to be reflecting their current form and there is no line value at all. However, the Tigers qualify in a 51-19-1 ATS home momentum situation and a 180-85-7 ATS statistical match-up indicator, so the situation certainly favors Auburn here. Mississippi State is just 2-6 ATS on the road since last season (0-2 ATS this year) and lost 6-41 to LSU, the only other really good team that they’ve faced.
My predeiction?: Auburn 45 Mississippi St. 10
Auburn has started to play the way they were expected to play prior to starting the season with losses to USC and Georgia Tech, in which their offense didn’t score a single touchdown. In their 3 Division 1A games since then, the Tigers have been better than average offensively (5.5 yards per play against teams that allow a combined 5.2 yppl on defense) and they should score a ton of points against a porous Bulldogs’ defense that has allowed 6.2 yppl this season (to teams that average 5.6 yppl on offense). Auburn’s defense has been good all season long, as they’ve allowed just 4.7 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.5 yppl on offense, and they should do a pretty good job containing a good Miss State attack that’s averaged 5.7 yppl this season (against teams that allow 5.1 yppl on defense). Overall, my math model favors Auburn by only 17 points, but it would favor them by 21 points if you throw out their first 2 games. So, the line seems to be reflecting their current form and there is no line value at all. However, the Tigers qualify in a 51-19-1 ATS home momentum situation and a 180-85-7 ATS statistical match-up indicator, so the situation certainly favors Auburn here. Mississippi State is just 2-6 ATS on the road since last season (0-2 ATS this year) and lost 6-41 to LSU, the only other really good team that they’ve faced.
My predeiction?: Auburn 45 Mississippi St. 10