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Seattle (-1.5) @ Cincinatti
Seattle has played pretty well offensively and very good defensively en route to their 5-1 record and I’ll call for them to get another win today against an improved Bengals’ team that isn’t as good as the Seahawks on either side of the ball or on special teams. Seattle has averaged 5.3 yards per play on offense (against a schedule of teams that combines to allow 5.2 yppl on defense) and that unit should perform pretty well in this game against a Bengals’ stop unit that has surrendered 5.1 yppl to teams that combine to average only 4.9 yppl on offense for the season. Cincinnati’s poor rushing attack (2.8 ypr against teams that allow 4.2 ypr) has put a lot of pressure on quarterback Jon Kitna, who responded by averaging a solid 6.1 yards per pass play despite facing teams that combine to allow only 5.3 yppp on defense. Overall, the Bengals are a bit worse than average offensively (4.7 yppl against teams that allow 4.8 yppl) and they’ll have a tough time moving the ball with consistency against a Ray Rhodes defense that has given up only 4.5 yppl (to teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense) and is capable of stopping the Bengals pass attack with a secondary that has yielded only 5.0 yppp this season (to teams that average a combined 5.8 yppp on offense). Seattle qualifies in a very good 174-94-7 ATS statistical match-up indicator while Cincinnati applies to an 81-33-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation. Those two angles are 3-3 when they apply to the same game, so I’ll just go with the better team to get the win in this game.
I like Seattle big in this one. Seattle by 10
Seattle has played pretty well offensively and very good defensively en route to their 5-1 record and I’ll call for them to get another win today against an improved Bengals’ team that isn’t as good as the Seahawks on either side of the ball or on special teams. Seattle has averaged 5.3 yards per play on offense (against a schedule of teams that combines to allow 5.2 yppl on defense) and that unit should perform pretty well in this game against a Bengals’ stop unit that has surrendered 5.1 yppl to teams that combine to average only 4.9 yppl on offense for the season. Cincinnati’s poor rushing attack (2.8 ypr against teams that allow 4.2 ypr) has put a lot of pressure on quarterback Jon Kitna, who responded by averaging a solid 6.1 yards per pass play despite facing teams that combine to allow only 5.3 yppp on defense. Overall, the Bengals are a bit worse than average offensively (4.7 yppl against teams that allow 4.8 yppl) and they’ll have a tough time moving the ball with consistency against a Ray Rhodes defense that has given up only 4.5 yppl (to teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense) and is capable of stopping the Bengals pass attack with a secondary that has yielded only 5.0 yppp this season (to teams that average a combined 5.8 yppp on offense). Seattle qualifies in a very good 174-94-7 ATS statistical match-up indicator while Cincinnati applies to an 81-33-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation. Those two angles are 3-3 when they apply to the same game, so I’ll just go with the better team to get the win in this game.
I like Seattle big in this one. Seattle by 10