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Detroit (+3.0) @ Chicago
The Lions have lost 17 straight road games, but I’ll give them a decent shot at beating a bad Bears team whose offense is actually worse without Kordell Stewart’s running (211 yards at 5.0). Stewart is probable but Chris Chandler has been named the starter and I don’t see him being any better throwing the ball after his poor performance last week (3.4 yards per pass play and 2 picks). The Bears may also be without leading rusher Anthony Thomas (397 yards at 5.5 ypr) and Chicago managed only 87 rushing yards at 3.1 ypr last week with Thomas and Stewart both out. The Bears can’t run and the Bears can’t throw (3.9 yards per pass play for the season against teams that combine to allow 5.7 yppp on defense), so I don’t see them taking advantage of an only slightly worse than average Lions’ defense (5.6 yards per play allowed to teams that average 5.5 yppl on offense). Detroit’s offense isn’t too good either (4.4 yppl against teams that allow 4.9 yppl), but it’s better than Chicago’s offense and the Bears’ defense has been nothing special this year (allowing 5.5 yppl to teams that average a combined 5.5 yppl on offense). Detroit hasn’t won since opening day, but bad teams on long losing streaks are actually good bets, as underdogs or picks on a 5 games or more losing streak, with a season win percentage of .250 or less are 80-35-2 ATS since 1994, including 63-19-2 ATS if their opponent does not have the revenge motive. The Lions also apply to a 120-55-1 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation while the Bears qualify in a negative 26-59-1 ATS situation. Laying points wit ha bad team is not a smart thing to do, even when they are facing another bad team. In fact, home favorites are just 73-104-4 ATS if they have a win percentage of .200 or less (not including 0-1 teams). My math model favors Detroit by 1 point in this game with Chandler at quarterback for Chicago and with Thomas only having a 50/50 chance of playing. So, I’ll consider Detroit a Strong opinion in this game and only their long road losing streak kept me from making them a Best Bet in this game.
I hesitantly say Lions by 3
The Lions have lost 17 straight road games, but I’ll give them a decent shot at beating a bad Bears team whose offense is actually worse without Kordell Stewart’s running (211 yards at 5.0). Stewart is probable but Chris Chandler has been named the starter and I don’t see him being any better throwing the ball after his poor performance last week (3.4 yards per pass play and 2 picks). The Bears may also be without leading rusher Anthony Thomas (397 yards at 5.5 ypr) and Chicago managed only 87 rushing yards at 3.1 ypr last week with Thomas and Stewart both out. The Bears can’t run and the Bears can’t throw (3.9 yards per pass play for the season against teams that combine to allow 5.7 yppp on defense), so I don’t see them taking advantage of an only slightly worse than average Lions’ defense (5.6 yards per play allowed to teams that average 5.5 yppl on offense). Detroit’s offense isn’t too good either (4.4 yppl against teams that allow 4.9 yppl), but it’s better than Chicago’s offense and the Bears’ defense has been nothing special this year (allowing 5.5 yppl to teams that average a combined 5.5 yppl on offense). Detroit hasn’t won since opening day, but bad teams on long losing streaks are actually good bets, as underdogs or picks on a 5 games or more losing streak, with a season win percentage of .250 or less are 80-35-2 ATS since 1994, including 63-19-2 ATS if their opponent does not have the revenge motive. The Lions also apply to a 120-55-1 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation while the Bears qualify in a negative 26-59-1 ATS situation. Laying points wit ha bad team is not a smart thing to do, even when they are facing another bad team. In fact, home favorites are just 73-104-4 ATS if they have a win percentage of .200 or less (not including 0-1 teams). My math model favors Detroit by 1 point in this game with Chandler at quarterback for Chicago and with Thomas only having a 50/50 chance of playing. So, I’ll consider Detroit a Strong opinion in this game and only their long road losing streak kept me from making them a Best Bet in this game.
I hesitantly say Lions by 3