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Tampa Bay (-6.5) versus Dallas
San Francisco ran the ball right at the Buccaneers last Sunday and came away with 212 rushing yards and 458 total yards in a 24-7 win over the defending champs. I’m sure Bill Parcells is studying that tape long and hard, but I’m not sure that Dallas is good enough running the ball (just 3.7 ypr against teams that allow 3.9 ypr on defense) to take full advantage of a mediocre Bucs’ run defense (4.2 ypr allowed to teams that average a combined 4.2 ypr on offense). I do know Dallas is good enough overall offensively (5.3 yards per play against teams that allow 5.2 yppl) to put up a decent number of points against a Tampa Bay defense that is still good (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.0 yppl on offense), but not close to last year’s high standards. Dallas actually has the best defense on the field in this game, as the Cowboys have yielded just 4.2 yppl this season (to teams that combine to average 4.7 yppl on offense). That unit appears very capable of limiting a better than average Tampa Bay offense that has averaged 5.6 yppl this season (against teams that allow an average of 5.3 yppl on defense). There really isn’t much of a difference between these teams statistically so taking the points is certainly the way to go on a fundamentals basis. However, Jon Gruden’s teams rarely play poorly in back-to-back games, as he I s29-11 ATS in his coaching career after a game in which his team lost straight up or lost to the pointspread, including 20-5 ATS more recently. The Bucs are 5-1 ATS under Gruden following a loss and have allowed an average of just 7 points in those 6 games. But, Cowboys’ coach Bill Parcells is 62-41-4 ATS in his coaching career as an underdog, including 21-5-2 ATS since ’97. As an underdog of more than 3 points, Parcells’ teams are an even better 41-15-2 ATS since the middle of the ’84 season. Dallas applies to a 191-116-13 ATS statistical match-up indicator and they are clearly the side that I prefer in this game.
I say this one is close with the Fuccaneers winning by a field goal.
San Francisco ran the ball right at the Buccaneers last Sunday and came away with 212 rushing yards and 458 total yards in a 24-7 win over the defending champs. I’m sure Bill Parcells is studying that tape long and hard, but I’m not sure that Dallas is good enough running the ball (just 3.7 ypr against teams that allow 3.9 ypr on defense) to take full advantage of a mediocre Bucs’ run defense (4.2 ypr allowed to teams that average a combined 4.2 ypr on offense). I do know Dallas is good enough overall offensively (5.3 yards per play against teams that allow 5.2 yppl) to put up a decent number of points against a Tampa Bay defense that is still good (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.0 yppl on offense), but not close to last year’s high standards. Dallas actually has the best defense on the field in this game, as the Cowboys have yielded just 4.2 yppl this season (to teams that combine to average 4.7 yppl on offense). That unit appears very capable of limiting a better than average Tampa Bay offense that has averaged 5.6 yppl this season (against teams that allow an average of 5.3 yppl on defense). There really isn’t much of a difference between these teams statistically so taking the points is certainly the way to go on a fundamentals basis. However, Jon Gruden’s teams rarely play poorly in back-to-back games, as he I s29-11 ATS in his coaching career after a game in which his team lost straight up or lost to the pointspread, including 20-5 ATS more recently. The Bucs are 5-1 ATS under Gruden following a loss and have allowed an average of just 7 points in those 6 games. But, Cowboys’ coach Bill Parcells is 62-41-4 ATS in his coaching career as an underdog, including 21-5-2 ATS since ’97. As an underdog of more than 3 points, Parcells’ teams are an even better 41-15-2 ATS since the middle of the ’84 season. Dallas applies to a 191-116-13 ATS statistical match-up indicator and they are clearly the side that I prefer in this game.
I say this one is close with the Fuccaneers winning by a field goal.