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Kansas City (-6.5) versus Buffalo
The Chiefs escaped Oakland with their perfect record intact and good teams that return home after consecutive road games generally perform well when facing a mediocre or poor opponent. In fact, Kansas City applies to an 81-34-1 ATS situation that is based on that premise. I’m not going to recommend the Chiefs too heavily in this game, since their defense isn’t that strong and the Bills have a defense that appears to be good enough to keep the Kansas City attack in check. Buffalo has allowed an average of just 4.2 yards per play this season (against teams that combine to average 4.8 yppl on offense) and they have been especially good defending the pass (4.6 yards per pass play allowed to teams that average 5.7 yppl on offense). The Chiefs’ offense, averaging 5.7 yppl (against teams that combine to allow 5.2 yppl) will likely have success running the football, but their pass attack should be held in check. The Bills’ offense has managed only 4.7 yppl this season (against teams that allow 5.0 yppl), but they should move the ball at a decent clip against a Kansas City defense that has surrendered 5.4 yppl to teams that average a combined 5.3 yppl on offense. Overall, my math model favors Kansas City by 5 points and I’ll call for a slightly larger victory based on the situation that favors the Chiefs.
I like the chiefs to cover in this one. Chiefs by 8
The Chiefs escaped Oakland with their perfect record intact and good teams that return home after consecutive road games generally perform well when facing a mediocre or poor opponent. In fact, Kansas City applies to an 81-34-1 ATS situation that is based on that premise. I’m not going to recommend the Chiefs too heavily in this game, since their defense isn’t that strong and the Bills have a defense that appears to be good enough to keep the Kansas City attack in check. Buffalo has allowed an average of just 4.2 yards per play this season (against teams that combine to average 4.8 yppl on offense) and they have been especially good defending the pass (4.6 yards per pass play allowed to teams that average 5.7 yppl on offense). The Chiefs’ offense, averaging 5.7 yppl (against teams that combine to allow 5.2 yppl) will likely have success running the football, but their pass attack should be held in check. The Bills’ offense has managed only 4.7 yppl this season (against teams that allow 5.0 yppl), but they should move the ball at a decent clip against a Kansas City defense that has surrendered 5.4 yppl to teams that average a combined 5.3 yppl on offense. Overall, my math model favors Kansas City by 5 points and I’ll call for a slightly larger victory based on the situation that favors the Chiefs.
I like the chiefs to cover in this one. Chiefs by 8