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Florida St. (-11.5) @ Notre Dame
Notre Dame beat Florida State 34-24 in Tallahassee last season to up their record to 8-0 straight up and 8-0 ATS under Ty Willingham. However, the Irish lost the next week at home to Boston College and are just 4-8 straight up and 3-9 ATS since last year’s win in this series. The Irish have played the nation’s toughest schedule this season, so they aren’t nearly as bad as their stats make them out to be. Notre Dame has averaged only 4.3 yards per play this season, but they have averaged 4.6 yppl with quarterback Brady Quinn on the field and he’s faced a schedule of teams that combines to allow 4.6 yppl on defense for the season. Notre Dame’s average attack will once again struggle to move the ball consistently against a very good Florida State defense that’s yielded just 4.2 yppl this season (to teams that average a combined 5.2 yppl on offense). I do think that Notre Dame’s outstanding defense (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.7 yppl on offense) will keep them in this game against a good, but not great, Seminoles’ offense that has averaged 5.8 yppl (against teams that allow 5.4 yppl on defense). Overall, my mathematical model favors Florida State by only 7 points and Florida State’s revenge motive means nothing in this game (Bowden is just 18-20-1 ATS with revenge).
Predicition? Florida State 24 Notre Dame 17
Notre Dame beat Florida State 34-24 in Tallahassee last season to up their record to 8-0 straight up and 8-0 ATS under Ty Willingham. However, the Irish lost the next week at home to Boston College and are just 4-8 straight up and 3-9 ATS since last year’s win in this series. The Irish have played the nation’s toughest schedule this season, so they aren’t nearly as bad as their stats make them out to be. Notre Dame has averaged only 4.3 yards per play this season, but they have averaged 4.6 yppl with quarterback Brady Quinn on the field and he’s faced a schedule of teams that combines to allow 4.6 yppl on defense for the season. Notre Dame’s average attack will once again struggle to move the ball consistently against a very good Florida State defense that’s yielded just 4.2 yppl this season (to teams that average a combined 5.2 yppl on offense). I do think that Notre Dame’s outstanding defense (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.7 yppl on offense) will keep them in this game against a good, but not great, Seminoles’ offense that has averaged 5.8 yppl (against teams that allow 5.4 yppl on defense). Overall, my mathematical model favors Florida State by only 7 points and Florida State’s revenge motive means nothing in this game (Bowden is just 18-20-1 ATS with revenge).
Predicition? Florida State 24 Notre Dame 17