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Minnesota (-28.0) versus Indiana
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season, with their only spread loss coming in a 34 point win as a 35 point favorite. The Gophers’ penchant for blowout wins is tough to ignore, but conference home favorites of 24 points or more that covered as a conference road favorite the previous week have a tendency to letdown and Minnesota applies to a negative 36-59-2 ATS situation that is based on that premise. That angle isn’t strong enough to get me to favor an Illinois team that is 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games, but the line has certainly adjusted to the current status of these two teams, as my math model favors Minnesota by 29 ½ points. Minnesota’s potent, balanced attack is averaging 5.8 yards per rushing play and 9.2 yards per pass play (against teams that combine to allow 4.8 yprp and 6.0 yppp) and they’ll have an easy time scoring against an Illinois defense that isn’t too bad against the run (4.6 yprp against teams that average 4.3 yprp) but is among the worst in the nation defending the pass (8.7 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.5 yppp on offense). Minnesota is a team that runs the ball 69% of the time, but they could score on every possession if they decide to open up their attack and throw the ball more often. Illinois quarterback Matt LoVecchio is questionable for this game with a concussion, but his backup did a good job filling in last week, so I don’t see them being much worse than they already are (4.3 yards per play against teams that allow 4.9 yppl) and I don’t see them scoring too many points on a better than average Minnesota defense (4.6 yppl against teams that average 4.9 yppl on offense) that has allowed an average of just 13 points in 7 games against teams with an average or worse offense. This looks like another Minnesota blowout win
Prediciton? Minnesota 48 Indiana 10
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season, with their only spread loss coming in a 34 point win as a 35 point favorite. The Gophers’ penchant for blowout wins is tough to ignore, but conference home favorites of 24 points or more that covered as a conference road favorite the previous week have a tendency to letdown and Minnesota applies to a negative 36-59-2 ATS situation that is based on that premise. That angle isn’t strong enough to get me to favor an Illinois team that is 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games, but the line has certainly adjusted to the current status of these two teams, as my math model favors Minnesota by 29 ½ points. Minnesota’s potent, balanced attack is averaging 5.8 yards per rushing play and 9.2 yards per pass play (against teams that combine to allow 4.8 yprp and 6.0 yppp) and they’ll have an easy time scoring against an Illinois defense that isn’t too bad against the run (4.6 yprp against teams that average 4.3 yprp) but is among the worst in the nation defending the pass (8.7 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.5 yppp on offense). Minnesota is a team that runs the ball 69% of the time, but they could score on every possession if they decide to open up their attack and throw the ball more often. Illinois quarterback Matt LoVecchio is questionable for this game with a concussion, but his backup did a good job filling in last week, so I don’t see them being much worse than they already are (4.3 yards per play against teams that allow 4.9 yppl) and I don’t see them scoring too many points on a better than average Minnesota defense (4.6 yppl against teams that average 4.9 yppl on offense) that has allowed an average of just 13 points in 7 games against teams with an average or worse offense. This looks like another Minnesota blowout win
Prediciton? Minnesota 48 Indiana 10