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Texas (-5.5) versus Nebraska
Nebraska is only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games away from home (1-1 ATS this year), but the Huskers are playing great defensively and qualify in a very strong 35-9 ATS road underdog situation that is based on their two most recent defensive efforts. That defense has allowed just 3.9 yards per play this season (to teams that combine to average 5.0 yppl on offense), so they appear capable of containing a Texas offense that has averaged 6.3 yppl against teams that allow a combined 5.5 yppl on defense. However, the Cornhuskers were torched by multi-dimensional Missouri quarterback Brad Smith a few weeks ago for 452 yards at 6.2 yppl, so the Longhorns’ Vince Young, averaging 7.2 yards per pass play and totaling 593 rush yards at 9.7 yards per rushing play, could do similar damage in this game. Young has been splitting time with Chance Mock, who has averaged an impressive 7.9 yppp but doesn’t run often. Young appears to be the better able to attack Nebraska’s defense and Mack Brown may give him more playing time this week. Nebraska’s offense has been worse than average this year (5.0 yards per play against teams that allow a combined 5.2 yppl on defense), but they should move the ball fairly well against a Longhorns’ defense that is just average defending the run (4.6 yprp allowed to teams that average 4.7 yprp on offense). Texas applies to a very strong 76-22-3 ATS home momentum situation this week, which balances out the good situation that Nebraska is in. This game comes down to how well Vince Young can use his mobility to beat a good Nebraska defense.
Prediciton? Texas 24 Nebraska 21 (late field goal)
Nebraska is only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games away from home (1-1 ATS this year), but the Huskers are playing great defensively and qualify in a very strong 35-9 ATS road underdog situation that is based on their two most recent defensive efforts. That defense has allowed just 3.9 yards per play this season (to teams that combine to average 5.0 yppl on offense), so they appear capable of containing a Texas offense that has averaged 6.3 yppl against teams that allow a combined 5.5 yppl on defense. However, the Cornhuskers were torched by multi-dimensional Missouri quarterback Brad Smith a few weeks ago for 452 yards at 6.2 yppl, so the Longhorns’ Vince Young, averaging 7.2 yards per pass play and totaling 593 rush yards at 9.7 yards per rushing play, could do similar damage in this game. Young has been splitting time with Chance Mock, who has averaged an impressive 7.9 yppp but doesn’t run often. Young appears to be the better able to attack Nebraska’s defense and Mack Brown may give him more playing time this week. Nebraska’s offense has been worse than average this year (5.0 yards per play against teams that allow a combined 5.2 yppl on defense), but they should move the ball fairly well against a Longhorns’ defense that is just average defending the run (4.6 yprp allowed to teams that average 4.7 yprp on offense). Texas applies to a very strong 76-22-3 ATS home momentum situation this week, which balances out the good situation that Nebraska is in. This game comes down to how well Vince Young can use his mobility to beat a good Nebraska defense.
Prediciton? Texas 24 Nebraska 21 (late field goal)