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San Diego at Chicago
Sunday, Nov-02 10:00 AM
Favorite: Chicago -2.5
Total: 40.0
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02
The Bears are a dismal team with a horrible offense and a mediocre defense that is constantly having to defend short fields. San Diego may have a worse record, with just 1 win, but the Chargers are not dismal. San Diego has a better than average offense, averaging 5.1 yards per play this season against teams that allow just 4.9 yppl on defense. That run-oriented attack should work pretty well in this game since the Bears are not good defending the run (4.7 ypr allowed to teams that average 4.4 ypr on offense). Chicago’s offense, meanwhile, doesn’t appear good enough to take advantage of a worse than average San Diego defense that’s surrendered 5.5 yppl this season to teams that combine to average 5.1 yppl on offense. The Bears will have Chris Chandler at quarterback for a third straight week, and Chandler is a better passer than Stewart, who is available to play but will be the backup. However, Chandler has averaged just 4.7 yards per pass play in his time with the Bears (due to a bad scheme and bad receivers) and he doesn’t give the offense the running threat that Stewart does (211 yards on 42 rushes). Chicago may also be without star tailback Anthony Thomas for a third straight week, which is a big loss considering he averaged 5.5 ypr in the Bears’ first 5 games (against teams that allow an average of 4.4 ypr on defense). Without Stewart and Thomas, the rushing attack has mustered only 2.9 ypr in the last two games (against teams that allow 4.0 ypr combined). The Bears have averaged a pathetic 4.3 yards per play this season (against teams that combine to allow 5.2 yppl on defense) and are considerably worse without Thomas. Overall, my math model favors San Diego by 1 point if Thomas plays and 3 ½ points if he doesn’t and I’d prefer to take whatever points are available with the better team.
Sunday, Nov-02 10:00 AM
Favorite: Chicago -2.5
Total: 40.0
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02
The Bears are a dismal team with a horrible offense and a mediocre defense that is constantly having to defend short fields. San Diego may have a worse record, with just 1 win, but the Chargers are not dismal. San Diego has a better than average offense, averaging 5.1 yards per play this season against teams that allow just 4.9 yppl on defense. That run-oriented attack should work pretty well in this game since the Bears are not good defending the run (4.7 ypr allowed to teams that average 4.4 ypr on offense). Chicago’s offense, meanwhile, doesn’t appear good enough to take advantage of a worse than average San Diego defense that’s surrendered 5.5 yppl this season to teams that combine to average 5.1 yppl on offense. The Bears will have Chris Chandler at quarterback for a third straight week, and Chandler is a better passer than Stewart, who is available to play but will be the backup. However, Chandler has averaged just 4.7 yards per pass play in his time with the Bears (due to a bad scheme and bad receivers) and he doesn’t give the offense the running threat that Stewart does (211 yards on 42 rushes). Chicago may also be without star tailback Anthony Thomas for a third straight week, which is a big loss considering he averaged 5.5 ypr in the Bears’ first 5 games (against teams that allow an average of 4.4 ypr on defense). Without Stewart and Thomas, the rushing attack has mustered only 2.9 ypr in the last two games (against teams that allow 4.0 ypr combined). The Bears have averaged a pathetic 4.3 yards per play this season (against teams that combine to allow 5.2 yppl on defense) and are considerably worse without Thomas. Overall, my math model favors San Diego by 1 point if Thomas plays and 3 ½ points if he doesn’t and I’d prefer to take whatever points are available with the better team.