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New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Sunday, Nov-02 10:00 AM
Favorite: Tampa Bay -8.0
Total: 39.0
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02
Tampa Bay has been very inconsistent this season, posting an 0-3 ATS mark after a win and a 3-0 ATS mark after a loss. After bouncing back from their 7-24 loss in San Francisco with a 16-0 win over Dallas, I expect the Bucs to relax again this week against a Saints’ team in need of a big win. New Orleans has been a disappointment this season at just 3-5, but the Saints apply to a 242-146-11 ATS contrary indicator and a 204-124-12 ATS bounce-back situation this week. The Bucs, meanwhile, qualify in a negative 26-58-1 ATS letdown situation, as teams that win to get above .500 are bad bets as big favorites in their next game if facing a losing team. Despite last week’s shutout win, the Buccaneers are clearly not as dominant defensively as they were last season and the loss of hard hitting safety Lynch hurts. For the season, Tampa has yielded 4.7 yards per play (to teams that combined to average 5.0 yppl on offense) and they’ve allowed 6.5 yppl in two of their last four games (to Indy and SF). New Orleans has the weapons on offense to take advantage of any lull in the Bucs’ defensive intensity and they are certainly better offensively than what they’ve shown (5.3 yppl against teams that allow a combined 5.5 yppl on defense). The Saints have played pretty decently on the defensive side of the ball this year, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.2 yppl on offense, and they should do a decent job on a better than average Bucs’ attack (5.4 yppl against teams that allow 5.1 yppl). Overall, my math model favors Tampa Bay by only 6 points thanks to a significant advantage in special teams for the Saints and the situations also favor New Orleans to cover the number.
Sunday, Nov-02 10:00 AM
Favorite: Tampa Bay -8.0
Total: 39.0
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02
Tampa Bay has been very inconsistent this season, posting an 0-3 ATS mark after a win and a 3-0 ATS mark after a loss. After bouncing back from their 7-24 loss in San Francisco with a 16-0 win over Dallas, I expect the Bucs to relax again this week against a Saints’ team in need of a big win. New Orleans has been a disappointment this season at just 3-5, but the Saints apply to a 242-146-11 ATS contrary indicator and a 204-124-12 ATS bounce-back situation this week. The Bucs, meanwhile, qualify in a negative 26-58-1 ATS letdown situation, as teams that win to get above .500 are bad bets as big favorites in their next game if facing a losing team. Despite last week’s shutout win, the Buccaneers are clearly not as dominant defensively as they were last season and the loss of hard hitting safety Lynch hurts. For the season, Tampa has yielded 4.7 yards per play (to teams that combined to average 5.0 yppl on offense) and they’ve allowed 6.5 yppl in two of their last four games (to Indy and SF). New Orleans has the weapons on offense to take advantage of any lull in the Bucs’ defensive intensity and they are certainly better offensively than what they’ve shown (5.3 yppl against teams that allow a combined 5.5 yppl on defense). The Saints have played pretty decently on the defensive side of the ball this year, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.2 yppl on offense, and they should do a decent job on a better than average Bucs’ attack (5.4 yppl against teams that allow 5.1 yppl). Overall, my math model favors Tampa Bay by only 6 points thanks to a significant advantage in special teams for the Saints and the situations also favor New Orleans to cover the number.