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Indianapolis at Miami
Sunday, Nov-02 10:00 AM
Favorite: Miami -3.0
Total: 39.0
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02
The Colts find themselves in a negative 45-97-4 ATS situation and a negative 26-64-4 ATS statistical profile indicator while Miami applies to a positive 192-119-13 ATS statistical match-up indicator. The two statistical indicators combine to go 17-4-1 ATS for the home team when both apply to the same game, but I’m not thrilled with Miami from a fundamental perspective. The Dolphins have averaged only 4.9 yards per play on offense (against teams that combine to allow an average of 5.1 yppl on defense) and they gained just 4.6 yppl on Monday night against a Chargers’ defense that allows 5.5 yppl on defense this season. The Colts’ defense is just average (5.2 yppl against teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense), but they appear to be good enough to contain the Dolphins’ sub-par attack. The Colts’ offense, meanwhile, has averaged an impressive 5.9 yppl this season (against teams that allow 5.2 yppl on defense) and they appear to have the advantage over a Miami defense that is only a bit better than average overall (4.9 yppl against teams that average 5.1 yppl) and is worse than average against the pass (6.1 yards per pass play allowed to teams that average 5.9 yppp on offense) – which is not a good omen when facing a red-hot Peyton Manning (7.7 yppp against teams that allow 6.1 yppp). Miami’s defense has traditionally played much better at home than they have on the road under Dave Wannstadt and they have given up yards but remain the best in the league in red-zone defense, so it’s certainly possible that the Dolphins’ defense can contain the Colts in this game. My math model favors Indianapolis in this game, but the situations favoring Miami make it tough to go against them.
Sunday, Nov-02 10:00 AM
Favorite: Miami -3.0
Total: 39.0
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02
The Colts find themselves in a negative 45-97-4 ATS situation and a negative 26-64-4 ATS statistical profile indicator while Miami applies to a positive 192-119-13 ATS statistical match-up indicator. The two statistical indicators combine to go 17-4-1 ATS for the home team when both apply to the same game, but I’m not thrilled with Miami from a fundamental perspective. The Dolphins have averaged only 4.9 yards per play on offense (against teams that combine to allow an average of 5.1 yppl on defense) and they gained just 4.6 yppl on Monday night against a Chargers’ defense that allows 5.5 yppl on defense this season. The Colts’ defense is just average (5.2 yppl against teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense), but they appear to be good enough to contain the Dolphins’ sub-par attack. The Colts’ offense, meanwhile, has averaged an impressive 5.9 yppl this season (against teams that allow 5.2 yppl on defense) and they appear to have the advantage over a Miami defense that is only a bit better than average overall (4.9 yppl against teams that average 5.1 yppl) and is worse than average against the pass (6.1 yards per pass play allowed to teams that average 5.9 yppp on offense) – which is not a good omen when facing a red-hot Peyton Manning (7.7 yppp against teams that allow 6.1 yppp). Miami’s defense has traditionally played much better at home than they have on the road under Dave Wannstadt and they have given up yards but remain the best in the league in red-zone defense, so it’s certainly possible that the Dolphins’ defense can contain the Colts in this game. My math model favors Indianapolis in this game, but the situations favoring Miami make it tough to go against them.