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Old 08-29-18, 09:24 AM
2008 Is Starting Again - Stock Market Crash Incoming
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Pending Home Sales Slump For 7th Straight Month As "Overheated Real Estate Markets" Start To Drop

Amid its "broadest slowdown in years" the US housing market faces prices for starter homes at the highest they have been since 2008, just prior to the collapse of the housing market, and August is confirming that prices are indeed becoming an issue.

Following the drop in Existing- and New-home sales (as well as another drop in mortgage apps), Pending-home sales missed expectations dramatically, dropping 0.7% MoM in July (+0.3% exp).





Full Article: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...-markets-start
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Old 08-29-18, 09:30 AM
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Stock markets hitting all time highs and housing market in decline.. this shit is gonna make 2008 seem like a simple consolidation.. This is the tipping point. Anyone in the stock market right now should follow the obvious but often forgotten rule to sell high and buy low... Once it crashes these highs will take a long time to return..

All time highs are NOT a time to celebrate if you are a holder.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying the stock market will crash tomorrow. It may continue to rise for awhile. But make no mistake, this bubble will pop in the near future.
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Old 08-29-18, 10:06 AM
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Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffet
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Old 08-29-18, 10:32 AM
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Pro trader Alessio Rastani and billionaire investor Jim Rogers give warning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHYIdcmmZJI
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Old 09-06-18, 09:37 AM
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All the signs are there but the stock market keeps keeps going up just like early 2007 The DJ Real Estate index is at almost identical numbers as it was in 2007 leading up to the big crash in 2008.



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Old 09-06-18, 10:10 AM
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This isn't an issue until delinquency rates go up. They have been on steep decline ever since then. Far less subprime mortgages and people are paying on time. Here is a chart for delinquency rates. That's your key indicator.

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Old 09-06-18, 10:13 AM
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prices keep rising bro. insane bubble in all the big cities. companies buying back there own stocks. this is a bubble just as bad as bitcoin last december. it's got to pop and the longer it goes on the bigger the pop will be.
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Old 09-06-18, 10:25 AM
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Isolated bubbles. My home value hasn't even risen above what it was when I bought it in 2005 yet.
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Old 09-07-18, 10:27 AM
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Isolated bubbles. My home value hasn't even risen above what it was when I bought it in 2005 yet.
You live in ohier brah. I'm talking about places that matter to the economy.

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Old 09-07-18, 10:44 AM
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Disaster Is Inevitable When America's Stock Market Bubble Bursts

Despite the volatility and brief correction earlier this year, the U.S. stock market is back to making record highs in the past couple weeks. To many observers, this market now seems downright bulletproof as it keeps going higher and higher as it has for nearly a decade in direct defiance of the naysayers' warnings. Unfortunately, this unusual market strength is not evidence of a strong, organic economy, but of an extremely unhealthy, artificial bubble economy that will end in a crisis that will be even worse than we experienced in 2008. In this report, I will show a wide variety of charts that prove how unsustainable the current bull market is.

Full Article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jesseco.../#5402cff71b82
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Old 09-07-18, 08:09 PM
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House prices are relatively low in my area compared to where they were pre-2008 crash and we have some of the most expensive real estate in the country in my neck of the woods. While the economy is definitely unstable, it’s not on levels like 2008.
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Old 09-08-18, 06:23 PM
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House prices are relatively low in my area compared to where they were pre-2008 crash and we have some of the most expensive real estate in the country in my neck of the woods. While the economy is definitely unstable, it’s not on levels like 2008.
you guys need to look past your backyards. major cities worldwide are experiencing major housing bubbles never seen in history.
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Old 09-08-18, 06:31 PM
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The End Of Cheap Debt: The Fall & Rise Of Interest Rates

Total debt (public + private) in America is currently at a staggering $67 trillion.

That number has been rising fast over the past 47 years, following the US dollar's transformation into a fully-fiat currency in August of 1971.

Perhaps this wouldn't be such a big concern were America's income, measured by GDP, growing at a similar rate. But it's not.

Growth in debt has far outpaced GDP, as evidenced by this chart:



In 1971, the US debt-to-GDP ratio was 1.48x. That's roughly the same multiple it had averaged over the prior century.

But today? That ratio has spiked to to 3.47x, more than doubling over just 4 decades.

There are many troubling conclusions to draw from this, but here's a simple way to look at it: It's taking more and more debt to eke out a unit of GDP growth.

Put in other words: the US economic engine is seizing up, requiring increasingly more effort to function.

At some point -- quite possibly some point soon -- the economy will no longer be able to grow because all of its output must be used to service the ballooning debt load rather than future investment.

Accelerating this point of reckoning are two major recent trends: rising interest rates and the end of global QE.

Why? Because much of the recent explosion in debt has been fueled by central bank policy:

Interest rates have been on a steady decline since the 1980s, making debt increasingly cheaper to issue and to service.

Since 2008, central banks have been voracious buyers of debt. Countries/companies have been able to borrow $trillions, enabled (both directly and indirectly) by these "buyers of last resort".

But both of those trends are ending, fast.

Interest rates have been rising off of their all-time rock-bottom lows over the past two years. While still low by historic standards, the rise is certainly material enough already to make the US' $70 trillion in total debt more expensive to service, putting an even greater weight on America's already-burdened economy.

And all indicators point to even higher rates ahead; with the Federal Reserve expected to increase the federal funds rate another 50% by 2020:



These higher rates make the US debt overhang even more expensive to service, while also forcing valuations downwards for major asset classes like bonds, housing and equities (the prices of which are derived in part by interest rates, as explained here).

These higher expected rates also co-incide with the cessation of global quantitative easing (QE). The world's major central banks have announced that they will cease making purchases by 2020:



Without these indiscriminate buyers-of-last-resort, debt issuers will need to offer higher rates to entice the next marginal buyer. How much higher will rates need to rise as a result? It's pretty easy to make the argument for "a lot".
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Old 09-08-18, 06:44 PM
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you guys need to look past your backyards. major cities worldwide are experiencing major housing bubbles never seen in history.
Right but people can still afford it. When they can't anymore is when we will get trouble. Problem coming potentially yes but not at this moment.

I think we're beginning to see rising wages. Right now there are more jobs than people able to fill them and companies are starting to offer more pay to incite hiring vs their competitors. If this keeps up we will see wages really explode. This will push the bubble pop further out.
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Old 09-08-18, 06:54 PM
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Right but people can still afford it. When they can't anymore is when we will get trouble. Problem coming potentially yes but not at this moment.

I think we're beginning to see rising wages. Right now there are more jobs than people able to fill them and companies are starting to offer more pay to incite hiring vs their competitors. If this keeps up we will see wages really explode. This will push the bubble pop further out.
Read the first post in this thread bro. It's not specifically what you are talking about but it points towards a trend reversal.

I'm not saying it's all gonna crash on Monday. But I think we are very much at the tipping point.

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Old 09-09-18, 03:47 PM
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A stock-market bear signal is at a more-than-4-decade high, says Goldman

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-...man-2018-09-06
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Old 09-10-18, 02:44 PM
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US Consumer Credit Hits All Time High As Credit Card Usage Stalls

Two months after a near record surge in consumer credit driven by a spike in credit card debt, the US consumer went into a period hibernation to start the summer, when total consumer credit rose by just $8.5 billion in June, with revolving, or credit card debt posting only its second contraction since 2013. Then moments ago, the Fed reported that in July, consumer credit posted a solid rebound, rising by $16.6 billion, above the $14.4 billion expected, and bringing the total to $3.92 trillion, a 5.1% annualized increase from a year ago.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...d-usage-stalls
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Old 09-11-18, 02:48 PM
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The next financial crisis ‘will be more severe’ socially and politically, says billionaire investor Dalio

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‘I think it will be more severe in terms of the social, political problems. And I think it will be more difficult to handle ... It won’t be the same in the terms of the big-bang debt crisis. It’ll be a slower growing, more constricting sort of debt crisis that I think will have bigger social implications and bigger international implications.’
Ray Dalio, founder and co-CIO, Bridgewater Associates
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...lio-2018-09-11
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Old 10-10-18, 03:05 PM
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This is just the beginning folks. DOW down 800 points in a day. Hundreds of points down the previous day's.. the bull run is over.

Digital gold aka Bitcoin is the only hedge that will keep you safe. As traditional markets plunge Bitcoin will explode out of it's year long bear market. Fact.



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Old 10-10-18, 04:29 PM
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Carnage Continues After-Hours - Dow Down 1000 Pts

After the ugliest day in years, things got uglier after-hours...

Dow futures are now down 1000 points...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...aq-collapses-5
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Old 10-10-18, 05:26 PM
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This is what happens when the fed raises the interest rates. Bonds actually are worth buying for people now. They are up over 3% for the first time in 7 years. This has zero to do with the condition of the economy but rather people moving some money to bonds. You'll see another day or two of decline which makes this a perfect time to get a discount on good stocks. Or buy some bonds for guaranteed mild return.

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Old 10-10-18, 06:22 PM
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This is what happens when the fed raises the interest rates. Bonds actually are worth buying for people now. They are up over 3% for the first time in 7 years. This has zero to do with the condition of the economy but rather people moving some money to bonds. You'll see another day or two of decline which makes this a perfect time to get a discount on good stocks. Or buy some bonds for guaranteed mild return.

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i'm hoping to buy amazon in a few days when its 35 cents.
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Old 10-11-18, 02:10 AM
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This is just the beginning folks. DOW down 800 points in a day. Hundreds of points down the previous day's.. the bull run is over.

Digital gold aka Bitcoin is the only hedge that will keep you safe. As traditional markets plunge Bitcoin will explode out of it's year long bear market. Fact.



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What was that about being safe in Bitcoin?

Nearly*$13 billion wiped off of cryptocurrency market as major coins plunge

The price of major cryptocurrencies plunged on Thursday with nearly $13 billion of value being wiped out in a matter of hours.
At around 10:23 a.m. HK/SIN,*bitcoin*had fallen nearly 5 percent to $6,303, while*XRPand*ethereum*both tanked over 10 percent, according to data from Coinmarketcap.com. It's not unusual to see bitcoin lead other digital tokens lower.
In just three hours, nearly $13 billion of value had been erased from the entire cryptocurrency market.


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Old 10-11-18, 04:34 AM
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What was that about being safe in Bitcoin?

Nearly*$13 billion wiped off of cryptocurrency market as major coins plunge

The price of major cryptocurrencies plunged on Thursday with nearly $13 billion of value being wiped out in a matter of hours.
At around 10:23 a.m. HK/SIN,*bitcoin*had fallen nearly 5 percent to $6,303, while*XRPand*ethereum*both tanked over 10 percent, according to data from Coinmarketcap.com. It's not unusual to see bitcoin lead other digital tokens lower.
In just three hours, nearly $13 billion of value had been erased from the entire cryptocurrency market.


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In crypto it's common to see $20 billion added or lost in single hourly candle. We should see a nice bull response by this coming Mon-Wed.

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Old 10-11-18, 09:45 AM
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LOL @ trump attacking the Fed. Trump knows very well a correction is due. He just wants to be able to say to his base "it's not me it's the fed!".

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/11/fed-...b-frenkel.html

The Fed hasn't 'gone crazy' and Trump shouldn't publicly diagnose: JP Morgan international chairman

The Federal Reserve's policy of normalizing interest rates is appropriate since the U.S. economy has recovered on all fronts, according to Jacob Frenkel, chairman of J.P. Morgan Chase International.

In the U.S., inflation is at the Fed's target, growth has recovered, labor markets are very good and unemployment is low, he explained.

On Wednesday, the president again criticized the central bank, saying, "I think the Fed has gone crazy."
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Old 10-11-18, 02:08 PM
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I will say that this could go very bad if people panic for no reason. Companies are reporting consistent profits exceeding market expectations. This should keep things up in theory. So while I can't predict if people will panic or not I can confidently say it isn't justified if they do. Regardless I hold steady and don't get phased by even a correction or even a recession.

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Old 10-11-18, 02:14 PM
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I will say that this could go very bad if people panic for no reason. Companies are reporting consistent profits exceeding market expectations. This should keep things up in theory. So while I can't predict if people will panic or not I can confidently say it isn't justified if they do. Regardless I hold steady and don't get phased by even a correction or even a recession.

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Gold is way up!

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Old 10-12-18, 06:00 AM
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Futures are up around 1%, it may be a fake out though. open high and fall over the course of the day is my call.

This is something that I don't think most people are aware of but has had a measurable effect. Corporate buyback's are in a "blackout" period. I don't think people realize just how much some of these companies help to keep the market up by buying there own stocks.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/11/the-...t-turmoil.html
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Old 10-20-18, 05:17 PM
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Goldman: "The Fed Will Deliver Significantly More Hikes Than Are Priced In", Here's Why

Back in May 2017, when moments after the Fed's latest rate hike stocks soared to new all time highs, Goldman economists found something strange: "surprisingly, financial markets took the meeting as a large dovish surprise—the third-largest at an FOMC meeting since 2000 outside the financial crisis, based on the co-movement of different asset prices." Even more surprising is that according to Goldman, its financial conditions index, "eased sharply, by the equivalent of almost one full cut in the federal funds rate."

In other words, as we noted at the time, the Fed's 0.25% rate hike had the same effect as a 0.25% rate cut, and as Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius went on to say, this was "almost certainly not" the desired outcome that Janet Yellen had been going after, and that markets had in fact misread the Fed's tightening intentions.

A year and a half later things have changed substantially because as Yellen's replacement, Fed chair Powell, has made abundantly clear the Fed's intentions to tighten enough to slow down the economy are now front and center, and with the Fed Funds rate now above 2% and set to rise above 3% in the coming year, the market is not only paying close attention but is no longer mistaking rate hikes for cuts.

But with trillions in excess reserves still sloshing around the financial system, has the Fed really tightened enough for risk assets to notice (and slide)? Here opinions remain mixed, although what is clear - at least judging by president Trump's belligerent attitude toward Fed Chair Powell - is that the Fed is now willing to sacrifice the stock market and risk assets if it means to get ahead of the curve on its two core mandates: inflation and unemployment.

What does that mean in practical terms? According to a note released by Goldman late last week, the Fed is nowhere near done yet - either based on its dot plot or certainly more dovish market expectations - and "needs to generate a significant tightening in financial conditions to slow the economy to its potential growth pace sooner rather than later." The bad news - for stock bulls - is that "this will require delivering significantly more hikes than priced in the curve."

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...iced-heres-why
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Old 10-23-18, 07:54 AM
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Get ready for the shit to hit the fan today guys. DOW futures are down almost 450 points, gonna be a wild ride.

If you want free money invest in gold right now. Doesn't matter if it's gold mining companies, gold ETF's, or physical bullion (not practical for most). Gold has been seriously held down because of what amounts to a 10 year bull run in the US stock market. That bull run is now over. Gold's bull run has begun.

DOW, Nasdaq, and the S&P are about to move below their 200 day moving average. For those that don't understand TA just realize that falling below the 200 day MA is NOT good. It's a sell signal for full time traders.

Bottom line, you don't need to fear a bear market. You simply hedge against it. Gold has a scheduled trip for the moon. Don't miss the rocket ship...

Don't say I didn't give you a heads up. Chuck you got any gold ETF's in your portfolio? This is gonna be me in 3 months...

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Old 10-23-18, 07:43 PM
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Well people simply aren’t borrowed anywhere near as uch as they were back then, at least in the UK. So I don’t see the same situation
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Old 10-24-18, 04:09 PM
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Dow falls 600 points and wipes out 2018 gains

Stocks ended sharply lower Wednesday, as losses accelerated into the close and put both the Dow and the S&P 500 into the red for the year, and the Nasdaq into correction territory.

Upbeat results from Boeing Co. were credited with briefly pushing the Dow higher in early morning trading, before investors took an increasingly defensive stance, fleeing for the relative safety of utilities and consumer nondurable shares.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...out-2018-10-24
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Old 10-30-18, 06:21 AM
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If you weren’t yet worried about the stock market, you should be now

Most FAANG stocks are in a bear market and economically sensitive sectors have sold off dramatically

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if...now-2018-10-30
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Old 11-02-18, 09:27 AM
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The next pullback will not be anywhere near as devastating as the 2008 market crash. We could see a 20% pullback in 2019 and a possible bear market for a year or two but nothing like 2008.
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Old 11-02-18, 12:02 PM
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The next pullback will not be anywhere near as devastating as the 2008 market crash. We could see a 20% pullback in 2019 and a possible bear market for a year or two but nothing like 2008.
2008 wasn't even that bad next to what's coming. Sub prime mortgages are no longer a problem but debt is increasing and home sales are declining. The middle class is dieing and new car sales are down substantially. World banks are buying gold in record numbers. The world markets are in decline and the only thing holding our markets up are the FAANG stocks which are now showing strong weakness. All the signs are there for a recession after a 10 year bull run.

We can't just keep printing money backed by nothing and kicking the can further and further down the road.

Apple will no longer report iPhone numbers

Apple announced Thursday night that it would no longer be reporting iPhone sales numbers— or sales numbers for any of its products — on future earnings calls. Investors hated it: AAPL stock tanked 7% on the news in after-hours trading and was still down 5% in premarket trading before the New York exchanges opened Friday.

https://www.businessinsider.com/appl...umbers-2018-11
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Old 11-03-18, 02:39 PM
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We’re doing great I the UK, government have just stopped their spending cuts
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Old 11-03-18, 05:33 PM
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We’re doing great I the UK, government have just stopped their spending cuts
Haha no your not. Housing bubble in London is starting to hurt bad.

And in case you don't understand how the world works.... The us market runs the show. If we take a tumble you tumble harder. What do you think made Hitler so popular? The great recession in America hit Germany twice as hard. People got desperate and a crazy fella named Adolf Rose to power.



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Old 11-03-18, 06:39 PM
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We’re going it alone, even out of Europe
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Old 11-04-18, 07:37 AM
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We’re going it alone, even out of Europe
You don't have the resources or economy to do that. You need a major trade partner. If it's not the EU it has to be big brother USA.

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Old 11-11-18, 11:29 AM
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A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty. That’s 50 Million Apartments

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s mantra that homes should be for living in is falling on deaf ears, with tens of millions of apartments and houses standing empty across the country.

Soon-to-be-published research will show roughly 22 percent of China’s urban housing stock is unoccupied, according to Professor Gan Li, who runs the main nationwide study. That adds up to more than 50 million empty homes, he said.

The nightmare scenario for policy makers is that owners of unoccupied dwellings rush to sell if cracks start appearing in the property market, causing prices to spiral. The latest data, from a survey in 2017, also suggests Beijing’s efforts to curb property speculation -- considered by leaders a key threat to financial and social stability -- are coming up short.

“There’s no other single country with such a high vacancy rate,” said Gan, of Chengdu’s Southwestern University of Finance and Economics. “Should any crack emerge in the property market, the homes to be offloaded will hit China like a flood.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ion-apartments
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Old 11-15-18, 07:42 AM
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We’re doing great in the UK
Ohh reeally?

Pound Plummets as U.K.'s May Faces Political Crisis

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/po...ubt-2018-11-15



I have zero doubt if Briton could do it all over again they would vote no to Brexit. You guys are too small of an Island with little resource. Not sure why you thought this was a good idea. You absolutely need the EU.
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Old 11-17-18, 10:27 AM
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Pound's Fate Could Worsen as Investors See Multitude of Risks

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s?srnd=premium
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Old 11-19-18, 01:35 PM
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Markets are crashing and Bitcoin is crashing harder. lmao. thank the lord for stable coins.
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Old 11-20-18, 05:42 AM
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Bitcoin down 16% in like 2 days
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Old 11-20-18, 08:16 AM
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Bitcoin down 16% in like 2 days
It went from $6500 to $4500 in 6 days. Pretty crazy but absolutely needed. It held the 6k line all year and nobody bought at that price. Just like a product on a shelf, if it's not selling it needs a price cut. For those people who bought at the top (20K) and are still holding... my heart goes out to you. Holy Fuck. But for day traders this is huge opportunity. Day traders don't care how far it drops because it means huge volatility. Volatility is what's been lacking the last 3 months in bitcoin. It was just going sideways at 6500. Hardly any money to be made. The opportunity is here now. Massive swings up and down has me fucken salivating.

Side note: I've been trying my best to change traps perspective on his "hold" mentality. He's coming around but he's still fucken bleeding funds. Holding only works in a bull market. That shit ended in Feb 2017.
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Old 11-21-18, 12:52 AM
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It went from $6500 to $4500 in 6 days. Pretty crazy but absolutely needed. It held the 6k line all year and nobody bought at that price. Just like a product on a shelf, if it's not selling it needs a price cut. For those people who bought at the top (20K) and are still holding... my heart goes out to you. Holy Fuck. But for day traders this is huge opportunity. Day traders don't care how far it drops because it means huge volatility. Volatility is what's been lacking the last 3 months in bitcoin. It was just going sideways at 6500. Hardly any money to be made. The opportunity is here now. Massive swings up and down has me fucken salivating.

Side note: I've been trying my best to change traps perspective on his "hold" mentality. He's coming around but he's still fucken bleeding funds. Holding only works in a bull market. That shit ended in Feb 2017.
I actually just use it for certain purchases and just have a small amount in there for this specifically. I went to make an order and saw a large chunk had disappeared lol
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Old 11-21-18, 09:46 AM
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I actually just use it for certain purchases and just have a small amount in there for this specifically. I went to make an order and saw a large chunk had disappeared lol
Even as it crashes there is huge money making opportunity. When a stock or crypto crashes there is always surges back up as relief rallies as it crashes long term.

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Old 11-27-18, 08:01 PM
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just a heads up for those following stocks and particularly those interested in hedges against a falling stock market. it's an ETF, the stock ticker is SQQQ. In simple terms it shorts the stock market aka bets against it. while the stock market falls and people get wrecked you profit.

if your interested here's the details.

https://www.investopedia.com/article...rt-qqq-etf.asp

the chart on this thing is epic. because it does the opposite of the stock market it's basically been in a free fall since 2011. the chart below is the weekly chart so each candle = 1 week. as you can see big volume is just now starting to come in at the bottom of the chart. this is the definition of "catching the bottom". this etf has the potential to easily 5x in the next few months alone.

there has basically been zero interest in this ETF as you can tell by the volume. as the stock market has been in a 10 year bullrun nobody has been interested in betting against it. but the last 2 months has seen 10x volume come in. do your own research guys but i'm telling you, this is one to fucken watch. the FAANG stocks have been a large part of the bull run and those FAANG stocks are showing huge cracks..



You can do the same thing with crude oil btw... the stock ticker for that ETF short is DWT.
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Old 11-28-18, 05:52 PM
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https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...ays-since-2016

Tapatalk sucks balls
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Old 11-28-18, 07:01 PM
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Temp pop up because the fed backed down from Trump. There is a reason rates need to be increased. Nothing has changed.

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