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Tough day yesterday as i went 1-5. Very easily could have been 4-2 with a couple of bounces my way.
-$450 for the day
+$530 for the week
sats plays and analysis are:
Detroit/Cleveland OVER 9
I like this better than yesterday and it came in yesterday. Maroth can be good but he allowed 13 hits and 2 walks in 11 innings. Davis was not so good at 13 hits and 7 walks in just 12 innings. In another month, I will be able to tell you why these hits, walks, and innings stats are so important. By then, my total system will have enough data to make these decisions for me.
Montreal (+190)
I normally play the +1 1/2 runs in these situations but the Expos are trotting out a pitcher that looks very strong. Patterson went 7 innings and allowed damn near nothing. Only 2 hits and he had 6 k's. No runs. Millwood is a solid pitcher but I think I can catch him here. He has allowed 12 hits in 12 innings pitched and 2 walks. Forget all the Montreal can't hit stuff. They may not have to. Worth a shot.
Yankees/ Boston OVER 8 1/2
I'm sure you would tell me to have my head examined for betting an over with Mussina and Schilling on the mound because of the past years. But this isn't the past years. it's this year and And neither pitcher has been very strong. Curt has gone 14 iinings and allowed 12 hits with 5 earned runs. Mussina has been awful. 15 innings and allowed 26 hits, 6 walks, 14 earned runs and is holding a huge 8.22 ERA. I like the bats here.
Colorado (+160)
Normally I say the Rocks are a bad play on the road but Estes is really pitching well. He has gone 14 innings and allowed just 5 hits. He did have 5 walks in there and that concerns me a little but he has only given 2 earned runs so far total. Marquis has gone 11 innings with 12 hits and 3 walks. He has given 7 earned runs in those 11 innings and that's bad. Did I mention that Estes is 2-0 and both wins were on the road?
LA/SF OVER 9
Reuter is struggling with 13 hits, 5 walks, and 6 earned runs in just 11 innings. Lima is my favorite over pitcher of all time. This guy has made me so much money I have a plaque dedicating my deck to him. 4 innings of relief and he still allowed 4 hits and 2 earned runs. The ball carries better in the day at Pac Bell Park. Barry might be off but it won't matter.
Tampa Bay
Schowenweiss went 6 innings allowing 7 hits and 4 walks. Not very good. Zambrano is 3-0 and has gone 17 innings allowing 15 hits and yes he has given 10 walks. But he has beaten Balt and the Yankees twice. I think he can handle the ChiSox at home for this tiny chalk.
Florida
I don't look at whose hot and who's not when it comes to capping. Trends like that don't mean anything to me and it's the quickest way to get beat in baseball. That's my opinion but you don't have to agree with me. What I do think you will agree with is that Ortiz puts too many runners on base. He is 0-2 with a high 6.75 ERA. He has allowed 15 hits and 7 earned runs in just 9 innings. He always does allow runners they just scored tons of runs for him last year. He faces Beckett is going as well as anyone in baseball. He has a microscopic 0.64 ERA and has allowed only 6 hits in 14 innings of work this year. Did you see where he has 20 k's so far? That's amazing. For those of you that love trends and hot teams they don't get any hotter right now than Florida.
Arizona/San Diego OVER 8 1/2
I will do this again today. Webb has allowed 12 hits and 6 walks in 12 innings. Valdez has been pitching in relief and allowed 5 hits and 2 earned runs in just 2 innings of work. I think they score runs this time.
Oakland/Anaheim OVER 8 1/2
Mulder has been pretty good at 14 innings allowing 11 hits and 3 walks. But the Angels can hit. Add in that Washburn has been terrible at 18 hits and 10 earned runs in just 10 innnings and the over should come home safely. Before you ask why not the A's ML, I don't happen to like Mulder. I think he puts too many over the heart of the plate about belt high. I could be wrong but I'll take my chances.
Texas/Seattle OVER 9
Lewis should be bet over in all his starts this year. I said that earlier. He has given 10 hits and 9 walks in just 10 innings. Moyer has been bad. he has allowed 16 hits, 4 walks, and 10 earned runs in 10 innings pitched. Let's see if Seattle can do something with what they are given. they had 3 walks and 9 hits last night and didn't score a run which is quite remarkable. Tonight they break out against Lewis. Moyer will help.
-$450 for the day
+$530 for the week
sats plays and analysis are:
Detroit/Cleveland OVER 9
I like this better than yesterday and it came in yesterday. Maroth can be good but he allowed 13 hits and 2 walks in 11 innings. Davis was not so good at 13 hits and 7 walks in just 12 innings. In another month, I will be able to tell you why these hits, walks, and innings stats are so important. By then, my total system will have enough data to make these decisions for me.
Montreal (+190)
I normally play the +1 1/2 runs in these situations but the Expos are trotting out a pitcher that looks very strong. Patterson went 7 innings and allowed damn near nothing. Only 2 hits and he had 6 k's. No runs. Millwood is a solid pitcher but I think I can catch him here. He has allowed 12 hits in 12 innings pitched and 2 walks. Forget all the Montreal can't hit stuff. They may not have to. Worth a shot.
Yankees/ Boston OVER 8 1/2
I'm sure you would tell me to have my head examined for betting an over with Mussina and Schilling on the mound because of the past years. But this isn't the past years. it's this year and And neither pitcher has been very strong. Curt has gone 14 iinings and allowed 12 hits with 5 earned runs. Mussina has been awful. 15 innings and allowed 26 hits, 6 walks, 14 earned runs and is holding a huge 8.22 ERA. I like the bats here.
Colorado (+160)
Normally I say the Rocks are a bad play on the road but Estes is really pitching well. He has gone 14 innings and allowed just 5 hits. He did have 5 walks in there and that concerns me a little but he has only given 2 earned runs so far total. Marquis has gone 11 innings with 12 hits and 3 walks. He has given 7 earned runs in those 11 innings and that's bad. Did I mention that Estes is 2-0 and both wins were on the road?
LA/SF OVER 9
Reuter is struggling with 13 hits, 5 walks, and 6 earned runs in just 11 innings. Lima is my favorite over pitcher of all time. This guy has made me so much money I have a plaque dedicating my deck to him. 4 innings of relief and he still allowed 4 hits and 2 earned runs. The ball carries better in the day at Pac Bell Park. Barry might be off but it won't matter.
Tampa Bay
Schowenweiss went 6 innings allowing 7 hits and 4 walks. Not very good. Zambrano is 3-0 and has gone 17 innings allowing 15 hits and yes he has given 10 walks. But he has beaten Balt and the Yankees twice. I think he can handle the ChiSox at home for this tiny chalk.
Florida
I don't look at whose hot and who's not when it comes to capping. Trends like that don't mean anything to me and it's the quickest way to get beat in baseball. That's my opinion but you don't have to agree with me. What I do think you will agree with is that Ortiz puts too many runners on base. He is 0-2 with a high 6.75 ERA. He has allowed 15 hits and 7 earned runs in just 9 innings. He always does allow runners they just scored tons of runs for him last year. He faces Beckett is going as well as anyone in baseball. He has a microscopic 0.64 ERA and has allowed only 6 hits in 14 innings of work this year. Did you see where he has 20 k's so far? That's amazing. For those of you that love trends and hot teams they don't get any hotter right now than Florida.
Arizona/San Diego OVER 8 1/2
I will do this again today. Webb has allowed 12 hits and 6 walks in 12 innings. Valdez has been pitching in relief and allowed 5 hits and 2 earned runs in just 2 innings of work. I think they score runs this time.
Oakland/Anaheim OVER 8 1/2
Mulder has been pretty good at 14 innings allowing 11 hits and 3 walks. But the Angels can hit. Add in that Washburn has been terrible at 18 hits and 10 earned runs in just 10 innnings and the over should come home safely. Before you ask why not the A's ML, I don't happen to like Mulder. I think he puts too many over the heart of the plate about belt high. I could be wrong but I'll take my chances.
Texas/Seattle OVER 9
Lewis should be bet over in all his starts this year. I said that earlier. He has given 10 hits and 9 walks in just 10 innings. Moyer has been bad. he has allowed 16 hits, 4 walks, and 10 earned runs in 10 innings pitched. Let's see if Seattle can do something with what they are given. they had 3 walks and 9 hits last night and didn't score a run which is quite remarkable. Tonight they break out against Lewis. Moyer will help.
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