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BERNARD HOPKINS vs. OSCAR DELAHOYA
Hopkins, 39, is 18-1-1 , 12 ko's in title fights (with 1 no contest). He broke Carlos Monzon's record for middleweight title defenses, 14, in 2002. Joe Louis, with 25 successful defenses of his heavyweight title, holds the record for all weight classes. Archie Moore, at age 47, is the oldest champ to defend a title. He decisioned Giulio Rinaldi on June 10, 1961 to hold onto his light heavyweight belt. Hopkins hasn't lost a fight in over 11 years (5/22/93 L 12 Roy Jones). He's fought his entire 48 fight, nearly 16-year career at middleweight. Hopkins actually lost his pro debut-at light heavyweight, he's 44-1-1 with 1 no contest since. At 6'1", he's about 3 inches taller than delaHoya, who began his 12 year career at 133 lbs, winning his first title at 130 lbs.
Oscar's fought once at middleweight, this past June, winning a controversial decision over the unknown Felix Sturm. Unmotivated (except for the prospect of earning $10 million as part of a $40 mill, two-fight package-the payoff, a potential $30 million payoff to risk it all vs. Hopkins) and out-of-shape, he was outlanded 234-188 by Sturm, the happy warrior, who seemed to enjoy every minute in the ring with the Golden Boy. Sturm landed a whopping 52% of his power shots vs. Oscar, who came out blazing, averaging 85 punches per round over the first 4 frames. He stood toe-to-toe with Sturm, and in doing so allowed the long-armed, counter punching Sturm to landed over 50% of his power shots in 7 of the 12 rounds, including 71% in round 11. That was then, this is now. Oscar looked in better shape just several weeks after the Sturm fight and will certainly be in the kind of condition to hopefully ride his bicycle without any flat tires for 12 effective rounds vs. Hopkins.
Hopkins' biggest win by far came on September 29, 2001, when he ko'd Felix Trinidad in the 12th round before a nearly old out, Trinidad-crazed Madison Square Garden crowd. The fight was postponed two weeks following the September 11 tragedy. Hopkins went back home to Philly, Trinidad chose to stay in New York rather than travel home to Puerto Rico. In Hopkins' other big fight, he was outboxed by Jones, who landed 49% of his power shots vs. Bernard, who didn't (or couldn't at the time) pressure Jones enough, averaging 56 punches per round. He's a better fighter today. Jones landed 206 total punches vs. Hopkins with a bad right hand (17 per round), the most landed against Bernard in 12 fights tracked by CompuBox. Hopkins can take away an opponent's jab. Those 12 opponents landed an average of just 3 jabs per round (14%) and just 26% of their total punches. In fact, no fighter has landed more than 8 jabs in a round vs. Bernard. They did land 36% of their power punches- only seven per round however. One punch at-a-time. Take away the jab, take away the rhythm. Oscar landed 212 jabs over 12 rounds vs. Miguel A. Gonzalez. Land the jab?
Back to Trinidad- a common opponent. Amazingly, Hopkins and delaHoya threw and landed near identical total punches vs. Tito. Hopkins landed 260 of 653 (40%), Oscar, 263 of 648 (41%) in his 1999 loss. Hopkins landed just 45 more power punches than Oscar vs. Tito, an average of 4 more per round, so who's the harder puncher? Oscar landed 97 more total punches than Trinidad, bolstered by a 101 edge in jab connects. Tito managed just 27 punches per round vs. Hopkins, but did land 46% of his power shots- one punch at a time. Trinidad averaged just 10 jabs thrown per round, landing 3.
DelaHoya faded down the stretch vs. Trinidad and vs. Mosley, in the rematch. His punch output didn't drop off, instead, he lost power, and in turn, Trinidad and Mosley's power punch output increased. Oscar couldn't hold them off with any ammo of his own. Trinidad landed in single digits in power punches in each of the first 8 rounds vs. Oscar, landing an average of 6 landed, 19 thrown. As Oscar searched for his second wind, Trinidad doubled his power output, landing 19 of 42 non-jabs in rounds 9 thru 12. Ditto vs. Mosley II, but not as dramatic an increase for Mosley. Shane landed single digits in power shots in 6 of the first 8 rounds, averaging 15 thrown, 7 connected. As Oscar tired in rounds 9 thru 12, Mosley upped his power totals to l1 landed, 26 thrown, hurting delaHoya several times down the stretch. On the other hand, Hopkins got stronger vs. Trinidad as the fight progressed. He averaged 43 punches per round over the first eight- then went into overdrive, averaging 63 per round the next four rounds, including 71 total punches in round 9 and 86 in the 10th, his high output for the fight.
Oscar's got to fight the perfect fight, trust his increased conditioning and focus and hope Hopkins ages in the ring. He needs to stay consistent with the jab, throwing 25-30 per round- he needs to land it as well, not an easy task as mentioned above. He's got to stay off the ropes and try to frustrate Hopkins in the middle of the ring. Getting Hopkins' attention early with a solid right cross and left hook or two may not be a bad idea either. Jones landed 49% of his power shots and those 12 opponents landed 36% of their non-jabs vs. Hopkins. Remember Ali nailed Foreman in round one and Leonard put some leather on Hagler early on just to let them know they were in a fight, not a track meet. Oscar figures to win the early rounds as Hopkins gets into gear. A faster Hopkins start could negate any Oscar edge early, but Hopkins then risks tiring late, when he figures to come on. Should Hopkins fall behind, he can't force the action and walk into punches. The feeling is he's too crafty for that and appears to really believe this is his night to shine- and shine he will, Hopkins by unanimous decision, dominating the late rounds.
Hopkins, 39, is 18-1-1 , 12 ko's in title fights (with 1 no contest). He broke Carlos Monzon's record for middleweight title defenses, 14, in 2002. Joe Louis, with 25 successful defenses of his heavyweight title, holds the record for all weight classes. Archie Moore, at age 47, is the oldest champ to defend a title. He decisioned Giulio Rinaldi on June 10, 1961 to hold onto his light heavyweight belt. Hopkins hasn't lost a fight in over 11 years (5/22/93 L 12 Roy Jones). He's fought his entire 48 fight, nearly 16-year career at middleweight. Hopkins actually lost his pro debut-at light heavyweight, he's 44-1-1 with 1 no contest since. At 6'1", he's about 3 inches taller than delaHoya, who began his 12 year career at 133 lbs, winning his first title at 130 lbs.
Oscar's fought once at middleweight, this past June, winning a controversial decision over the unknown Felix Sturm. Unmotivated (except for the prospect of earning $10 million as part of a $40 mill, two-fight package-the payoff, a potential $30 million payoff to risk it all vs. Hopkins) and out-of-shape, he was outlanded 234-188 by Sturm, the happy warrior, who seemed to enjoy every minute in the ring with the Golden Boy. Sturm landed a whopping 52% of his power shots vs. Oscar, who came out blazing, averaging 85 punches per round over the first 4 frames. He stood toe-to-toe with Sturm, and in doing so allowed the long-armed, counter punching Sturm to landed over 50% of his power shots in 7 of the 12 rounds, including 71% in round 11. That was then, this is now. Oscar looked in better shape just several weeks after the Sturm fight and will certainly be in the kind of condition to hopefully ride his bicycle without any flat tires for 12 effective rounds vs. Hopkins.
Hopkins' biggest win by far came on September 29, 2001, when he ko'd Felix Trinidad in the 12th round before a nearly old out, Trinidad-crazed Madison Square Garden crowd. The fight was postponed two weeks following the September 11 tragedy. Hopkins went back home to Philly, Trinidad chose to stay in New York rather than travel home to Puerto Rico. In Hopkins' other big fight, he was outboxed by Jones, who landed 49% of his power shots vs. Bernard, who didn't (or couldn't at the time) pressure Jones enough, averaging 56 punches per round. He's a better fighter today. Jones landed 206 total punches vs. Hopkins with a bad right hand (17 per round), the most landed against Bernard in 12 fights tracked by CompuBox. Hopkins can take away an opponent's jab. Those 12 opponents landed an average of just 3 jabs per round (14%) and just 26% of their total punches. In fact, no fighter has landed more than 8 jabs in a round vs. Bernard. They did land 36% of their power punches- only seven per round however. One punch at-a-time. Take away the jab, take away the rhythm. Oscar landed 212 jabs over 12 rounds vs. Miguel A. Gonzalez. Land the jab?
Back to Trinidad- a common opponent. Amazingly, Hopkins and delaHoya threw and landed near identical total punches vs. Tito. Hopkins landed 260 of 653 (40%), Oscar, 263 of 648 (41%) in his 1999 loss. Hopkins landed just 45 more power punches than Oscar vs. Tito, an average of 4 more per round, so who's the harder puncher? Oscar landed 97 more total punches than Trinidad, bolstered by a 101 edge in jab connects. Tito managed just 27 punches per round vs. Hopkins, but did land 46% of his power shots- one punch at a time. Trinidad averaged just 10 jabs thrown per round, landing 3.
DelaHoya faded down the stretch vs. Trinidad and vs. Mosley, in the rematch. His punch output didn't drop off, instead, he lost power, and in turn, Trinidad and Mosley's power punch output increased. Oscar couldn't hold them off with any ammo of his own. Trinidad landed in single digits in power punches in each of the first 8 rounds vs. Oscar, landing an average of 6 landed, 19 thrown. As Oscar searched for his second wind, Trinidad doubled his power output, landing 19 of 42 non-jabs in rounds 9 thru 12. Ditto vs. Mosley II, but not as dramatic an increase for Mosley. Shane landed single digits in power shots in 6 of the first 8 rounds, averaging 15 thrown, 7 connected. As Oscar tired in rounds 9 thru 12, Mosley upped his power totals to l1 landed, 26 thrown, hurting delaHoya several times down the stretch. On the other hand, Hopkins got stronger vs. Trinidad as the fight progressed. He averaged 43 punches per round over the first eight- then went into overdrive, averaging 63 per round the next four rounds, including 71 total punches in round 9 and 86 in the 10th, his high output for the fight.
Oscar's got to fight the perfect fight, trust his increased conditioning and focus and hope Hopkins ages in the ring. He needs to stay consistent with the jab, throwing 25-30 per round- he needs to land it as well, not an easy task as mentioned above. He's got to stay off the ropes and try to frustrate Hopkins in the middle of the ring. Getting Hopkins' attention early with a solid right cross and left hook or two may not be a bad idea either. Jones landed 49% of his power shots and those 12 opponents landed 36% of their non-jabs vs. Hopkins. Remember Ali nailed Foreman in round one and Leonard put some leather on Hagler early on just to let them know they were in a fight, not a track meet. Oscar figures to win the early rounds as Hopkins gets into gear. A faster Hopkins start could negate any Oscar edge early, but Hopkins then risks tiring late, when he figures to come on. Should Hopkins fall behind, he can't force the action and walk into punches. The feeling is he's too crafty for that and appears to really believe this is his night to shine- and shine he will, Hopkins by unanimous decision, dominating the late rounds.
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