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Pittsburgh Steelers -6
The Cleveland Browns are coming off a big win over the Washington Redskins. They head on the road, where they are 0-2, to face a very good Steelers team. The Browns average 243.5 total yards per game on the road and will struggle with all the blitzing Pittsburgh will send their way. The only thing the Browns have going for them on the road is their running game which averages 5.3 yards per carry. However, the Steelers allow only 99.0 yards rushing per game which is usually good enough to hold opponents to 1 TD. In the air, Jeff Garcia has been horrid on the road, averaging only 113.5 passing yards per game. He is up against a Steelers defense that averages 2 INT's per home games and that allows only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. The Browns average 16.5 penalties on the road which has cost them an average of 145 yards per game. The Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last six when the Over/Under line is 37 or lower. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last five after winning as an underdog. In October, they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine versus an opponent off a double digit win.
The Pittsburgh Steelers may have found a gem when Tommy Maddox went down with an injury. I love the way this kid Ben Roethsliberger has played and I expect him to get better by the game. The Steelers don't have history behind when hosting the Browns but I think they break the spell today. The Browns defense allows a whopping 415.5 total yards per road game and the Steelers should be all over that. Duce Staley will have a mediocre game as they Browns don't allow much on the ground but it's a different story in the air. Pittsburgh averages 6.3 yards per pass attempt at home and are up against the Browns secondary that allows an incredible 9.5 yards per pass attempt. Do you remember what Kurt Warner and Vinny T did to these clowns? The Pittsburgh O-Line has been impressive and I'm looking for a blowout win. For fun, the Steelers are 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 where the O/U was smaller than 37 points. They are also 9-2 ATS in the last 11 seasons when playing in Game #5 of the year. They Steelers are an incredible 16-1-3 ATS in their last 21 after beating a divisional opponent. Did I mention they were 20-7-1 ATS versus opponents coming off a SU home win? Go Steel!
Detroit Lions-Atlanta Falcons 'Over' 40.5
The Detroit Lions lost RB Kevin Jones for a few weeks with a high ankle sprain. Thing is, he is still a rookie and was still learning the game. Now Bryson comes as the featured back and he is averaging 6.9 yards per carry on 9 attempts this season. I am not too concerned about the Lions running in this one because Atlanta's run-defense allows only 62.8 rushing yards per game. I do like Joey Harrington to have a big day against the Falcons defense that allows 6.7 yards per pass attempt and an opposing QB 67.3% completion rate. The Lions will most likely go down a few TD's at some point and that's when I expect Harrington to drive this offense to a few TD's of their own. The 'Over' is 13-3 in Steve Mariucci's last 16 games versus an opponent off a SU underdog win. The 'Over' is also 3-0 in the last three meetings between these teams.
The Atlanta Falcons are off to a 4-0 start this season and Michael Vick is showing why he will one day he could easily be the NFL MVP. The Falcons have two big wins at home this year, running the Rams and Cardinals in weeks 2 and 3. Vick has been on his game passing wise and has also rushed for 222 yards. He is up against a severely depleted Lions secondary that allows 277 passing yards per game. The Falcons average 6.9 yards per attempt, while the Lions allow 7.5 yards per pass attempt. The Lions defense has been decent against the run this year but I don't think they can stop the Vick-Dunn duo that averages 5.1 yards per carry. The Falcons average 174.2 rushing yards per game and will control this game from start to end.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
This is the time to take the Bucs. Tampa Bay is 0-4 this season and you can bet your bottom dollar John Gruden will do everything it takes to not go 0-5. The Bucs average only 274.5 total yards per game but I think we will see an improvement in this game as they face a New Orleans defense that allows 390.3 total yards per game. Brad Johnson is out as QB and Chris Simms is in. Simms played earlier in the year passing for 175 yards on 21-of-33 completions. He showed many critics that he can move the Bucs down the field, but reaching the end zone was a problem. I love the fact that RB Michael Pittman is back because the Saints allow 159.5 rushing yards per game. Simms will be working against a defense that averages less than one INT per game and that allows 7.2 yards per pass attempt. QB changes like this usually help desperate teams. Bucs might win this SU. The Bucs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 when playing on the road after back-to-back losses. The underdog in this series is 0-4 ATS in the last four and the John Gruden is 11-3 ATS in his last 14 games off a non-conference loss.
The New Orleans Saints are back to their usual tricks and are coming off a blowout loss to the Cardinals last Sunday. Aaron Brooks had a horrible game and I don't expect things to get easier against Gruden and company. The Saints average 6.7 yards per pass attempt this season but the Bucs allow a miniscule 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Opposing QB's are completing their passes at only 50.1% versus the Bucs. Since Deuce McCallister got hurt, things have not been the same for New Orleans. They average only 77.5 rushing yards per game and only 3.8 yards per carry. The Tampa defense has been mediocre against the run but I can't see the Saints doing much on the ground.
Here are a few more reasons to fade the Saints this week. They are 2-10 as Home Favourites off SU & ATS losses when facing an opponent off a SU & ATS loss. They are also 1-16 ATS as a division home favourite of less than 5 points. In October, the Saints are 1-11 ATS at home versus division opponents and 2-8-1 ATS versus division opponents off a straight up loss. In divisional play, the Saints are 1-15 ATS as Home Favourites of less than 5 points and 2-16 ATS as a home favourite versus an opponent coming off a loss. Now for coach Haslett...He is 1-5 ATS at home off a Double Digit straight up loss and 4-10 ATS at home versus an opponent off a straight up loss.
Buffalo Bills +7
The Bills are 0-3 to start the year (what else is new) and should really be 10 point underdogs in this one. Drew Bledsoe leads an offense that averages only 274 total yards per game. Drew Bledsoe and company know that they have to win this game to have a chance at the playoffs and they usually play well following games with the Patriots. Troy Vincent is out for a few weeks but that doesn't concern me. The Jets have a lot going for them on the ground which is good news for the Bills who allow only 85 yards rushing per game. I expect a huge day from Travis Henry who is bound to have a breakout game this season. The Bills are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following the New England game and 5-1 ATS off their last six division losses.
The New York Jets escaped Miami with a 17-9 win last Sunday. They are now 3-0 on the season and looking pretty damn good. However, Curtis Martin will run into problems this week against a Bills defense that allows only 85 rushing yards per game. I think the Jets can score quite easily on the Bills but also have a feeling that the Bills will score just as much and keep it close. Listen to these numbers. The Jets are 1-8 ATS off back-to-back spread wins versus an opponent off a double-digit straight up loss (Bills lost 31-17 last week). The Jets are also 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 as favourites of more than 6 points and 1-7 ATS as the home favourite off back-to-back wins versus an opponent coming off a loss. Those are some crazy numbers and I'll take the Bills.
San Francisco 49ers -1
The easy thing to do in this one would be to go against the 49ers right? I mean they sucked against St. Louis and Arizona is coming off a huge win over New Orleans. Let me tell you, it's not that simple.
The Arizona Cardinals shocked many last week by blowing out the Saints at home. Listen to the 'at home' part. I don't trust the Cardinals playing on the road and I really don't trust them in a divisional road game. Sure Josh McCown has played well but the Cards have lost both their road games. On the road, the Cards average only 250 total yards per game while the SF defense allows only 293.5 total yards per home game. The running game seems to be non-existent when they leave home and that will cause problems in this game. The SF defense is better at home and I expect some improvements from the Rams game. Since 1998, the Cardinals are 0-5 lifetime when playing in San Fran.
The San Francisco 49ers are 0-4 on the season but that is about to change. They nearly beat Atlanta in week 1 and are coming off a bad loss to the Rams. The 49ers are going to come out hard in this game and I believe QB Tim Rattay will be much better than last game. I mean, how can you run an offense properly when you are already down 14-0? The Arizona defense is weak on the road this season and allows a whopping 6.2 yards per carry on the ground. Kevin Barlow should benefit from this as he is looking for that breakout game. The 49ers also average 270.0 yards passing per home game and face a defense that allows 6.7 yards per pass attempt. For fun, the 49ers are 5-0 ATS and SU when hosting Arizona and are 7-1 ATS off a SU loss versus an opponent off a SU Win in October. Time to join the win column boys.
Baltimore Ravens PICK
The Ravens are coming off a 27-24 loss on Monday Night Football and believe me when I say they don't want to lose another. The Ravens average 148.5 yards rushing per game and are up against a Washington defense that allows only 59.5 rushing yards per game. Thing is, the Skins D has yet to run into a decent RB and expect that to change this week. Jamal Lewis might not play due to suspension and if he is out, so is my Ravens play. Kyle Boller made too many mistakes on Monday Night but I think he will have a better game on Sunday. Sure Washington allows only 193.8 passing yards per game but they also allow opposing QB's to complete 62% of their passes. Boller has only thrown two picks all year and has shown signs of maturing in the NFL. Get this, the Ravens are 7-1-1 ATS as a 'PICK' or underdog in their 1st non-division road game of the season.
The Washington Redskins are a well coached team but I still wonder sometimes what Joe Gibbs is thinking. His clock management skills are poor and so is his play calling at times. The Skins are 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 home games and have not shown any signs of offensive improvement since the season began. Opposing QB's are completing an average of only 55% of their passes against the Ravens defense and that same defense averages 1.3 interceptions per game. The Redskins only win came against Tampa Bay as they lost their other games to mediocre teams from Cleveland, Dallas and the Giants. The Ravens are in another class of teams and should win this one hands down.
The Ravens average 13.2 yards per punt return while the Redskins average only 6.9 yards per punt return. In a PICK game, special teams mean a lot and I can see the Ravens pulling through for us with a big punt return for 6. The Redskins also lose an average of 1.5 fumbles per game which is quite incredible.
The Cleveland Browns are coming off a big win over the Washington Redskins. They head on the road, where they are 0-2, to face a very good Steelers team. The Browns average 243.5 total yards per game on the road and will struggle with all the blitzing Pittsburgh will send their way. The only thing the Browns have going for them on the road is their running game which averages 5.3 yards per carry. However, the Steelers allow only 99.0 yards rushing per game which is usually good enough to hold opponents to 1 TD. In the air, Jeff Garcia has been horrid on the road, averaging only 113.5 passing yards per game. He is up against a Steelers defense that averages 2 INT's per home games and that allows only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. The Browns average 16.5 penalties on the road which has cost them an average of 145 yards per game. The Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last six when the Over/Under line is 37 or lower. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last five after winning as an underdog. In October, they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine versus an opponent off a double digit win.
The Pittsburgh Steelers may have found a gem when Tommy Maddox went down with an injury. I love the way this kid Ben Roethsliberger has played and I expect him to get better by the game. The Steelers don't have history behind when hosting the Browns but I think they break the spell today. The Browns defense allows a whopping 415.5 total yards per road game and the Steelers should be all over that. Duce Staley will have a mediocre game as they Browns don't allow much on the ground but it's a different story in the air. Pittsburgh averages 6.3 yards per pass attempt at home and are up against the Browns secondary that allows an incredible 9.5 yards per pass attempt. Do you remember what Kurt Warner and Vinny T did to these clowns? The Pittsburgh O-Line has been impressive and I'm looking for a blowout win. For fun, the Steelers are 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 where the O/U was smaller than 37 points. They are also 9-2 ATS in the last 11 seasons when playing in Game #5 of the year. They Steelers are an incredible 16-1-3 ATS in their last 21 after beating a divisional opponent. Did I mention they were 20-7-1 ATS versus opponents coming off a SU home win? Go Steel!
Detroit Lions-Atlanta Falcons 'Over' 40.5
The Detroit Lions lost RB Kevin Jones for a few weeks with a high ankle sprain. Thing is, he is still a rookie and was still learning the game. Now Bryson comes as the featured back and he is averaging 6.9 yards per carry on 9 attempts this season. I am not too concerned about the Lions running in this one because Atlanta's run-defense allows only 62.8 rushing yards per game. I do like Joey Harrington to have a big day against the Falcons defense that allows 6.7 yards per pass attempt and an opposing QB 67.3% completion rate. The Lions will most likely go down a few TD's at some point and that's when I expect Harrington to drive this offense to a few TD's of their own. The 'Over' is 13-3 in Steve Mariucci's last 16 games versus an opponent off a SU underdog win. The 'Over' is also 3-0 in the last three meetings between these teams.
The Atlanta Falcons are off to a 4-0 start this season and Michael Vick is showing why he will one day he could easily be the NFL MVP. The Falcons have two big wins at home this year, running the Rams and Cardinals in weeks 2 and 3. Vick has been on his game passing wise and has also rushed for 222 yards. He is up against a severely depleted Lions secondary that allows 277 passing yards per game. The Falcons average 6.9 yards per attempt, while the Lions allow 7.5 yards per pass attempt. The Lions defense has been decent against the run this year but I don't think they can stop the Vick-Dunn duo that averages 5.1 yards per carry. The Falcons average 174.2 rushing yards per game and will control this game from start to end.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
This is the time to take the Bucs. Tampa Bay is 0-4 this season and you can bet your bottom dollar John Gruden will do everything it takes to not go 0-5. The Bucs average only 274.5 total yards per game but I think we will see an improvement in this game as they face a New Orleans defense that allows 390.3 total yards per game. Brad Johnson is out as QB and Chris Simms is in. Simms played earlier in the year passing for 175 yards on 21-of-33 completions. He showed many critics that he can move the Bucs down the field, but reaching the end zone was a problem. I love the fact that RB Michael Pittman is back because the Saints allow 159.5 rushing yards per game. Simms will be working against a defense that averages less than one INT per game and that allows 7.2 yards per pass attempt. QB changes like this usually help desperate teams. Bucs might win this SU. The Bucs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 when playing on the road after back-to-back losses. The underdog in this series is 0-4 ATS in the last four and the John Gruden is 11-3 ATS in his last 14 games off a non-conference loss.
The New Orleans Saints are back to their usual tricks and are coming off a blowout loss to the Cardinals last Sunday. Aaron Brooks had a horrible game and I don't expect things to get easier against Gruden and company. The Saints average 6.7 yards per pass attempt this season but the Bucs allow a miniscule 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Opposing QB's are completing their passes at only 50.1% versus the Bucs. Since Deuce McCallister got hurt, things have not been the same for New Orleans. They average only 77.5 rushing yards per game and only 3.8 yards per carry. The Tampa defense has been mediocre against the run but I can't see the Saints doing much on the ground.
Here are a few more reasons to fade the Saints this week. They are 2-10 as Home Favourites off SU & ATS losses when facing an opponent off a SU & ATS loss. They are also 1-16 ATS as a division home favourite of less than 5 points. In October, the Saints are 1-11 ATS at home versus division opponents and 2-8-1 ATS versus division opponents off a straight up loss. In divisional play, the Saints are 1-15 ATS as Home Favourites of less than 5 points and 2-16 ATS as a home favourite versus an opponent coming off a loss. Now for coach Haslett...He is 1-5 ATS at home off a Double Digit straight up loss and 4-10 ATS at home versus an opponent off a straight up loss.
Buffalo Bills +7
The Bills are 0-3 to start the year (what else is new) and should really be 10 point underdogs in this one. Drew Bledsoe leads an offense that averages only 274 total yards per game. Drew Bledsoe and company know that they have to win this game to have a chance at the playoffs and they usually play well following games with the Patriots. Troy Vincent is out for a few weeks but that doesn't concern me. The Jets have a lot going for them on the ground which is good news for the Bills who allow only 85 yards rushing per game. I expect a huge day from Travis Henry who is bound to have a breakout game this season. The Bills are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following the New England game and 5-1 ATS off their last six division losses.
The New York Jets escaped Miami with a 17-9 win last Sunday. They are now 3-0 on the season and looking pretty damn good. However, Curtis Martin will run into problems this week against a Bills defense that allows only 85 rushing yards per game. I think the Jets can score quite easily on the Bills but also have a feeling that the Bills will score just as much and keep it close. Listen to these numbers. The Jets are 1-8 ATS off back-to-back spread wins versus an opponent off a double-digit straight up loss (Bills lost 31-17 last week). The Jets are also 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 as favourites of more than 6 points and 1-7 ATS as the home favourite off back-to-back wins versus an opponent coming off a loss. Those are some crazy numbers and I'll take the Bills.
San Francisco 49ers -1
The easy thing to do in this one would be to go against the 49ers right? I mean they sucked against St. Louis and Arizona is coming off a huge win over New Orleans. Let me tell you, it's not that simple.
The Arizona Cardinals shocked many last week by blowing out the Saints at home. Listen to the 'at home' part. I don't trust the Cardinals playing on the road and I really don't trust them in a divisional road game. Sure Josh McCown has played well but the Cards have lost both their road games. On the road, the Cards average only 250 total yards per game while the SF defense allows only 293.5 total yards per home game. The running game seems to be non-existent when they leave home and that will cause problems in this game. The SF defense is better at home and I expect some improvements from the Rams game. Since 1998, the Cardinals are 0-5 lifetime when playing in San Fran.
The San Francisco 49ers are 0-4 on the season but that is about to change. They nearly beat Atlanta in week 1 and are coming off a bad loss to the Rams. The 49ers are going to come out hard in this game and I believe QB Tim Rattay will be much better than last game. I mean, how can you run an offense properly when you are already down 14-0? The Arizona defense is weak on the road this season and allows a whopping 6.2 yards per carry on the ground. Kevin Barlow should benefit from this as he is looking for that breakout game. The 49ers also average 270.0 yards passing per home game and face a defense that allows 6.7 yards per pass attempt. For fun, the 49ers are 5-0 ATS and SU when hosting Arizona and are 7-1 ATS off a SU loss versus an opponent off a SU Win in October. Time to join the win column boys.
Baltimore Ravens PICK
The Ravens are coming off a 27-24 loss on Monday Night Football and believe me when I say they don't want to lose another. The Ravens average 148.5 yards rushing per game and are up against a Washington defense that allows only 59.5 rushing yards per game. Thing is, the Skins D has yet to run into a decent RB and expect that to change this week. Jamal Lewis might not play due to suspension and if he is out, so is my Ravens play. Kyle Boller made too many mistakes on Monday Night but I think he will have a better game on Sunday. Sure Washington allows only 193.8 passing yards per game but they also allow opposing QB's to complete 62% of their passes. Boller has only thrown two picks all year and has shown signs of maturing in the NFL. Get this, the Ravens are 7-1-1 ATS as a 'PICK' or underdog in their 1st non-division road game of the season.
The Washington Redskins are a well coached team but I still wonder sometimes what Joe Gibbs is thinking. His clock management skills are poor and so is his play calling at times. The Skins are 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 home games and have not shown any signs of offensive improvement since the season began. Opposing QB's are completing an average of only 55% of their passes against the Ravens defense and that same defense averages 1.3 interceptions per game. The Redskins only win came against Tampa Bay as they lost their other games to mediocre teams from Cleveland, Dallas and the Giants. The Ravens are in another class of teams and should win this one hands down.
The Ravens average 13.2 yards per punt return while the Redskins average only 6.9 yards per punt return. In a PICK game, special teams mean a lot and I can see the Ravens pulling through for us with a big punt return for 6. The Redskins also lose an average of 1.5 fumbles per game which is quite incredible.
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