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Syracuse +15 @ West Virginia
Over / Under = 51
MY PLAY:
West Virginia Mountaineers -15
ANALYSIS:
I rather like West Virginia in this spot. Syracuse's road woes have been well documented, and after that super close home loss to FSU this past weekend, I look for the Orange to continue their struggles out of the dome.
Syracuse likes to run the ball, evidenced by their 160.7 yards per game average. However, the Mountaineers hold their opponents to a respectable 129.7 yards a game, but more importantly an average of just 3.3 yards a carry. On the road Syracuse has seen it's running production drop to 114.6 yards a game and a meager 2.9 yards a carry. West Virginia's run defense at home has been great, holding opponents to 106.7 yards a game and 2.9 yards a carry.
Syracuse doesn't possess nearly the passing attack that UConn showed West Virginia last week. The Orange average just 147.7 passing yards a game overall on the year, and QB Perry Patterson, while completing 57% of his passes, has just a 3-5 TD-INT ratio. If West Virginia could go on the road and cool down QB Dan Orlovsky, my thinking is they can totally shut down the Syracuse passing attack (which doesn't have any deep-speed WRs from what I've seen).
The thing I really like is for West Virginia's running game to completely destroy the Syracuse defense. The Mountaineers have the #8 running attack in the nation, getting 257.8 yards a game on the ground. Now, I know RB Kay-Jay Harris is still questionable with knee/ankle injuries (this concerned me last week @UConn), but backup RB Jason Colson showed that he can play (13 carries for 111 yards and 1 TD) as well as RB Pernell Williams (16 carries for 89 yards and 1 TD) against UConn's #63 run defense. I know UConn was without DL Tyler King, but now the Mountaineers are playing against the 99th ranked rushing defense that gives up 182.2 yards a game on the ground and a bad 4.6 yards per attempt.
While a lot of people may think "Well simple, Syracuse will just stack 8 in the box and try stuff the run". True, BUT while West Virginia doesn't pass the ball a whole lot (only about 150 yards a game since they use the running game so much), they may be looking to take some shots against this Syracuse defense that gives up 222 yards a game through the air. As always, play action could be huge here. I look for WR Chris Henry to get the ball lobbed his way with his big 6'4 200 lbs body.
Another thing I like is the fact that QB Rasheed Marshall can scramble. He's got good speed and can dart up the field if needed. Syracuse has only faced one other scrambling QB this season, Virginia's Marques Hagans who torched them for 81 yards and 2 TDs on just 6 carries. By the way, that was a Syracuse road loss of 31-10.
Hopefully West Virginia's ace KR/PR Adam Jones can make a few nice runbacks and give the Mountaineers good starting field position.
It'd be great if RB Kay-Jay Harris can play and give West Virginia about 15 carries IMO, that will allow the Mountaineers to mix in Colson and Williams. I really think this could be a case in which a team with superior players gets it done nicely, especially at home.
GO WV
Syracuse +15 @ West Virginia
Over / Under = 51
MY PLAY:
West Virginia Mountaineers -15
ANALYSIS:
I rather like West Virginia in this spot. Syracuse's road woes have been well documented, and after that super close home loss to FSU this past weekend, I look for the Orange to continue their struggles out of the dome.
Syracuse likes to run the ball, evidenced by their 160.7 yards per game average. However, the Mountaineers hold their opponents to a respectable 129.7 yards a game, but more importantly an average of just 3.3 yards a carry. On the road Syracuse has seen it's running production drop to 114.6 yards a game and a meager 2.9 yards a carry. West Virginia's run defense at home has been great, holding opponents to 106.7 yards a game and 2.9 yards a carry.
Syracuse doesn't possess nearly the passing attack that UConn showed West Virginia last week. The Orange average just 147.7 passing yards a game overall on the year, and QB Perry Patterson, while completing 57% of his passes, has just a 3-5 TD-INT ratio. If West Virginia could go on the road and cool down QB Dan Orlovsky, my thinking is they can totally shut down the Syracuse passing attack (which doesn't have any deep-speed WRs from what I've seen).
The thing I really like is for West Virginia's running game to completely destroy the Syracuse defense. The Mountaineers have the #8 running attack in the nation, getting 257.8 yards a game on the ground. Now, I know RB Kay-Jay Harris is still questionable with knee/ankle injuries (this concerned me last week @UConn), but backup RB Jason Colson showed that he can play (13 carries for 111 yards and 1 TD) as well as RB Pernell Williams (16 carries for 89 yards and 1 TD) against UConn's #63 run defense. I know UConn was without DL Tyler King, but now the Mountaineers are playing against the 99th ranked rushing defense that gives up 182.2 yards a game on the ground and a bad 4.6 yards per attempt.
While a lot of people may think "Well simple, Syracuse will just stack 8 in the box and try stuff the run". True, BUT while West Virginia doesn't pass the ball a whole lot (only about 150 yards a game since they use the running game so much), they may be looking to take some shots against this Syracuse defense that gives up 222 yards a game through the air. As always, play action could be huge here. I look for WR Chris Henry to get the ball lobbed his way with his big 6'4 200 lbs body.
Another thing I like is the fact that QB Rasheed Marshall can scramble. He's got good speed and can dart up the field if needed. Syracuse has only faced one other scrambling QB this season, Virginia's Marques Hagans who torched them for 81 yards and 2 TDs on just 6 carries. By the way, that was a Syracuse road loss of 31-10.
Hopefully West Virginia's ace KR/PR Adam Jones can make a few nice runbacks and give the Mountaineers good starting field position.
It'd be great if RB Kay-Jay Harris can play and give West Virginia about 15 carries IMO, that will allow the Mountaineers to mix in Colson and Williams. I really think this could be a case in which a team with superior players gets it done nicely, especially at home.
GO WV
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