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Buffalo Bills -3
The Arizona Cardinals are coming off an impressive win over the Seattle Seahawks. However, I am not convinced the Seahawks are that good of a team and until the Cards can beat AFC teams on the road, I am going to continue fading them. Arizona comes into this game averaging 89.0 rushing yards per game on the road this season and are up against a Bills team that allows 4.0 yards per carry. Let's get one thing straight...the Cardinals are going nowhere if they think they can run the ball all day. QB Josh McCown has thrown only 4 TD passes and 4 Interceptions. He is up against a Bills defense that should have Lawyer Milloy back and that allows only 180.3 passing yards per game on 6.1 yards per pass attempt. The Cardinals average only 5.8 yards per pass attempt on the road. Opposing QB's are completing only 52.8% of their passes when visiting Ralph Wilson Stadium this season. McCown's QB rating is 86.9 on the road and the Bills have held opposing QB's to only 72.4 at home.
The Buffalo Bills are coming off another embarrassing loss...this time to the Jamal Lewis-less Ravens. However, I am much more comfortable taking the Bills at home. The Cardinals are one of the worst rush-defense teams in the league when playing on the road. Willis McGahee has been getting better by the week and will share rushing duties with Travis Henry. These guys are up against an Arizona defense that allows a whopping 142.3 rushing yards per road game on an amazing 5.4 yards per carry. In the air, the Bills are averaging a decent 6.5 yards per pass attempt and face a Cards defense that allows 6.8 yards per pass attempt on the road. Opposing QB's are completing 64.0% of their passes against Arizona on the road. Bledsoe's QB Rating at home is 85.9 and the Cardinals allow opposing QB's a rating of 85.1 on the road.
Arizona is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games and 1-8 ATS in their last nine versus AFC teams. The Bills have covered the spread in each of the last three meetings.
Baltimore Ravens +7.5
The Baltimore Ravens, even though they only beat the Bills, showed the rest of the league that they can win with or without Jamal Lewis. RB Chester Taylor showed that he belongs at this level and is now averaging 5.2 yards per carry this season on 49 carries. When playing on the road, the Ravens average 166.0 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry. They are up against an Eagles defense that allows a whopping 5.6 yards per carry at home (135.3 rushing yards per game). Trust me when I say you will remember Chester Taylor after this game. Sure Kyle Boller has struggled but it all starts with the running game. The Eagles are currently allowing opposing QB's to complete 63.5% of their passes when playing in their home. As long as Boller doesn't panic with all the blitzing he will see, I see some big things from this Ravens offense. The Eagles are allowing opposing teams to convert nearly 40% of 3rd down attempts at home.
The Philadelphia Eagles are lucky to be unbeaten this week. After narrowly escaping a shocking loss to the Browns last week, McNabb and company will have to beat a hungry Ravens team. RB Brian Westbrook will not play Sunday, leaving McNabb with limited options. The Eagles have been averaging 4.9 yards per carry at home this season but have to face a Ravens defense that allows only 82.0 rushing yards on the road on 3.0 yards per carry. In the air, McNabb is completing 65.6% of his passes at home and averaging an incredible 8.2 yards per pass attempt. However, Neon Deon and company are allowing only 4.8 yards per pass attempt on the road and opposing QB's are completing only 50.5% of their passes. When it comes down to penalties, the Eagles take about 2.1 more penalties per game than the Ravens. I say this game is close. Did you know that the Ravens have won 2 of their last 3 straight up here in Philly?
Cincinnati Bengals-Tennessee Titans 'Over' 40.5
I know you are probably wondering who the hell is going to score any points in this game but truth to the matter is, this game should reach well into the 50's.
The Cincinnati Bengals are responsible for myself and others losing a ton of cash on Monday night (a $400 000 win in my case...no time to explain). I think the Bengals are officially rolling now and we can expect bigger things from them in weeks to come. In three road games this season, the Bengals have averaged 102.7 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry and are up against a Tennessee defense that has been getting killed by the run at home (121.0 rushing yards allowed per home game). Rudi Johnson should shine today taking a lot of pressure off Carson Palmer. The same Carson Palmer who is coming off a win over the supposed best pass defense team in the NFL. Palmer is completing 58.0% of his passes on the road and faces a heavily depleted Titans defense that allows 7.7 yards per pass attempt at home. Visiting QB's are completing a whopping 68.4% of their passes against the Titans and averaging a QB Rating of 102.7. I'm calling for the Bengals to score 4 touchdowns in this one.
The Tennessee Titans are so injury plagued that I am not sure they can finish the year in one piece. Steve McNair should be good to go on Sunday and even if he isn't, Volek is used to getting the call. Turf toe or no turf toe, Chris Brown should play as he leads a running game that averages 124.3 rushing yard per home game on 4.8 yards per carry. They are up against a Cincinnati defense that is brutal against the run and that allows 174.3 rushing yards per road game. Wow...the scoring in this game should be insane. In the air, the Titans are completing 56.5% of their passes at home but have the pleasure of facing a Bengals defense that allows home team QB's to complete 70.7% of their passes. Are you kidding me? The Bengals also allow 9.3 yards per pass attempt and an averaging QB Rating of 119.7 for the home team QB's. Shootout baby!
The 'Over' is 6-1 in Cincy's last seven road games and 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams.
Jacksonville Jaguars-Houston Texans 'Over' 42.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars look like the Carolina Panthers of 2003. They are coming off a huge upset of the Colts last weekend and are now 5-2 on the year. When playing on the road, Fred Taylor and company average 106.8 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry. They are up against a Houston defense that allows a whopping 131.7 rushing yards per game at home on 5.1 yards per carry. Taylor should have no problems breaking 2-3 15+ yard runs. Byron Leftwich has been fantastic this season completing a touchdown pass in every single game. He is completing 65.0% of his passes on the road and is up against a Houston defense that allows 271.3 passing yards per game at home on 7.3 yards per pass attempt. The Texans rarely pressure opposing QB's at home and allow them to complete 66.1% of their passes. Another problem for the Houston defense is stopping teams on 3rd down. Visiting teams are converting 51.2% of their 3rd down chances.
The Houston Texans have been a pleasant surprise of this early season, going 3-3 with a few upsets. The Texans led by Dominack Davis and Jonathan Wells are not exactly running the ball well but they are getting the job done. They average 108.0 rushing yards per game and are up against a Jacksonville defense that allows 119.3 rushing yards per road game on 4.1 yards per carry. David Carr has played very well and is currently completing over 60% of his passes on the year. The Texans average a whopping 269.3 passing yards per home game with an average of 8.8 yards per pass attempt. You all thought the Jacksonville defense was very good against the pass but think again. When playing on the road, the Jaguars allow opposing QB's to complete 65.5% of their passes and allow 7.2 yards per pass attempt. They also allow the home teams to convert 53.8% of 3rd down chances. This is crucial in a game like this where the touchdowns will come in tons.
Denver Broncos -6.5
The Atlanta Falcons have left people scratching their heads. After looking like the surprise team of the year, they go out and lose 56-10 to the Chiefs last Sunday. Michael Vick has been horrible on the road, completing only 49.2% of his passes. If he thought things would get easier this week...they won't. He is up against a Denver pass defense that allows only 147.7 passing yards per home game and only 5.4 yards per pass attempt. The only way the Falcons have a chance in this one is if they run the ball for 300+ yards. They average 126.3 rushing yards per road game on 4.3 yards per carry. I highly doubt the run game will be effective against a Denver defense that allows only 105.3 rushing yards per home game on 3.8 yards per carry. The Falcons are converting a league-low 20.6% of 3rd down chances when playing on the road. Opposing QB's are completing only 53.7% of their passes when visiting Mile High Stadium this season. The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six versus the Broncos.
The Denver Broncos are coming off that horrible Monday Night loss to Cincinnati and will need to play with sparks up their asses. The only time I have been impressed with Broncos squad has been when they play at home. Rueben Droughens is now the featured back since Quentin Griffin is out for the year. Droughens and company are averaging 149.7 rushing yard per home game on 4.8 yards per carry. The best part is, they get to face an Atlanta defense that allows a whopping 143.7 rushing yards on the road this season. Jake Plummer looked like trash on Monday Night but I expect bigger things in this game. He is completing 63.8% of his passes at home and faces the Atlanta defense that allows opposing QB's to complete 62.5% of their passes at home. The Falcons also allow 276.0 passing yards per road game on 7.4 yards per pass attempt. Plummer should have an easy time with this defense as he averages 7.7 yards per pass attempt at home.
The Arizona Cardinals are coming off an impressive win over the Seattle Seahawks. However, I am not convinced the Seahawks are that good of a team and until the Cards can beat AFC teams on the road, I am going to continue fading them. Arizona comes into this game averaging 89.0 rushing yards per game on the road this season and are up against a Bills team that allows 4.0 yards per carry. Let's get one thing straight...the Cardinals are going nowhere if they think they can run the ball all day. QB Josh McCown has thrown only 4 TD passes and 4 Interceptions. He is up against a Bills defense that should have Lawyer Milloy back and that allows only 180.3 passing yards per game on 6.1 yards per pass attempt. The Cardinals average only 5.8 yards per pass attempt on the road. Opposing QB's are completing only 52.8% of their passes when visiting Ralph Wilson Stadium this season. McCown's QB rating is 86.9 on the road and the Bills have held opposing QB's to only 72.4 at home.
The Buffalo Bills are coming off another embarrassing loss...this time to the Jamal Lewis-less Ravens. However, I am much more comfortable taking the Bills at home. The Cardinals are one of the worst rush-defense teams in the league when playing on the road. Willis McGahee has been getting better by the week and will share rushing duties with Travis Henry. These guys are up against an Arizona defense that allows a whopping 142.3 rushing yards per road game on an amazing 5.4 yards per carry. In the air, the Bills are averaging a decent 6.5 yards per pass attempt and face a Cards defense that allows 6.8 yards per pass attempt on the road. Opposing QB's are completing 64.0% of their passes against Arizona on the road. Bledsoe's QB Rating at home is 85.9 and the Cardinals allow opposing QB's a rating of 85.1 on the road.
Arizona is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games and 1-8 ATS in their last nine versus AFC teams. The Bills have covered the spread in each of the last three meetings.
Baltimore Ravens +7.5
The Baltimore Ravens, even though they only beat the Bills, showed the rest of the league that they can win with or without Jamal Lewis. RB Chester Taylor showed that he belongs at this level and is now averaging 5.2 yards per carry this season on 49 carries. When playing on the road, the Ravens average 166.0 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry. They are up against an Eagles defense that allows a whopping 5.6 yards per carry at home (135.3 rushing yards per game). Trust me when I say you will remember Chester Taylor after this game. Sure Kyle Boller has struggled but it all starts with the running game. The Eagles are currently allowing opposing QB's to complete 63.5% of their passes when playing in their home. As long as Boller doesn't panic with all the blitzing he will see, I see some big things from this Ravens offense. The Eagles are allowing opposing teams to convert nearly 40% of 3rd down attempts at home.
The Philadelphia Eagles are lucky to be unbeaten this week. After narrowly escaping a shocking loss to the Browns last week, McNabb and company will have to beat a hungry Ravens team. RB Brian Westbrook will not play Sunday, leaving McNabb with limited options. The Eagles have been averaging 4.9 yards per carry at home this season but have to face a Ravens defense that allows only 82.0 rushing yards on the road on 3.0 yards per carry. In the air, McNabb is completing 65.6% of his passes at home and averaging an incredible 8.2 yards per pass attempt. However, Neon Deon and company are allowing only 4.8 yards per pass attempt on the road and opposing QB's are completing only 50.5% of their passes. When it comes down to penalties, the Eagles take about 2.1 more penalties per game than the Ravens. I say this game is close. Did you know that the Ravens have won 2 of their last 3 straight up here in Philly?
Cincinnati Bengals-Tennessee Titans 'Over' 40.5
I know you are probably wondering who the hell is going to score any points in this game but truth to the matter is, this game should reach well into the 50's.
The Cincinnati Bengals are responsible for myself and others losing a ton of cash on Monday night (a $400 000 win in my case...no time to explain). I think the Bengals are officially rolling now and we can expect bigger things from them in weeks to come. In three road games this season, the Bengals have averaged 102.7 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry and are up against a Tennessee defense that has been getting killed by the run at home (121.0 rushing yards allowed per home game). Rudi Johnson should shine today taking a lot of pressure off Carson Palmer. The same Carson Palmer who is coming off a win over the supposed best pass defense team in the NFL. Palmer is completing 58.0% of his passes on the road and faces a heavily depleted Titans defense that allows 7.7 yards per pass attempt at home. Visiting QB's are completing a whopping 68.4% of their passes against the Titans and averaging a QB Rating of 102.7. I'm calling for the Bengals to score 4 touchdowns in this one.
The Tennessee Titans are so injury plagued that I am not sure they can finish the year in one piece. Steve McNair should be good to go on Sunday and even if he isn't, Volek is used to getting the call. Turf toe or no turf toe, Chris Brown should play as he leads a running game that averages 124.3 rushing yard per home game on 4.8 yards per carry. They are up against a Cincinnati defense that is brutal against the run and that allows 174.3 rushing yards per road game. Wow...the scoring in this game should be insane. In the air, the Titans are completing 56.5% of their passes at home but have the pleasure of facing a Bengals defense that allows home team QB's to complete 70.7% of their passes. Are you kidding me? The Bengals also allow 9.3 yards per pass attempt and an averaging QB Rating of 119.7 for the home team QB's. Shootout baby!
The 'Over' is 6-1 in Cincy's last seven road games and 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams.
Jacksonville Jaguars-Houston Texans 'Over' 42.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars look like the Carolina Panthers of 2003. They are coming off a huge upset of the Colts last weekend and are now 5-2 on the year. When playing on the road, Fred Taylor and company average 106.8 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry. They are up against a Houston defense that allows a whopping 131.7 rushing yards per game at home on 5.1 yards per carry. Taylor should have no problems breaking 2-3 15+ yard runs. Byron Leftwich has been fantastic this season completing a touchdown pass in every single game. He is completing 65.0% of his passes on the road and is up against a Houston defense that allows 271.3 passing yards per game at home on 7.3 yards per pass attempt. The Texans rarely pressure opposing QB's at home and allow them to complete 66.1% of their passes. Another problem for the Houston defense is stopping teams on 3rd down. Visiting teams are converting 51.2% of their 3rd down chances.
The Houston Texans have been a pleasant surprise of this early season, going 3-3 with a few upsets. The Texans led by Dominack Davis and Jonathan Wells are not exactly running the ball well but they are getting the job done. They average 108.0 rushing yards per game and are up against a Jacksonville defense that allows 119.3 rushing yards per road game on 4.1 yards per carry. David Carr has played very well and is currently completing over 60% of his passes on the year. The Texans average a whopping 269.3 passing yards per home game with an average of 8.8 yards per pass attempt. You all thought the Jacksonville defense was very good against the pass but think again. When playing on the road, the Jaguars allow opposing QB's to complete 65.5% of their passes and allow 7.2 yards per pass attempt. They also allow the home teams to convert 53.8% of 3rd down chances. This is crucial in a game like this where the touchdowns will come in tons.
Denver Broncos -6.5
The Atlanta Falcons have left people scratching their heads. After looking like the surprise team of the year, they go out and lose 56-10 to the Chiefs last Sunday. Michael Vick has been horrible on the road, completing only 49.2% of his passes. If he thought things would get easier this week...they won't. He is up against a Denver pass defense that allows only 147.7 passing yards per home game and only 5.4 yards per pass attempt. The only way the Falcons have a chance in this one is if they run the ball for 300+ yards. They average 126.3 rushing yards per road game on 4.3 yards per carry. I highly doubt the run game will be effective against a Denver defense that allows only 105.3 rushing yards per home game on 3.8 yards per carry. The Falcons are converting a league-low 20.6% of 3rd down chances when playing on the road. Opposing QB's are completing only 53.7% of their passes when visiting Mile High Stadium this season. The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six versus the Broncos.
The Denver Broncos are coming off that horrible Monday Night loss to Cincinnati and will need to play with sparks up their asses. The only time I have been impressed with Broncos squad has been when they play at home. Rueben Droughens is now the featured back since Quentin Griffin is out for the year. Droughens and company are averaging 149.7 rushing yard per home game on 4.8 yards per carry. The best part is, they get to face an Atlanta defense that allows a whopping 143.7 rushing yards on the road this season. Jake Plummer looked like trash on Monday Night but I expect bigger things in this game. He is completing 63.8% of his passes at home and faces the Atlanta defense that allows opposing QB's to complete 62.5% of their passes at home. The Falcons also allow 276.0 passing yards per road game on 7.4 yards per pass attempt. Plummer should have an easy time with this defense as he averages 7.7 yards per pass attempt at home.
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