As of 630pm EST; Gamblers Are Heavy On John Kerry

[Tinfish]

As of 6:30 Eastern, all the online gaming places have changed their odds for the presidential outcome.

Currently it is:

Political Party to have the next USA President :
Democrat -300
Republican +250

For those that dont understand lines or odds it goes like this:

If you think Kerry will win, you have to bet $300 to win $100

If you think Bush will win, you can bet $100 and get $250

or another way stated;

to win $100 you have to bet either $300 on Kerry or $40 on Bush.

Vegas is BIG on Kerry at this moment.

[Scrumhalf]

Now those are dramatically different odds betwen the two. How do these geniuses in Vegas know this when every poll has it too close to call? On the other hand, Vegas has to put its money where its mouth is, so maybe they are on to something and the pollsters are full of crap.

[Tinfish]

The exit poll numbers you are seeing are raw numbers. Exit polling is not heavily scrubbed at this point and therefore it has not not been adjusted for turnout in each precinct, and for demographic concerns (ie. gender, race, party etc.). These raw numbers are obviously not reflective of the entire voting demographic and are not adjusted till later in the process. As you already know the inital sample contained more women than men resulting in a skewed sample. Remember that women tend to trend democratic. In addition. we have had a significant number of people in key states participating in the early voting and by virtue of their voting earlier are not reflected in the exit poll data.

[Tinfish]

oh and by the way.

2 days ago it was Bush -200

this morning it was even money: kerry -110

at 2:30pm EST it was Kerry -170

so money has steadily been coming in on Kerry all day.

[Severedties]

I should have bet all my money on bush. I would be rich.

[GunzInCali]

dont know where you found that. I bet thru 3 sites and they all favored George W anywhere from -140 to -160 with Kerry being +120 to +140

[Tinfish]

Originally posted by GunzInCali
dont know where you found that. I bet thru 3 sites and they all favored George W anywhere from -140 to -160 with Kerry being +120 to +140

I am sure your 3 sites had Dubya favored by that before late monday night.

Pinnacle &
TheGreek &
WSEX &
BoDog &
BetWWTS &
plus probably 30 others all had Kerry above -250 by mid afternoon yesterday.


On monday, Dubya was favored by -150ish . but on tues morning it started to switch and by noon it had kerry the favorite. then by later afternoon kerry was a big fave. Got up to -360 at WSEX

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=236964
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=237076
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=236998
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=236943
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/s...d.php?t=164904
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/s...d.php?t=154642
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/s...d.php?t=164958
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/s...d.php?t=164888
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/s...d.php?t=164888

just to give you a few timestamped threads on the line movement.