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Oakland vs. Carolina under 42
The Raiders have gone 8-2 “under” in their last 10 when playing the second of back to back road games. Carolina on the other hand has gone 8-1 “under” in their last 9 when playing a team with a .400 or less winning percentage. On offense, Carolina is averaging only 14.3 ppg this season while the Raiders are not much better, averaging 17.3 ppg. To make matters worse, the Panthers are averaging only 10 ppg at home while the Raiders are scoring 16.9 ppg on the road. Both teams are allowing about 148 yards per game on the ground and I’ve got a feeling that both teams will want to try to run the ball down each other’s throats. Running the ball equals lots of clock being chewed. I’ll take the under thank you.
NY Jets vs. Buffalo under 37
The last 8 meetings between these two have seen the under go 7-1. The totals set for those games have also been very consistent with a low of 37 and never higher than 40.5. The combined points scored in those 8 prior meetings has been 26, 44, 31, 23, 33 pts, 24 , 38, and 23. Both these teams are ranked in the top ten in the league on defense with the Bills limiting their opponents to 18 ppg while the Jets have held their opponents to 17 ppg. With the Jets coming off a Monday night whipping of the Dolphins, it is noteworthy that the Jets are 6-3 “under” off a Monday night game and 11-5 “under” after playing the Dolphins. Buffalo lost earlier in the season to the Jets by a score of 17-9. The Jets are 6-0 “under” whey they play an opponent with same season revenge. Buffalo is 4-0 “under” with same season revenge and 4-0 “under” when playing a team coming off a Monday night game. They are also 4-1 “under” in the second of back to back home games. Buffalo has also gone under the total in 9 of their last 12 when they won straight up at home the week before and they are 7-2 “under” their last 9 when playing a team with a .666 or better winning percentage. Some other key numbers for the Jets is that they are 16-2 “under” when playing a team with a winning percentage of .333 or less.
Seattle vs. San Francisco under 41
The last 3 games between these two has gone under the total including the last meeting earlier this season when the Seahawks kept the 49ers of the score sheet with a 34-0 win (the total was 43.5 in that one). Last year’s two meetings had totals of 45.5 and 45 and both of they stayed under the total with 39 and 41 combined points scored respectively. What has changed this year? Well, the 49ers offense is much worse and the Seahawks defense is much better. Seattle went back to basics against the Panthers last week and got a low scoring win. I expect them to maintain that slow and steady pace as they do not want to get caught napping. They ran the ball 43 times last week and will probably look to expose the 49ers run defense this week as well. They ran the ball 37 times the last meeting. Trend-wise, the Seahawks are 6-1 “under when playing an opponent who has same season revenge, 7-2 “under” their last 9 as division favorites coming off a home game, 6-2 “under” their last 8 before playing the Rams and 8-1 “under” in their last 9 vs. a team with a .333 or less winning percentage. The 49ers on the other hand are 10-3 “under” in their last 13 as home dogs of 3 or more points, 5-1 “under” when playing the first of back to back home games and 7-3 “under” in their last 10 off a road loss. They are also 9-3 “under” in their last 12 vs. .500 or better opponents.
New Orleans vs. San Diego over 49
The Saints have seen the over go 10-2 in their last 12 games as November underdogs while the Chargers are 5-1 “over” when playing an opponent off a bye. The Saints are 3-0 “over” in their last 3 road games and 5-1 “over” in their last 6 overall. The Chargers are 4-0 “over” in their last 4 home games. The over has also gone 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. The Saints are allowing 4.5 yards per carry on the ground this year and in total are allowing 416 yards per game. Over their last 3 games they have averaged 452 yards against. They are allowing 28 ppg on the road this season while the Chargers are scoring an average of 35 ppg at home. The Saints have seen 9 of the last 12 road games they have played with a posted total of between 45.5 to 49 go over the total. The Chargers are 10-4 “over” in their last 14 off a division game and 3-1 “over” off a win over a division rival.
Cleveland vs. Baltimore over 35
Cleveland is 8-2 “over” in their last 10 as division underdogs of 3 or more points while the Ravens are 6-1 “over” in their last 7 when playing with revenge vs. a division opponent. The Browns have also seen their last 3 games go over the total while the Ravens are 4-1 “over” in their last 5 November games. The Browns are allowing an average of 26.7 points per game on the road this year while Baltimore’s questionable offense to start the season is actually averaging 24 ppg at home. The Browns have scored 29.3 ppg over their last 3 and two of those were against some decent defenses (Pitt and Philly).
Philadelphia PK at Pittsburgh
Looks like a lot of people are liking the Steelers. I though, have a good feeling that the Steelers are going to fall off their perch this week. They’ve been having a lot of fun but the fun ends today. Last week was a great spot for the Steelers as they were also playing with significant revenge for the embarrassing 30-14 opening week loss on Monday Night Football two seasons ago. A game in which they were utterly embarassed on the national spotlight. They were also coming off a bye week last week and you could bet they placed a ton of their energy during that bye week into beating the Pats. They don’t have the luxury of that extra time to prepare this week. Overall, the Eagles hold a 5 point edge on defense and a 2 point edge on offense. The Eagles are 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last 5. In my opinion, the Steelers are a go-against team this week despite what the initial public steam indicated. In my opinin, the Steeler defense has over-achieved slightly and will face a tough due in Mcnabb/Owens.
Washington +4 Detroit
In my opinion, the Lions are doing this with smoke and mirrors and at some point, they are going to meet reality. That is, you can’t keep getting out gained in every game and still expect to win. The Lions have yet to out-gain a single opponent this season. In fact they failed to out-gain each of the teams that they beat this season. The Redskins have had an extra week to try and stop the bleeding and should come out with a little spunk today. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 as road dogs and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 as dogs in the month of November. They have also covered 8 of the last 10 against non-division NFC teams. Detroit on the other hand is only 3-7 ATS at home vs. the NFC East and 1-5 ATS as home favorites off back to back road games. Look at the stats…the Lions have allowed 28 ppg at home this year. Washington has allowed 15.7 ppg on the road. Offensively, Washington has scored 15 ppg on the road while the Lions have scored 17 ppg at home and managed only 68 rushing yards on average in all their home games this year. Overall, Washington’s defense is 100 yards better than Detroit’s.
Cincinnati PK versus Dallas
The Cowboys got a big win last week to stop their slide but I got a feeling they start another losing streak today. They are only 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games against the AFC and they are only 4-12 ATS on the road vs. non-division teams before a division home game. The Bengals have done well against the NFC East, covering the spread in 8 of their last 10 and they are 14-5-2 ATS against the NFC at home. Dallas is allowing 426 yards on the road this season (31.3 ppg) while the Bengals have limited teams to 15.3 ppg at home.
Tampa Bay +3.5 over Kansas City
Kansas City had by far their biggest win of the season last week in beating the Colts at home (they had revenge for their earlier season loss). They have now won two straight and have won in some pretty convincing (and high scoring) fashion. However, not so fast. This team still allows 25.5 ppg and 4.5 yards per carry on the ground. Those numbers get worse on the road where they are allowing 26.7 ppg and 4.9 yards per carry on the ground. Overall, the Tampa defense is 160 yards better than the Chiefs, 120 yards better in the home/away columns. They are allowing only 11 ppg at home. Tampa Bay has out-yarded 5 of their last 6 opponents including all 5 of their last 5 opponents (two of those were a home loss to Denver and a road loss in St. Louis). The Chiefs are 1-7 ATS as road favorites vs. a non-division team. John Gruden is 6-1 ATS off a bye week, The Chiefs are going to want to win the only way they know how which is putting up a ton of points. However, the Bucs are more than content to get into a low scoring kicking duel.
ST. Louis -1 New England
Now that the Steelers finally put an end to their streak, we can see the mighty come off their high and mighty perch once and for all. Here’s a new streak for you…the Pats lose two in a row!! The Patriots actually started flirting with disaster about 4 weeks ago and they finally got it shoved down their throats by the Steelers last week. Pittsburgh out-yarded the Pats by 169 total yards. Prior to that, the Pats were out-yarded in two of their prior 3 games…yes, they were out-yarded by 91 yards in their 14 point win over the Dolphins. The Rams are 40-9 straight up in their last 49 home games and they have had an extra week to get over the stink-bomb they laid against the Dolphins…(they lost but still out-yarded Miami). The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Rams are 17-1 ATS in their last 18 regular season home games. Here’s a little system for you. Teams that are 4-0 or better and have their win streak stopped, are 0-11 ATS in their very next game after their streak ends if they are playing a non-division opponent.
Denver -7 over Houston
All good things must come to an end…Houston has won 4 of their last 5 and is looking to win their 3rd straight. It won’t happen. The Texans are 2-8 ATS vs. non-division teams with a division game on deck. The Broncos are 25-5 straight up at home when playing non division teams, going 19-11 in those 30 games. Denver was utterly embarrassed at home last week against the Falcons despite out-yarding them by 100 yards. They will come out with a chip on their shoulder today. I’m thinking it’s going to be very hard for Houston to score many points this week. Denver will look to lose their 3 straight heading into the bye week. It won’t happen. Denver’s defense comes back to life today. Denver is 7-2 ATS after allowing 30 or more points since the 2000 season.
The Raiders have gone 8-2 “under” in their last 10 when playing the second of back to back road games. Carolina on the other hand has gone 8-1 “under” in their last 9 when playing a team with a .400 or less winning percentage. On offense, Carolina is averaging only 14.3 ppg this season while the Raiders are not much better, averaging 17.3 ppg. To make matters worse, the Panthers are averaging only 10 ppg at home while the Raiders are scoring 16.9 ppg on the road. Both teams are allowing about 148 yards per game on the ground and I’ve got a feeling that both teams will want to try to run the ball down each other’s throats. Running the ball equals lots of clock being chewed. I’ll take the under thank you.
NY Jets vs. Buffalo under 37
The last 8 meetings between these two have seen the under go 7-1. The totals set for those games have also been very consistent with a low of 37 and never higher than 40.5. The combined points scored in those 8 prior meetings has been 26, 44, 31, 23, 33 pts, 24 , 38, and 23. Both these teams are ranked in the top ten in the league on defense with the Bills limiting their opponents to 18 ppg while the Jets have held their opponents to 17 ppg. With the Jets coming off a Monday night whipping of the Dolphins, it is noteworthy that the Jets are 6-3 “under” off a Monday night game and 11-5 “under” after playing the Dolphins. Buffalo lost earlier in the season to the Jets by a score of 17-9. The Jets are 6-0 “under” whey they play an opponent with same season revenge. Buffalo is 4-0 “under” with same season revenge and 4-0 “under” when playing a team coming off a Monday night game. They are also 4-1 “under” in the second of back to back home games. Buffalo has also gone under the total in 9 of their last 12 when they won straight up at home the week before and they are 7-2 “under” their last 9 when playing a team with a .666 or better winning percentage. Some other key numbers for the Jets is that they are 16-2 “under” when playing a team with a winning percentage of .333 or less.
Seattle vs. San Francisco under 41
The last 3 games between these two has gone under the total including the last meeting earlier this season when the Seahawks kept the 49ers of the score sheet with a 34-0 win (the total was 43.5 in that one). Last year’s two meetings had totals of 45.5 and 45 and both of they stayed under the total with 39 and 41 combined points scored respectively. What has changed this year? Well, the 49ers offense is much worse and the Seahawks defense is much better. Seattle went back to basics against the Panthers last week and got a low scoring win. I expect them to maintain that slow and steady pace as they do not want to get caught napping. They ran the ball 43 times last week and will probably look to expose the 49ers run defense this week as well. They ran the ball 37 times the last meeting. Trend-wise, the Seahawks are 6-1 “under when playing an opponent who has same season revenge, 7-2 “under” their last 9 as division favorites coming off a home game, 6-2 “under” their last 8 before playing the Rams and 8-1 “under” in their last 9 vs. a team with a .333 or less winning percentage. The 49ers on the other hand are 10-3 “under” in their last 13 as home dogs of 3 or more points, 5-1 “under” when playing the first of back to back home games and 7-3 “under” in their last 10 off a road loss. They are also 9-3 “under” in their last 12 vs. .500 or better opponents.
New Orleans vs. San Diego over 49
The Saints have seen the over go 10-2 in their last 12 games as November underdogs while the Chargers are 5-1 “over” when playing an opponent off a bye. The Saints are 3-0 “over” in their last 3 road games and 5-1 “over” in their last 6 overall. The Chargers are 4-0 “over” in their last 4 home games. The over has also gone 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. The Saints are allowing 4.5 yards per carry on the ground this year and in total are allowing 416 yards per game. Over their last 3 games they have averaged 452 yards against. They are allowing 28 ppg on the road this season while the Chargers are scoring an average of 35 ppg at home. The Saints have seen 9 of the last 12 road games they have played with a posted total of between 45.5 to 49 go over the total. The Chargers are 10-4 “over” in their last 14 off a division game and 3-1 “over” off a win over a division rival.
Cleveland vs. Baltimore over 35
Cleveland is 8-2 “over” in their last 10 as division underdogs of 3 or more points while the Ravens are 6-1 “over” in their last 7 when playing with revenge vs. a division opponent. The Browns have also seen their last 3 games go over the total while the Ravens are 4-1 “over” in their last 5 November games. The Browns are allowing an average of 26.7 points per game on the road this year while Baltimore’s questionable offense to start the season is actually averaging 24 ppg at home. The Browns have scored 29.3 ppg over their last 3 and two of those were against some decent defenses (Pitt and Philly).
Philadelphia PK at Pittsburgh
Looks like a lot of people are liking the Steelers. I though, have a good feeling that the Steelers are going to fall off their perch this week. They’ve been having a lot of fun but the fun ends today. Last week was a great spot for the Steelers as they were also playing with significant revenge for the embarrassing 30-14 opening week loss on Monday Night Football two seasons ago. A game in which they were utterly embarassed on the national spotlight. They were also coming off a bye week last week and you could bet they placed a ton of their energy during that bye week into beating the Pats. They don’t have the luxury of that extra time to prepare this week. Overall, the Eagles hold a 5 point edge on defense and a 2 point edge on offense. The Eagles are 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last 5. In my opinion, the Steelers are a go-against team this week despite what the initial public steam indicated. In my opinin, the Steeler defense has over-achieved slightly and will face a tough due in Mcnabb/Owens.
Washington +4 Detroit
In my opinion, the Lions are doing this with smoke and mirrors and at some point, they are going to meet reality. That is, you can’t keep getting out gained in every game and still expect to win. The Lions have yet to out-gain a single opponent this season. In fact they failed to out-gain each of the teams that they beat this season. The Redskins have had an extra week to try and stop the bleeding and should come out with a little spunk today. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 as road dogs and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 as dogs in the month of November. They have also covered 8 of the last 10 against non-division NFC teams. Detroit on the other hand is only 3-7 ATS at home vs. the NFC East and 1-5 ATS as home favorites off back to back road games. Look at the stats…the Lions have allowed 28 ppg at home this year. Washington has allowed 15.7 ppg on the road. Offensively, Washington has scored 15 ppg on the road while the Lions have scored 17 ppg at home and managed only 68 rushing yards on average in all their home games this year. Overall, Washington’s defense is 100 yards better than Detroit’s.
Cincinnati PK versus Dallas
The Cowboys got a big win last week to stop their slide but I got a feeling they start another losing streak today. They are only 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games against the AFC and they are only 4-12 ATS on the road vs. non-division teams before a division home game. The Bengals have done well against the NFC East, covering the spread in 8 of their last 10 and they are 14-5-2 ATS against the NFC at home. Dallas is allowing 426 yards on the road this season (31.3 ppg) while the Bengals have limited teams to 15.3 ppg at home.
Tampa Bay +3.5 over Kansas City
Kansas City had by far their biggest win of the season last week in beating the Colts at home (they had revenge for their earlier season loss). They have now won two straight and have won in some pretty convincing (and high scoring) fashion. However, not so fast. This team still allows 25.5 ppg and 4.5 yards per carry on the ground. Those numbers get worse on the road where they are allowing 26.7 ppg and 4.9 yards per carry on the ground. Overall, the Tampa defense is 160 yards better than the Chiefs, 120 yards better in the home/away columns. They are allowing only 11 ppg at home. Tampa Bay has out-yarded 5 of their last 6 opponents including all 5 of their last 5 opponents (two of those were a home loss to Denver and a road loss in St. Louis). The Chiefs are 1-7 ATS as road favorites vs. a non-division team. John Gruden is 6-1 ATS off a bye week, The Chiefs are going to want to win the only way they know how which is putting up a ton of points. However, the Bucs are more than content to get into a low scoring kicking duel.
ST. Louis -1 New England
Now that the Steelers finally put an end to their streak, we can see the mighty come off their high and mighty perch once and for all. Here’s a new streak for you…the Pats lose two in a row!! The Patriots actually started flirting with disaster about 4 weeks ago and they finally got it shoved down their throats by the Steelers last week. Pittsburgh out-yarded the Pats by 169 total yards. Prior to that, the Pats were out-yarded in two of their prior 3 games…yes, they were out-yarded by 91 yards in their 14 point win over the Dolphins. The Rams are 40-9 straight up in their last 49 home games and they have had an extra week to get over the stink-bomb they laid against the Dolphins…(they lost but still out-yarded Miami). The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Rams are 17-1 ATS in their last 18 regular season home games. Here’s a little system for you. Teams that are 4-0 or better and have their win streak stopped, are 0-11 ATS in their very next game after their streak ends if they are playing a non-division opponent.
Denver -7 over Houston
All good things must come to an end…Houston has won 4 of their last 5 and is looking to win their 3rd straight. It won’t happen. The Texans are 2-8 ATS vs. non-division teams with a division game on deck. The Broncos are 25-5 straight up at home when playing non division teams, going 19-11 in those 30 games. Denver was utterly embarrassed at home last week against the Falcons despite out-yarding them by 100 yards. They will come out with a chip on their shoulder today. I’m thinking it’s going to be very hard for Houston to score many points this week. Denver will look to lose their 3 straight heading into the bye week. It won’t happen. Denver’s defense comes back to life today. Denver is 7-2 ATS after allowing 30 or more points since the 2000 season.