Tweet
No. 18 Virginia (7-2) at Georgia Tech (6-3)
Georgia Tech + 6
Virginia is in a real tough spot here. They lost to Miami last weekend, ending Miami's 2 game losing streak. But Virginia is still a good team with a good defense. However, Virginia Tech may not deliver the best performance of the season. That was a big lostt to Miami, and there may be some motivational problems. Last weekend was the 2nd time this season for Virginia to prove whether they are a contender or a pretender, and failed both times. This could be a classic sandwich game, as they have rival Virginia Tech on tap next week. Virginia Tech will go bolwing at the end of the season, but not to any major bowl. They can't improve themselves and go to a major bowl, and lose all the tie breakers within conference. They will probably play hungover.
Geogia Tech has 6 wins already and is playing the best ball of the season lately. They have won 4 out of their last 5 games. Georgia Tech is 5-3 in the last 8 games between the two schools. This team will play their heart out and may even upset Virginia. Getting 7 points at home and Virginia's mental condition makes Georgia Tech a great play.
Wake Forest (4-5) at No. 13 Miami (7-2)
Wake Forest + 20
Miami finally ended its 2 game slide last weekend by defeateing Virginia. There was no way Miami was going to lose 3 games in a row. Miami will have some momentum coming into this game, after their tough road win. Miami is only 2-6 ATS when playing DD underdogs. This team plays to win, not necessarily to cover. Miami may be looking ahead at the Virginia Tech game (in 2 weeks), and take a win against Wake Forest for granted, causing sloppy play and mental mistakes. 20 Points will be too much to cover.
Wake Forest will not be going to a Bowl game. Therefore, they will probably look at this game as thier bowl game and will take this game very seriously. Wake Forest will be a determined team this weekend and will stay within the point spread.
No. 2 Oklahoma (10-0) at Baylor (3-7)
Baylor +37
Oklahoma and Bob Stoops got lots of heat after last weekends game with Nebraska. Oklahoma was attempting to run up the score, and failed. Nebraska was able to break out a run and get a game-ending fieldgoal. That fieldgoal cost Oklahoma the shutout and cost Oklahoma the ATS win. Because of the negative publicity Stoops received on this game, he will look to go to Waco, win the game, and get out. It won't matter whether OU beats Baylor by 20 points, or by 50 points. Moreover, OU seems to be having trouble covering against Baylor at Waco. Stoops will not leave his starters in all game because he doesn't want to risk injuries nor does he need to run up the score.
Baylor is a silent covering machine. They have a piss poor record, and a terrible conference record, but are 5-3-1 ATS this year. Baylor is 7-3 when playing at home, and this year is 3-0-1 ATS at home. Some how, superior teams just have a problem covering the spread when in Baylor. The win over A&M may give this team some confidence in that they may believe they can hang in their with the big boys. And don't forget about the DD Home dog trend that has been doing so well this year. Baylor has had a tough schedule, and has lost most of their games, but they continue to work hard and keep playing.
The outcome of this game will be a lot similar to that of the Texas game. OU will play starters for a half and then pull them once they are up by 3 or 4 scores. Baylor will get a few trash touchdowns and cover the spread, just as they have done in the past.
No. 19 Boston College (7-2) at Temple (2-8)
Temple +14
Boston College is in a troubling spot right now. This is the 2nd to last game for Boston College in the Big East, then they are going to the ACC. Boston College may make it to a BCS bowl. BC is a good, well-coached team. They don't make many mental mistakes. Boston College still cannot run the football at only 133.2 RYG (79th) putting added pressure on the quarterback. Paul Peterson has thrown for 2243 yards, with 15 Touchdowns and a whopping 10 Interceptions.
Temple has covered 5 games straight now, and have covered 7 of their last 9. This proves that although they have a losing record, they refuse to throw in the towel and keep on trying. They had an emotional win over Syracuse last weekend, and the momentum may carry over into this game. Look for them to give Boston College a tough time this weekend. This is Temple's last game in the Big East. Walter Washington has 1924 passing yards, with 8 touchdowns on the year and only 5 interceptions. Look for Temple to stay within the pointspread in this game.
No. 16 Tennessee (7-2) at Vanderbilt (2-8)
Tennessee -12.5
Tennessee is in a good spot here to win the SEC East. Tennessee has won the last 8 games against Vanderbilt, allowing Vandy to score an average of only 6.6 points! They have covered 5 of the last 6 matchups as well, including shutting Vandy out the last 3 meetings! Tennessee is having some QB troubles, but they are a talented team, and will probably play Rick Clausen, who seems like a pretty cabale QB. In addition, Tennessee is coming off of a much needed bye-week to heal up, and give some of their relieving players practice time and allowing Clausen to study up on the offense.
Vanderbilt just does not match up well with Tennessee. They have had a dismal year, and seem to come unwound during the second half of play (Kentucky!!!). I think, from a psychological standpoint, Vanderbilt is going to this game already knowing they will get defeated, and therefore may only go through the motions. They have lost their last 3 games, and failed to cover in the last 2 games. Not to mention, Vanderbilt is only averaging 17.9 (108th) points per game. Removing the cupcake games, Vanderbilt has allowed an average of 30.5 ppg (To Georgia, LSU, FLA, SC). Also, in those 4 games, Vanderbilt has only put up 8.25 ppg. Vanderbilt is giving up 190.3 Rushing YPG (91st), a whopping number that includes the previously excluded cupcake teams. They've also given up 17 rushing touchdowns this season. In the air, Vandy is allowing their opponents to complete 70% of their passes (113th). Florida put up 500 yards on this team on November 6th. Here's another trend for you, they're 0-9 after playing Kentucky.
Vanderbilt is straight up outclassed. There is a lot of value in this line. Tennessee can establish a run game, relieving pressure off Clausen, so that he doesn't have to force plays. Expect Houston (RB) to far exceed his average number of carries this weekend. Vandy has been shutout the last 3 years, which says a whole lot about the way these teams have been matching up recently.
Oregon (5-5) at Oregon State (5-5)
Oregon +4
First off, Oregon State has some off-field issues after supsending three players including last week's star receiver, Anthony Wheat-Brown. It's hard to say how much of a distraction this is, but IS a distraction. Both teams need this win to become Bowl eligible, not to mention, this is the Civil War.
Oregon State is the 2nd worse running team in the nation with just 74.1 rushing yards per game. That is terrible. Because of this, the Beavers put it in the air a lot. They rank 21st in the country with 271.3 TPY per game. However, they are only have a 40% pass completion percentage, which is 113th of all D1 Teams. Even though they catch it less than half the time, they attempt to pass about 47.5 times per game (2nd). The Quarterback for Oregan State is Derek Anderson. The talented senior has thrown for a whopping 10,540 yards in his career with 71 touchdown passes, but he has also pitched 56 interceptions! After a strong period in the middle of the season where he was sharp, he has thrown six interceptions in the last two games! He is already at 16 INT's for the year. The Beavers are prone to mental mistakes, as they turn the ball over 2.7 times per game (110th) in the nation and commit 8.6 penalties per game (110th) losing 77.8 yards per game (112th). They are decent on defense, allowing 200.9 (45th) passing yards and 124.0 (30th) rushing yards. Oregon puts up 20.5 (106th) points on offense at home, while allowing 25.8 (86th) points the visitor. team.
Oregon, the better team, is getting points! On the road, Oregon is 4-0ATS so far this year. And, Oregon has covered 5 of the last 6 games. Oregon has had 2 back to back tough losses (Barely losing @ California (1 point) and to UCLA (12 points)). The Duck's offense turns the ball over 1.5 times per game (32nd) this year. Winning the TO margin is huge in rivalry games. Oregon State can't and won't run the ball, and will put it in the air. The Ducks have a pretty good pass defense, letting teams complete about 50% of their passes wracking up 201.7 passing yards (48th). Kellen Clemens looks like a pretty solid QB, completing 61.2% of his passes, and wracking up 2422 yards, 19 passing TD's and only 7 INT's. He rushed for a TD in the game last week with UCLA. Oregan has gotten a solid performance out of Terrence Whitehead as well, averaging 1034 yards and 6 TD's. Also, Demetrius Williams (43 catches, 539 yards, one TD), who missed last week's game with a toe injury, is expected to return to action.
Oregon, the slightly better team, with a more balanced offense, that comits less mental mistakes, getting points looks solid.
No. 7 Michigan (9-1) at Ohio State (6-4)
Michigan -5
Ohio State is having trouble on and off the field. Off the field, Maurice Clarett is causing lots of trouble. On the field, they are having their troubles as well. Ohio State has had a rough year, losing 4 of their last 7 games. The offense is where this team struggles. They are 10th in the Big 10 (out of 11), with 22 PPG, which is also 89th nationally. They are last in the conference in passing yards per game at only 167.5, which is also 98th nationally. They are 8th in the conference and 80th nationally in rushing yards, with 132.6 RYG. They continue to make mental mistakes as their offense averages 2.2 turnovers per game (87th). Whether Justin Zwick (shoulder) or Troy Smith starts at QB, neither have really been that impressive, completing the pass 50% (94th) of the time. Zwick has 5TD's and 6INT's, Smith has 6TD's and 3INT's. Antonio Pitman is leading the running game, he has only cranked out 374 rushing yards @ 46.8 per game. Ohio State's defense has been playing better than the offense, allowing 19.1 PPG (23rd), 134.5 rushing YPG (48th), and 195.4 passing YPG (32nd). Suprisingly, they are 1st in the league, allowing only 9.9 yards per pass.
Michigan is a very well-rounded team. After their defeat to Notre Dame, silently, they have been getting better each week. They are 7-0 in Conference play, and have the hopes of representing the Big 10 in the BCS. Michigan leads the Big 10 in scoring, with 31.2 PPG (29th nationally). Michigan has grinded out 164.7 rushing YPG (50th) and 224.0 passing YPG (47th). Chad Henne (QB) has had a great year, passing for 2188 yards, 19 TD, and 10 INT's. Henne is 2nd in the Big 10 in QB rating. Freshman running back Michael Hart leads the Big 10 with 1311 rushing yards and 8 TDs. Braylon Edwards leads the Big 10 in both receptions (76) and recieving yards (1049) this season. To go along with this balanced and efficient offense, Michigan has a great defense. On top of that, their defense plays even BETTER on the ROAD. The defense gives up 18.8 PPG (17th). They are third in the nation in rush defense on the road, allowing 86.0 rushing YPG @ 2.4 YPC. Michigan allows only 175.0 passing YPG (13th), and allows teams to complete only 50% of their passes (16th).
Ohio State will give it everything they have in this game, as this game is bigger than any bowl game they'll attend. But Michigan is clearly the more dominant team, on both sides of the ball. Expect Carr's club to put forth a balanced offensive attack and to limit the Buckeyes' effectiveness with a stubborn defensive stand. Everything's coming up roses for Michigan.
Georgia Tech + 6
Virginia is in a real tough spot here. They lost to Miami last weekend, ending Miami's 2 game losing streak. But Virginia is still a good team with a good defense. However, Virginia Tech may not deliver the best performance of the season. That was a big lostt to Miami, and there may be some motivational problems. Last weekend was the 2nd time this season for Virginia to prove whether they are a contender or a pretender, and failed both times. This could be a classic sandwich game, as they have rival Virginia Tech on tap next week. Virginia Tech will go bolwing at the end of the season, but not to any major bowl. They can't improve themselves and go to a major bowl, and lose all the tie breakers within conference. They will probably play hungover.
Geogia Tech has 6 wins already and is playing the best ball of the season lately. They have won 4 out of their last 5 games. Georgia Tech is 5-3 in the last 8 games between the two schools. This team will play their heart out and may even upset Virginia. Getting 7 points at home and Virginia's mental condition makes Georgia Tech a great play.
Wake Forest (4-5) at No. 13 Miami (7-2)
Wake Forest + 20
Miami finally ended its 2 game slide last weekend by defeateing Virginia. There was no way Miami was going to lose 3 games in a row. Miami will have some momentum coming into this game, after their tough road win. Miami is only 2-6 ATS when playing DD underdogs. This team plays to win, not necessarily to cover. Miami may be looking ahead at the Virginia Tech game (in 2 weeks), and take a win against Wake Forest for granted, causing sloppy play and mental mistakes. 20 Points will be too much to cover.
Wake Forest will not be going to a Bowl game. Therefore, they will probably look at this game as thier bowl game and will take this game very seriously. Wake Forest will be a determined team this weekend and will stay within the point spread.
No. 2 Oklahoma (10-0) at Baylor (3-7)
Baylor +37
Oklahoma and Bob Stoops got lots of heat after last weekends game with Nebraska. Oklahoma was attempting to run up the score, and failed. Nebraska was able to break out a run and get a game-ending fieldgoal. That fieldgoal cost Oklahoma the shutout and cost Oklahoma the ATS win. Because of the negative publicity Stoops received on this game, he will look to go to Waco, win the game, and get out. It won't matter whether OU beats Baylor by 20 points, or by 50 points. Moreover, OU seems to be having trouble covering against Baylor at Waco. Stoops will not leave his starters in all game because he doesn't want to risk injuries nor does he need to run up the score.
Baylor is a silent covering machine. They have a piss poor record, and a terrible conference record, but are 5-3-1 ATS this year. Baylor is 7-3 when playing at home, and this year is 3-0-1 ATS at home. Some how, superior teams just have a problem covering the spread when in Baylor. The win over A&M may give this team some confidence in that they may believe they can hang in their with the big boys. And don't forget about the DD Home dog trend that has been doing so well this year. Baylor has had a tough schedule, and has lost most of their games, but they continue to work hard and keep playing.
The outcome of this game will be a lot similar to that of the Texas game. OU will play starters for a half and then pull them once they are up by 3 or 4 scores. Baylor will get a few trash touchdowns and cover the spread, just as they have done in the past.
No. 19 Boston College (7-2) at Temple (2-8)
Temple +14
Boston College is in a troubling spot right now. This is the 2nd to last game for Boston College in the Big East, then they are going to the ACC. Boston College may make it to a BCS bowl. BC is a good, well-coached team. They don't make many mental mistakes. Boston College still cannot run the football at only 133.2 RYG (79th) putting added pressure on the quarterback. Paul Peterson has thrown for 2243 yards, with 15 Touchdowns and a whopping 10 Interceptions.
Temple has covered 5 games straight now, and have covered 7 of their last 9. This proves that although they have a losing record, they refuse to throw in the towel and keep on trying. They had an emotional win over Syracuse last weekend, and the momentum may carry over into this game. Look for them to give Boston College a tough time this weekend. This is Temple's last game in the Big East. Walter Washington has 1924 passing yards, with 8 touchdowns on the year and only 5 interceptions. Look for Temple to stay within the pointspread in this game.
No. 16 Tennessee (7-2) at Vanderbilt (2-8)
Tennessee -12.5
Tennessee is in a good spot here to win the SEC East. Tennessee has won the last 8 games against Vanderbilt, allowing Vandy to score an average of only 6.6 points! They have covered 5 of the last 6 matchups as well, including shutting Vandy out the last 3 meetings! Tennessee is having some QB troubles, but they are a talented team, and will probably play Rick Clausen, who seems like a pretty cabale QB. In addition, Tennessee is coming off of a much needed bye-week to heal up, and give some of their relieving players practice time and allowing Clausen to study up on the offense.
Vanderbilt just does not match up well with Tennessee. They have had a dismal year, and seem to come unwound during the second half of play (Kentucky!!!). I think, from a psychological standpoint, Vanderbilt is going to this game already knowing they will get defeated, and therefore may only go through the motions. They have lost their last 3 games, and failed to cover in the last 2 games. Not to mention, Vanderbilt is only averaging 17.9 (108th) points per game. Removing the cupcake games, Vanderbilt has allowed an average of 30.5 ppg (To Georgia, LSU, FLA, SC). Also, in those 4 games, Vanderbilt has only put up 8.25 ppg. Vanderbilt is giving up 190.3 Rushing YPG (91st), a whopping number that includes the previously excluded cupcake teams. They've also given up 17 rushing touchdowns this season. In the air, Vandy is allowing their opponents to complete 70% of their passes (113th). Florida put up 500 yards on this team on November 6th. Here's another trend for you, they're 0-9 after playing Kentucky.
Vanderbilt is straight up outclassed. There is a lot of value in this line. Tennessee can establish a run game, relieving pressure off Clausen, so that he doesn't have to force plays. Expect Houston (RB) to far exceed his average number of carries this weekend. Vandy has been shutout the last 3 years, which says a whole lot about the way these teams have been matching up recently.
Oregon (5-5) at Oregon State (5-5)
Oregon +4
First off, Oregon State has some off-field issues after supsending three players including last week's star receiver, Anthony Wheat-Brown. It's hard to say how much of a distraction this is, but IS a distraction. Both teams need this win to become Bowl eligible, not to mention, this is the Civil War.
Oregon State is the 2nd worse running team in the nation with just 74.1 rushing yards per game. That is terrible. Because of this, the Beavers put it in the air a lot. They rank 21st in the country with 271.3 TPY per game. However, they are only have a 40% pass completion percentage, which is 113th of all D1 Teams. Even though they catch it less than half the time, they attempt to pass about 47.5 times per game (2nd). The Quarterback for Oregan State is Derek Anderson. The talented senior has thrown for a whopping 10,540 yards in his career with 71 touchdown passes, but he has also pitched 56 interceptions! After a strong period in the middle of the season where he was sharp, he has thrown six interceptions in the last two games! He is already at 16 INT's for the year. The Beavers are prone to mental mistakes, as they turn the ball over 2.7 times per game (110th) in the nation and commit 8.6 penalties per game (110th) losing 77.8 yards per game (112th). They are decent on defense, allowing 200.9 (45th) passing yards and 124.0 (30th) rushing yards. Oregon puts up 20.5 (106th) points on offense at home, while allowing 25.8 (86th) points the visitor. team.
Oregon, the better team, is getting points! On the road, Oregon is 4-0ATS so far this year. And, Oregon has covered 5 of the last 6 games. Oregon has had 2 back to back tough losses (Barely losing @ California (1 point) and to UCLA (12 points)). The Duck's offense turns the ball over 1.5 times per game (32nd) this year. Winning the TO margin is huge in rivalry games. Oregon State can't and won't run the ball, and will put it in the air. The Ducks have a pretty good pass defense, letting teams complete about 50% of their passes wracking up 201.7 passing yards (48th). Kellen Clemens looks like a pretty solid QB, completing 61.2% of his passes, and wracking up 2422 yards, 19 passing TD's and only 7 INT's. He rushed for a TD in the game last week with UCLA. Oregan has gotten a solid performance out of Terrence Whitehead as well, averaging 1034 yards and 6 TD's. Also, Demetrius Williams (43 catches, 539 yards, one TD), who missed last week's game with a toe injury, is expected to return to action.
Oregon, the slightly better team, with a more balanced offense, that comits less mental mistakes, getting points looks solid.
No. 7 Michigan (9-1) at Ohio State (6-4)
Michigan -5
Ohio State is having trouble on and off the field. Off the field, Maurice Clarett is causing lots of trouble. On the field, they are having their troubles as well. Ohio State has had a rough year, losing 4 of their last 7 games. The offense is where this team struggles. They are 10th in the Big 10 (out of 11), with 22 PPG, which is also 89th nationally. They are last in the conference in passing yards per game at only 167.5, which is also 98th nationally. They are 8th in the conference and 80th nationally in rushing yards, with 132.6 RYG. They continue to make mental mistakes as their offense averages 2.2 turnovers per game (87th). Whether Justin Zwick (shoulder) or Troy Smith starts at QB, neither have really been that impressive, completing the pass 50% (94th) of the time. Zwick has 5TD's and 6INT's, Smith has 6TD's and 3INT's. Antonio Pitman is leading the running game, he has only cranked out 374 rushing yards @ 46.8 per game. Ohio State's defense has been playing better than the offense, allowing 19.1 PPG (23rd), 134.5 rushing YPG (48th), and 195.4 passing YPG (32nd). Suprisingly, they are 1st in the league, allowing only 9.9 yards per pass.
Michigan is a very well-rounded team. After their defeat to Notre Dame, silently, they have been getting better each week. They are 7-0 in Conference play, and have the hopes of representing the Big 10 in the BCS. Michigan leads the Big 10 in scoring, with 31.2 PPG (29th nationally). Michigan has grinded out 164.7 rushing YPG (50th) and 224.0 passing YPG (47th). Chad Henne (QB) has had a great year, passing for 2188 yards, 19 TD, and 10 INT's. Henne is 2nd in the Big 10 in QB rating. Freshman running back Michael Hart leads the Big 10 with 1311 rushing yards and 8 TDs. Braylon Edwards leads the Big 10 in both receptions (76) and recieving yards (1049) this season. To go along with this balanced and efficient offense, Michigan has a great defense. On top of that, their defense plays even BETTER on the ROAD. The defense gives up 18.8 PPG (17th). They are third in the nation in rush defense on the road, allowing 86.0 rushing YPG @ 2.4 YPC. Michigan allows only 175.0 passing YPG (13th), and allows teams to complete only 50% of their passes (16th).
Ohio State will give it everything they have in this game, as this game is bigger than any bowl game they'll attend. But Michigan is clearly the more dominant team, on both sides of the ball. Expect Carr's club to put forth a balanced offensive attack and to limit the Buckeyes' effectiveness with a stubborn defensive stand. Everything's coming up roses for Michigan.
Comment