Tweet
The Line:
Packers - 6.5 and 51.5
My Play is:
OVER 51.5
The weather is cold but it's not that cold. It was colder in Denver last night and the snow was falling. Sure looked like an UNDER but crazy stuff happens and it's just as hard to defend in bad weather (Chump Bailey) as it is to play on offense. Bottom line is, cap this game without thinking about the weather.
The St. Louis Rams are coming off a 37-17 loss to the BUFFALO BILLS and have now dropped three of their last four games. The general public still doesn't realise that this is not the same Rams team as we have all come to know as part of the league's Elite 8. This is a Rams team that has a very small offensive line and that gives up a ton of yards. The Rams are currently averaging only 93.2 rushing yards per road game on 4.1 yards per carry. If Mike Martz is smart, he will use the running game tonight against a Green Bay team that allows 157.6 rushing yards per home game on 5.4 yards per carry. Stephen Jackson and Marhsall Faulk are good to go and there is no reason for them not to each have 1 TD tonight. In the air, Marc Bulger is averaging 251.4 passing yards per road game on 6.9 yards per pass attempt. However, he does average 1.6 iunterceptions per road game and the Packers secondary will most likely have a PICK 6 tonight. The best part about taking the OVER is that St. Louis is converting 40.6% of 3rd down chances on the road, while Green Bay allow 40.1% of 3rd downs to be converted at Lambeau. The Rams are also 81.8% on 4th down converts on the road this season. All in all, if the Rams to win this game, they will come out firing against a Green Bay defense that allows opposing QB's to complete 63.6% of their passes when visiting Lambeau. Also, GB's defense allows a whopping 7.7 yards per pass attempt. This is going to be a scoring-fest.
The Green Bay Packers are coming off a 16-13 win over Houston and have now won five straight games. When Brett Favre gets in a groove, we all know how he plays and we all know that there is no stopping him. He leads an offense that is currently averaging 412.8 total yards per home game this season on 6.5 yards per play. If Ahman Green can limit his fumble tonight, there is no question he might have a career night. He leads a rushing game that is averaging 138.8 rushing yards per home game on a whopping 5.5 yards per carry. They are up against a St. Louis front line that is very small and that allows 144.6 rushing yards per road game on 4.9 yards per carry. Brett Favre is used to cold weather and he usually plays his best football in this kind of stuff. He is averaging 274.2 passing yards per home game this season on 7.2 yards per pass attempt. He is completing 63.0% of his passes at home and is working behind an offensive line that only lets him get sacked 0.2 times per home game (thats incredible). The Rams don't have much defense and they are currently allowing opposing home QB's to complete 65.3% of their passes. If you give Brett Favre that much time to find an open receiver, he will and he will put some points on the board. The Rams also allow 7.2 yards per pass attempt and allow opposing home QB to have a QB Rating of 104.4. The Packers are converting 49.2% of their 3rd down chances at home and the fact that they fumble twice per game should work to our advantage if the Rams can recover deep in Packer territory. Bulger and Favre are used to the MNF Spotlight and both will treat us to an ole classic shootout.
I might play the packers as well but that 6.5 has the look of a good old vegas trap. Might be a real tight game.
Packers - 6.5 and 51.5
My Play is:
OVER 51.5
The weather is cold but it's not that cold. It was colder in Denver last night and the snow was falling. Sure looked like an UNDER but crazy stuff happens and it's just as hard to defend in bad weather (Chump Bailey) as it is to play on offense. Bottom line is, cap this game without thinking about the weather.
The St. Louis Rams are coming off a 37-17 loss to the BUFFALO BILLS and have now dropped three of their last four games. The general public still doesn't realise that this is not the same Rams team as we have all come to know as part of the league's Elite 8. This is a Rams team that has a very small offensive line and that gives up a ton of yards. The Rams are currently averaging only 93.2 rushing yards per road game on 4.1 yards per carry. If Mike Martz is smart, he will use the running game tonight against a Green Bay team that allows 157.6 rushing yards per home game on 5.4 yards per carry. Stephen Jackson and Marhsall Faulk are good to go and there is no reason for them not to each have 1 TD tonight. In the air, Marc Bulger is averaging 251.4 passing yards per road game on 6.9 yards per pass attempt. However, he does average 1.6 iunterceptions per road game and the Packers secondary will most likely have a PICK 6 tonight. The best part about taking the OVER is that St. Louis is converting 40.6% of 3rd down chances on the road, while Green Bay allow 40.1% of 3rd downs to be converted at Lambeau. The Rams are also 81.8% on 4th down converts on the road this season. All in all, if the Rams to win this game, they will come out firing against a Green Bay defense that allows opposing QB's to complete 63.6% of their passes when visiting Lambeau. Also, GB's defense allows a whopping 7.7 yards per pass attempt. This is going to be a scoring-fest.
The Green Bay Packers are coming off a 16-13 win over Houston and have now won five straight games. When Brett Favre gets in a groove, we all know how he plays and we all know that there is no stopping him. He leads an offense that is currently averaging 412.8 total yards per home game this season on 6.5 yards per play. If Ahman Green can limit his fumble tonight, there is no question he might have a career night. He leads a rushing game that is averaging 138.8 rushing yards per home game on a whopping 5.5 yards per carry. They are up against a St. Louis front line that is very small and that allows 144.6 rushing yards per road game on 4.9 yards per carry. Brett Favre is used to cold weather and he usually plays his best football in this kind of stuff. He is averaging 274.2 passing yards per home game this season on 7.2 yards per pass attempt. He is completing 63.0% of his passes at home and is working behind an offensive line that only lets him get sacked 0.2 times per home game (thats incredible). The Rams don't have much defense and they are currently allowing opposing home QB's to complete 65.3% of their passes. If you give Brett Favre that much time to find an open receiver, he will and he will put some points on the board. The Rams also allow 7.2 yards per pass attempt and allow opposing home QB to have a QB Rating of 104.4. The Packers are converting 49.2% of their 3rd down chances at home and the fact that they fumble twice per game should work to our advantage if the Rams can recover deep in Packer territory. Bulger and Favre are used to the MNF Spotlight and both will treat us to an ole classic shootout.
I might play the packers as well but that 6.5 has the look of a good old vegas trap. Might be a real tight game.
Comment