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NE @ Mia -10 42 O/U
Trends:
A rolling 12-1 NE playing against a falling 2-11 Mia team. NE is 5-1 S/U (5-1 ATS) on the road versus MIA 1-5 S/U (1-5 ATS). Last 10 meetings, NE has a slight 6-4 ATS edge over Mia (5-5 S/U).
Trap game?
NE will try to make short work of Mia tonite needing to keep pace with Pitt. There have been arguements where some believe that this game is a trap game where NE may be looking at next week's game versus the NYJ. Whoever believes that this is trap obvisouly has not followed one single NE game over the last couple years. How do you think NE pulled off such an incredible run S/U and 23-3-5 ATS the last 31 or so games? Because they haven't played one single potential trap game over the course of 2 seasons? It's because of Bellicheck and the way he gets his players FOCUSED on the game at hand. Each win is important regardless of who you are playing is what he preaches. The only flaw that I've seen so far is the loss to Pitt. It actually has helped NE refocus because they let their guard down. Furthermore, listening to the sports radio talk shows all week (I live in the Boston area), all the Patriots that were interviewed stressed how Mia is a good team and that they can not be overlooked. There was not one mention of next week's NYJ game other than the media trying to ask about. But no Pats player would comment on next week's game and all have replied that the only game they care about is tonite's game with Mia.
Interdivisional Rivalry?
Someone posted that this past weekend's game between rivals have all the underdogs either covering or winnning outright. Keep in mind that one has nothing to do with other. But keeping that train of thought, let's look at the AFC east interdivisional rivalries for Mia and NE. Mia has played 5 divisional games thus far, and they have lost all of them by at least 7 or more points. They lost by 10 to Buff, 27 to NYJ, 7 to Buff, 14 to NE, and 8 to Mia. NE on the other hand has won their divisional games by an average of 14 points over 4 divisional games; won by 23 over Buff, 6 over the NYJ, 14 over Mia, and 14 over Buff.
Resting Players?
The only way NE rest players is if they have a comfortable lead in the 4th quarter. Going back to the trap game mentality, Bellicheck will not let his players lose focus nor will he contradict what he preaches by benching players. In the past new conferences he's been in after blowout wins, his replies to comments about him running up the score were that if and only if the other team concedes the game and do not try to score, only then will he let his team let up during the course of the game. He has seed too many come from behind fiascos that he will not let the other team get into that position to do so. If they beat us, they earned it rather than us letting them win. In addition, with Pitt winning this past weekend, the players are motivated to stay on pace to catch HFA. If they had a choice, they would rather play at home in a Conf. Final game with Pitt than in Pitt if they were to meet up
MNF performance?
Pats played one game on MNF and they beat KC 27-19. If a high-powered offense like KC can only score 19 on NE def, could you see Mia score more than 14? Keep in mind, in the KC game NE has the same defensive injuries that they will have tonite. On the other hand, the only MNF game that Mia played was a "divisional" game against NYJ and they got blown out 41-14. In that game, Curtis Martin and Lamont Jordan both rushed for 115 yds and scored a TD each.
Tonite's game should be very similar to that NYJ-Mia game where I see Dillon having a big game. NE features a #8th overall Rushing offense against the league bottom Mia #29th ranked Rushing defense. Furthermore, Mia has major LB injuries which should have Dillon licking his chops. Although, both teams are aware of this huge mismatch, there is still no guarantee that NE will pound the run. Last week against Cinci (28th ranked Rushing defense), they thought the same thing and threw an extra defender in the box. NE only a couple of times rushed on 1st down. This threw off the Cinci defense and resulted in a respectable Tom Brady 260 yd/2 TD day. The Pats will have to do something similar to throw off a Mia defense that has given Brady a tough time in the past.
For Mia, they do have an impressive #2 ranked passing defense. However, this ranking is inflated because Mia has been for the most part playing from behind and the other team leading and eating the clock by running. This may also explain Mia's #29th ranked Rushing defense. To beat NE, Mia will have to throw against NE's #17th ranked Passing defense because Mia's Morris or Minor (think he's hurt) will not be able to run against NE's #9th ranked Rushing defense. More on the interviews this past week with NE defensive players, they admit they were embarrassed a little for giving up 3 TDs and over 300 yards through the air last week to the Bengals. They stressed that the passing defense is something that they are strongly focusing on for this week's game. A lot have to do with how to compensate for the depleted secondary. They have been winnning with a depleted core and they will find a way to continue to win despite the setback.
Prediction
Because this is a MNF game and it is a divisional game, Mia will be pumped and this game should be close from the outset all the way to the half. I'm 'capping this to be a close 14-10 or 17-10 game by the end of the half to keep the interest of MNF viewers. Then NE, should open up and run away with a lead in the 3rd quarter because Mia will not be able to keep the same level of intesity throughout the whole game. Mia has only scored 13 pts all season in the 3rd quarter where NE has benefitted with 85 3rd quarter pts. 4th quarter will be boring where Dillon will get most of stats for the night and Feely throwing 1 or 2 picks trying desperately to catch up on a NE 2-3 scores lead. I don't see NE scoring 41 but it should be still be high and comparable to what NYJ did to Mia. Mia scored 14 on the NYJ, so they should get about 13-17 pts on NE. I see the Pats winning by at least 2 scores easily.
My play:
Pats -10 for a couple hundy
NE @ Mia -10 42 O/U
Trends:
A rolling 12-1 NE playing against a falling 2-11 Mia team. NE is 5-1 S/U (5-1 ATS) on the road versus MIA 1-5 S/U (1-5 ATS). Last 10 meetings, NE has a slight 6-4 ATS edge over Mia (5-5 S/U).
Trap game?
NE will try to make short work of Mia tonite needing to keep pace with Pitt. There have been arguements where some believe that this game is a trap game where NE may be looking at next week's game versus the NYJ. Whoever believes that this is trap obvisouly has not followed one single NE game over the last couple years. How do you think NE pulled off such an incredible run S/U and 23-3-5 ATS the last 31 or so games? Because they haven't played one single potential trap game over the course of 2 seasons? It's because of Bellicheck and the way he gets his players FOCUSED on the game at hand. Each win is important regardless of who you are playing is what he preaches. The only flaw that I've seen so far is the loss to Pitt. It actually has helped NE refocus because they let their guard down. Furthermore, listening to the sports radio talk shows all week (I live in the Boston area), all the Patriots that were interviewed stressed how Mia is a good team and that they can not be overlooked. There was not one mention of next week's NYJ game other than the media trying to ask about. But no Pats player would comment on next week's game and all have replied that the only game they care about is tonite's game with Mia.
Interdivisional Rivalry?
Someone posted that this past weekend's game between rivals have all the underdogs either covering or winnning outright. Keep in mind that one has nothing to do with other. But keeping that train of thought, let's look at the AFC east interdivisional rivalries for Mia and NE. Mia has played 5 divisional games thus far, and they have lost all of them by at least 7 or more points. They lost by 10 to Buff, 27 to NYJ, 7 to Buff, 14 to NE, and 8 to Mia. NE on the other hand has won their divisional games by an average of 14 points over 4 divisional games; won by 23 over Buff, 6 over the NYJ, 14 over Mia, and 14 over Buff.
Resting Players?
The only way NE rest players is if they have a comfortable lead in the 4th quarter. Going back to the trap game mentality, Bellicheck will not let his players lose focus nor will he contradict what he preaches by benching players. In the past new conferences he's been in after blowout wins, his replies to comments about him running up the score were that if and only if the other team concedes the game and do not try to score, only then will he let his team let up during the course of the game. He has seed too many come from behind fiascos that he will not let the other team get into that position to do so. If they beat us, they earned it rather than us letting them win. In addition, with Pitt winning this past weekend, the players are motivated to stay on pace to catch HFA. If they had a choice, they would rather play at home in a Conf. Final game with Pitt than in Pitt if they were to meet up
MNF performance?
Pats played one game on MNF and they beat KC 27-19. If a high-powered offense like KC can only score 19 on NE def, could you see Mia score more than 14? Keep in mind, in the KC game NE has the same defensive injuries that they will have tonite. On the other hand, the only MNF game that Mia played was a "divisional" game against NYJ and they got blown out 41-14. In that game, Curtis Martin and Lamont Jordan both rushed for 115 yds and scored a TD each.
Tonite's game should be very similar to that NYJ-Mia game where I see Dillon having a big game. NE features a #8th overall Rushing offense against the league bottom Mia #29th ranked Rushing defense. Furthermore, Mia has major LB injuries which should have Dillon licking his chops. Although, both teams are aware of this huge mismatch, there is still no guarantee that NE will pound the run. Last week against Cinci (28th ranked Rushing defense), they thought the same thing and threw an extra defender in the box. NE only a couple of times rushed on 1st down. This threw off the Cinci defense and resulted in a respectable Tom Brady 260 yd/2 TD day. The Pats will have to do something similar to throw off a Mia defense that has given Brady a tough time in the past.
For Mia, they do have an impressive #2 ranked passing defense. However, this ranking is inflated because Mia has been for the most part playing from behind and the other team leading and eating the clock by running. This may also explain Mia's #29th ranked Rushing defense. To beat NE, Mia will have to throw against NE's #17th ranked Passing defense because Mia's Morris or Minor (think he's hurt) will not be able to run against NE's #9th ranked Rushing defense. More on the interviews this past week with NE defensive players, they admit they were embarrassed a little for giving up 3 TDs and over 300 yards through the air last week to the Bengals. They stressed that the passing defense is something that they are strongly focusing on for this week's game. A lot have to do with how to compensate for the depleted secondary. They have been winnning with a depleted core and they will find a way to continue to win despite the setback.
Prediction
Because this is a MNF game and it is a divisional game, Mia will be pumped and this game should be close from the outset all the way to the half. I'm 'capping this to be a close 14-10 or 17-10 game by the end of the half to keep the interest of MNF viewers. Then NE, should open up and run away with a lead in the 3rd quarter because Mia will not be able to keep the same level of intesity throughout the whole game. Mia has only scored 13 pts all season in the 3rd quarter where NE has benefitted with 85 3rd quarter pts. 4th quarter will be boring where Dillon will get most of stats for the night and Feely throwing 1 or 2 picks trying desperately to catch up on a NE 2-3 scores lead. I don't see NE scoring 41 but it should be still be high and comparable to what NYJ did to Mia. Mia scored 14 on the NYJ, so they should get about 13-17 pts on NE. I see the Pats winning by at least 2 scores easily.
My play:
Pats -10 for a couple hundy