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**Tinfish** · 05-07-05, 09:53 AM

here is my analysis and my wagers for the day

1)Sort It Out
How many horses will be in front of this closer at the 1/4 pole? With a 20 horse field and 10-15 of them at equal caliber, circling this many coming home could be asking just a little too much for the Whirlaway winner.

2)Andromeda�s Hero
No stakes wins. Least talked about Zito entry; 2-hole (good or bad?; No angle, but stranger things have happened the first Saturday in May. If AH can stay close early and not get trapped inside this improving colt could wear the roses just like his daddy, Fusiachi Pegasus.

3)Sun King
If you throw the Blue Grass out and say that SK will get a good start while hugging the rail with only a couple in front to gobble up down the stretch, then this one may be your choice. Quite possible to try and go wire-to-wire, as well. Include in all exotics if you feel this way. But yet, I say it won�t happen.

4)Noble Causeway
Wonder what Zito will do? Let NC go and try and steal it? Or see if he can�t fall right in behind a couple and sit in the �garden spot�? Everyone knows that the Derby can�t be stolen, so look for NC to have a good trip and be in perfect position as they turn for home. If he doesn�t win, he will have no excuses.

5)Coin Silver
Is he coming into his own or was the slop in the Lexington just what he likes? He appears that he will be stuck in traffic with his average, at best, early speed and will die in the stretch if called upon to make up for this weakness early. Looks like a probable toss for me, so bet the farm on him.....hehe

6)High Limit
Maybe the Blue Grass was a learning experience and this 3 for 4 colt will rate comfortably and let his speed bloodline loose late and get some of the money. With top-flight connections it will be difficult to leave him out of the exotics.

7)Flower Alley
The shades will be on and this may help FA be a tad more consistent for the whole race. Not bred for this race but it�s impossible to measure the heart of this tough colt. Has a chance to pull off the upset.

8)Greater Good
Don�t put too much stock into his Rebel over a loose Rockport Harbor. He showed his true colors in the Arkansas Derby finishing 12 lengths behind Afleet Alex. Breeding is shoddy at best with only one sibling foal that did much and it was a sprinter. This horse will not be in the money.

9)Greeley�s Galaxy
Look for GG to quite possibly come flying late under Desormeaux and if they are anywhere within 10 lengths, the race will be on. From what I gather, the connections are trying to slow GG down a little bit in the early going and then take full advantage of this horse�s ability to finish them off in the stretch. After two sprints, he has taken to two turns quite nicely and would not be shocking to see him be 3 for 3 on routes after Saturday.

10)Giacomo
This one could surprise some people. Colt could very easily get up for some of the money or could finish 20 lengths out. Appears to like it the farther that he goes but with him never raced anywhere other than So Cal, who really knows? Will probably have him involved on the bottom of the exotics.

11)High Fly
Here�s another �stay at home� colt that has not raced outside of S. Florida, but has proven to be the best against some stiff competition in the Sunshine State and doing it somewhat easily or so it appears. If he hasn�t let it all hang out yet and he is called upon to do so on Saturday, he could be in the circle when it is over.

12)Afleet Alex
If the Derby has slow fractions like the Arkansas Derby did, then count this one in. If it has a speed dual or two, then count this one in. Either way, AA can run with the best of them. The only drawback may be the fact that he has not won a Gr.I, finishing second to Wilko in the Breeders� Cup Juvenile & second to Proud Accolade in the Champagne. The only other time that he didn�t cross the wire ahead of all the others was in the Rebel when he was hurt slightly and Rose was not on board.. Rose is in the irons on Saturday and the horse seems to like the CD track with two bullet works. DO NOT LEAVE HIM OUT OF ANY WAGER !

13)Spanish Chestnut
It doesn�t look like there is no way to slow this early speed horse down. He loves to take the lead and should do the same here. With the outside post he will be wildly rushing to get there and this will wear him out. Look for this colt to appear to be going backwards by the 1/4 pole.

14)Wilko
Has all the tools to hit the board, but there�s only one thing that will prevent this and it can be summed up with this- BC Juvenile winner. May have him on the bottom of some tris and supers, but with the BC Juve Jinx hanging over his head, I can�t see do anything else with him.

15)Bandini
The slow fractions coming home in the Blue Grass will turn some cappers away from this one, but I have to wonder why. When you look at these times it is easy to see why why they were what they were. When a horse goes from a couple of lengths out at the midway point to a comfortable six length win, it makes me think that there is quite a bit left in the tank. Outside post along with the �hurry up� at the start workouts may be a hinderence but will include this one for exotics and very possible win.

16)Bellamy Road
If he gets into a major speed dual with Spanish Chestnut, then he may falter. But if it is just your ordinary average type of dual, then look for the freak to pull away coming home. Only negative is that he may be due for a bounce after the incredible Wood and having only two races under his belt this year. Well, there�s really another negative, he is partially owned by George Steinbrenner and if George orders some strange tactics, BR may end up right where the Yankees are currently, in last place.

17)Don�t Get Mad
Looked impressive in the Derby Trial, but just don�t see how he can hang with these after a one week turnaround while still being unproven at two turns. Will probably toss this one.

18)Closing Argument
Can he compete with only 2 races so far this year? Was beaten soundly in the Blue Grass and probably wouldn�t have fared much better even with a clean trip. Does have a win over High Fly and this is making me lean towards adding him on the bottom of the tris and supers.

19)Going Wild
If ever you could toss a Lewis/Lukas horse, this one is it. He does get Valdiva to ride and they posted his highest Beyer last December, but it was in a sprint. If Lukas hits the board with this one, it will be a helluva accomplishment, despite the two nice works at CD.

20)Buzzards Bay
What a terrible post for this versatile colt. Doesn�t have enough early speed to get close at the start and how can he save ground coming from the 20-hole? If he gets in the top it will be a miracle.

$50 EX BOX- 9,11,12 ($300)
$20 EX P/W- 9,11,12 / 6,9,11,12,15,16 ($300)
$20 TRI P/W 9,11,12 / 9,11,12 / 6,9,11,12,15,16 ($480)
$10 TRI P/W 9,11,12 / 6,9,11,12,15,16 / 6,9,11,12,15,16 ($600)
$10 TRI P/W 9,11,12 / 6,9,11,12,15,16 / 3,4,6,7,9,11,12,14,15,16 ($1500)
$10 SUPER P/W 9,11,12 / 9,11,12 / 6,9,11,12,15,16 / 3,4,6,7,9,11,12,14,15,16 ($2160)

**Tinfish** · 05-07-05, 05:44 PM

what a race!!.

7 across coming down the stretch was pretty sweet.

a 50-1 horse winning?
a 50-1 horse placing?

the largest exacta on the board hitting?

the trifecta of the 10,18,12 horses paid $133,000 for every dollar bet.

damn!

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Horses - Kentucky Derby - May 7th

Horses - Kentucky Derby - May 7th

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